Will The Tea Party Sink Prop 19?

Angry Tea Party conservative seniors are set to vote in huge numbers in California, and the likely voter models are looking pretty grim for the Prop 19 effort to legalize marijuana.  The reality is that pro-Prop 19 side is getting crushed in the ad wars as stations won't air them.

The latest poll finds Prop 19 down by 12 points.

The poll, a joint effort by The Times and USC College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, found the measure favored by Democrats and independents, but overwhelmingly opposed by Republicans. Men were split, and women were leaning against it.

Both sides consider mothers a key swing vote and have debated whether the measure would do more to keep marijuana out of the hands of children or would increase use.

Likely voters younger than 40 are in favor of it by 48% to 37%, but older voters, who say they are more enthusiastic about voting in this election, are not. Among likely voters 65 and over, only 28% support the measure, while 59% said they were opposed.

The measure, which needs a majority vote to pass, would allow Californians who are at least 21 to grow up to 25 square feet of marijuana and possess up to an ounce. Cities and counties could authorize commercial cultivation and sales, and could impose taxes.

Some polls have shown Latino voters, initially against legalization, swinging toward it, but the Times/USC poll found they are opposed to it by 2 to 1. White voters also oppose the measure.

Supporters of legalization have sought to appeal to minorities by highlighting statistics showing that they are arrested for marijuana possession at higher rates than whites. Opponents note that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger already has signed a law making possession of an ounce an infraction.

The poll found Proposition 19 leading only in the Central Coast counties and running far behind in the largely conservative Central Valley and in Southern California.

So yeah, apparently America is still controlled by cranky retirees.  Why?  They actually bother to vote.