Last Call

I'm hoping Marc Ambinder is smoking something, because I really have a problem believing that the state of Ohio is lost to the Dems the way Michigan was to the Republicans in 2008.

With the past few days given over to Democratic triumphalism, the reality is that the big picture remains roughly the same for Democrats. In Ohio, it's getting so bad for Democrats that the Democratic Governors Association, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee are actively weighing their level of commitment. 

Public and private polling from the state suggests that Democrats will lose the governor's mansion, currently held by Ted Strickland, the Senate race (for an open seat that was held by a Republican), and at least four House races (OH 01, OH 15, OH 13, OH 16). Strickland's troubles have surprised some Democrats, since he's seemed to defy gravity for much of the year.

If Ambinder's right, then pulling out of the state will probably cost the Dems at least two more additional House races on top of those 4, especially OH 6 and OH 18 on the east side of the state.  It's hard to imagine, but the loss of six House seats for the Dems in Ohio alone would indicate the kind of complete tsunami election that the GOP fantasizes about daily.  It's one thing to see Steve Dreihaus go down here in Cincy, but losing six seats to the GOP at this point would leave only 4 Democrats, and if Ohio loses two congressional districts due to the Census, two of those four Democrats would be wiped out.

Pulling out of Ohio would be devastating news to Democrats in the rest of the country.  I don't see it happening.  Doing so would all but assure Ohio as a red state.