The Sixteen Percent Solution

Sixteen percent:  that's Nate Silver's final odds of the Dems keeping the House.

Our forecasting model, which is based on a consensus of indicators including generic ballot polling, polling of local districts, expert forecasts, and fund-raising data, now predicts an average Republican gain of 54 seats (up one from 53 seats in last night’s forecast), and a median Republican gain of 55 seats. These figures would exceed the 52 seats that Republicans won from Democrats in the 1994 midterms.

Moreover, given the exceptionally large number of seats in play, the Republicans’ gains could be significantly higher; they have better than a one-in-three chance of winning at least 60 seats, a one-in-six chance of winning at least 70 seats, and have some realistic chance of a gain exceeding 80 seats, according to the model.

However, the same factors that could provide Republicans with extraordinarily large gains if their turnout is strong tomorrow could also cut against them if Democrats turn out in greater numbers than expected, or if the polling has underestimated the Democrats’ standing.

It's that last caveat that I think will break in the Dems favor in a lot of close races.  Yes, a lot of seats are in play, 100+ by some counts.  The odds of the GOP taking all 100 of them are slim to none, but if the polls are underestimating the Dems, it could be a very shocking night.  Nate also has his reasons to believe the Dems may survive this mess and it's worth a read.  He concludes:

The case that Democrats could do better than expected — not well, by any means, merely better than expected — rests a little more in the realm of what artists call negative space: not what there is, but in what there isn’t. There aren’t 50, or even more than about 25, districts in which Republican candidates are unambiguous favorites. There isn’t agreement among pollsters about how the enthusiasm gap is liable to manifest itself. There isn’t any one poll or one forecasting method that is clairvoyant, or that hasn’t made some pretty significant errors in the past.

Instead, the case for Democrats is basically: yes, the news is bad, it just isn’t exactly as bad as you think, or at least we can’t be sure that it is. This isn’t a sexy argument to make.

Nor, probably, will it turn out to be the correct one; more likely than not, Republicans will indeed win the House, and will do so by a significant margin. But just as Republicans could beat the consensus, Democrats could too, and nobody should be particularly shocked if they do.

Not a lot to hang your hat on as a Dem, but there are legitimate ways the Dems can hold the House, just as there are legitimate ways the Republicans could have the best midterm in a century.

Vote.  I did.  I live in freaking Kentucky.  Odds are pretty good you live in a state with somewhat better prospects for the Democrats.