Has Moose Lady Hoffmaned Alaska?

The major surprise in last night's primaries is that Sarah Palin may indeed have the star power in her own home state to bring down fellow Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, and like 2008's general Senate election in the state, this one's going to go down to absentee ballots in an election where nearly everyone was expecting Murkowski to win solidly.

Unofficial returns as of this morning -- with 84.2 percent of precincts reporting -- showed Miller leading with 45,188 votes to Murkowski's 42,633 votes. That's Miller 51.5%-Murkowski 48.6%. What's more, the votes outstanding are from rural areas and 8,400 so-far-unreturned absentee ballots, so the final result won't be known for at least a week and might be undetermined until Sept. 8.

Whichever Republican wins, conventional wisdom takes a hit. As we reported, broad consensus both in Washington and Alaska was that Murkowski would win by a wide margin. If the senator pulls it off, it will be very close. There were few public polls, and they all showed Murkowski in the lead.

We took a look at several internal polls as well, which also showed her besting Miller. But Miller's folks sounded very confident this week in an interview with TPM. He had the backing of former Gov. Sarah Palin, conservative groups and the tea party.

The Anchorage Daily News reports this morning that Miller credited Palin last night.

If Murkowski had won easily despite Sarah Palin, it would have basically been the end of the line for Palin's popularity after a number of her endorsed candidates went down in flames along with her own favorability numbers.  But this situation (as much as it galls me to say it) gives her a massive boost:  Palin has all but singlehandedly removed Lisa Murkowski from office and that means she's very much back in the game.

Despite being personally unpopular, she has all but driven out a Republican incumbent Senator.

Things just got real interesting.

[UPDATE] Per Steve M. in the comments, the Daily Beast drops the other snowshoe:

The ongoing battle for who won the Republican primary in the Alaska Senate race will come down to the absentee ballots, but in an exclusive interview with The Daily Beast, a source within the Murkowski campaign says they know of one possible legal option to pursue a third-party run. If Murkowski is not victorious when the absentee ballots are counted and decides to wage an Independent party bid, they might consider using this option, which the source wouldn't describe, but did confirm they were seriously looking at.

"We are going to take a look at them and see whether the option is there or not, but it's a decision she (Murkowski) has to make," the Murkowski camp source said. "There is an option I know of."

Oh my.  A Murkowski independent bid might actually give Alaska two Democratic Senators...and oh yes, Miller hasn't officially won yet, either.  I wouldn't quite pop those corks yet, Palinistas.