Sunday, February 6, 2011

Denial Really Is A River In Egypt, Part 6

Egyptian banks are open for the first time in over a week, but massive lines reminiscent of old school bank runs are making plenty of Egyptians nervous.

Hundreds of Egyptians queued outside banks to withdraw funds as lenders opened for the first time in more than a week amid protests demanding the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. The pound dropped to the lowest level since 2005.

At a Cairo-based branch of Commercial International Bank Egypt SAE, the nation’s biggest publicly-traded lender, one man stood at the main door taking names of customers. “Banks need to open more branches,” Mahmoud Eliwa, a 68-year-old retiree who wanted to withdraw 5,000 pounds, said in an interview outside the bank. Eliwa left after learning he needed to wait for about 100 people before him.

The central bank moved 5 billion pounds ($854 million) of cash into the financial system as depositors gained access to their savings. The regulator, which has $36 billion in reserves and guarantees deposits, used military cargo planes to bring in the funds, Governor Farouk El-Okdah said yesterday on state-run television.

The demonstrations, which left at least 300 people dead according to the United Nations, roiled financial markets worldwide and sent yields on Egyptian bonds higher. The stock market remained closed for a sixth day after the benchmark EGX 30 Index tumbled 16 percent in the week to Jan. 27. 

Egypt's stock market and currency have taken a beating in the last week, too.  But if the banks are opening and people aren't protesting as much, it's quite possible that Mubarak may survive until September...or longer.  People in Egypt have bigger things to worry about, namely food, water, and income.

The window to oust Mubarak has all but passed.

[UPDATE]  The US is now backing the "gradual transition plan".  Mubarak will stay in power until September.   Coin flip on whether or not he "wins" re-election then.

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