Republicans are winning eight out of 10 competitive open House seats surveyed in a groundbreaking new poll by The Hill.
Taken on top of 11 GOP leads out of 12 freshman Democratic districts polled last week, The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll points toward 19 Republican victories out of 22 races, while Democrats win only two and one is tied.
The Democrats are DOOOOOOOOOOOOOO...wait a minute...(reads down a few paragraphs:)
Many races are tight — 12 of the 22 fall within the margin of error — but the margins, though slim, preponderantly favor the GOP.
The Oct. 2-7 poll examined 10 competitive open House seats; Republicans hold two of the districts and Democrats control all the others. Republicans are winning in eight of those races, while Democrats are leading in two. Six races fell within the poll’s margin of error.
Oh. So...in reality, nearly all these races are actually effectively tied, and this being a midterm year the key will be turnout on actual voting, as well as people increasingly using early voting, and how many of those votes have been locked in, which we have no polling on.
In other words, it's still anyone's ball game. Gosh, thanks for being clear about that, guys.
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