A new Siena poll in New York finds Andrew Cuomo (D) leading Carl Paladino (R) in the race for governor by 33 points, 57% to 24%, and Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D) leading Joe DioGuardi (R) in the U.S. Senate race by 24 points, 57% to 31% -- very different from the latest Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA polls that show much closer races.
Two things to keep in mind: The Siena poll tests registered voters, not likely voters. And in the race for governor, the poll includes Rick Lazio as the Conservative Party candidate -- he gets 8% of the vote -- even though he's not yet announced whether he'll stay on the ballot.
So the real issue here may be Qunnipiac's likely voter model, which seems to indicate that so many more Republicans that wouldn't normally turn out for a midterm are going to do so, and that so many fewer Democrats are going to do so, that it's enough to cause a 20 plus point difference in polls with other outfits.
That means there may be serious issues with Quinnipiac's likely voter model. I'm hoping Nate Silver would take a look at this in the next couple weeks, because usually Q-polls have been pretty decently accurate (and certainly not a Rasmussen unit or three off in favor of the GOP.)
It also means it's worth looking at recent Q-polls in states like Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania too. Things may not be as bad for the Dems as once thought in those states, especially Ohio.
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