Denial Really Is A River In Egypt, Part 7

All indications are that the Egyptian strikes today, threatening oil tanker traffic through the Suez Canal, were the final straw for the Powers That Be keeping Hosni Mubarak in power.

Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak is to step down tonight, two sources have told NBC News, losing his 30-year grip on power after 17 days of mass uprisings across the country.

NBC's Richard Engel reported that a high-ranking source inside the president's office said the newly appointed vice president, Omar Suleiman, would take over. This was confirmed by a second source.

State television reported that country's supreme military council had expressed its "support of the legitimate demands" of the protesters after an all-day meeting. The latest developments came on the heels of repeated warnings by members of the regime of a military crackdown or coup.

Some pro-democracy protesters reacted cautiously to the reports Mubarak was leaving, saying they would only believe them if and when he announced his departure on television.

President Barack Obama on Thursday said the United States would do all it can to support an orderly transition to democracy in Egypt.

"We are witnessing history unfold," Obama said, adding "It's a moment of transformation that's taking place because the people of Egypt are calling for change."

"We want all Egyptians to know America will continue to do every thing that we can to support an orderly and genuine transition to democracy in Egypt," Obama said.

Make no mistake, Mubarak was going to remain through September elections before the Egyptian opposition called these strikes, and the strikes included Suez Canal workers.  That was the final piece of leverage they needed to convince the Egyptian military to pick a side.  Suddenly, the soldiers have all the power in this equation because Mubarak would need them to restore immediate order to the Suez Canal area, and it looks like they figured that out and made their move to take control.

Given rising worldwide food prices, rising worldwide oil prices on top of that would have turned into a nightmare scenario for a number of countries, including the US.  That still may be true.  24 hours ago, Mubarak was not going anywhere.  Now all indications are he is resigning and the army and Omar Suleiman are stepping in to take control.  The difference today is the strikes possibly shutting down the Suez if they were allowed to continue, and that would have cause massive economic chaos across the globe.

Mubarak had two choices:  resign or unleash a massive crackdown and retake the Suez Canal by military force.  It's clear that Mubarak lost control of the Egyptian Army, and the Egyptian Army wasn't about to start gunning down their own people in the streets, or told Mubarak to go to hell.  Even better, if the Army simply resisted Mubarak, they end up looking like heroes to the people, and they don't have to fire a shot.  Win-win for them.  Once the opposition spread to the Suez Canal, Mubarak's resignation became a question of how soon.

Without the Army, Mubarak was checkmated.  Well played, Egyptian opposition.  Very well played.  So the question remains, who's really in charge, Suleiman, the Army, someone else?  My money's on a gentlemen's agreement between Suleiman and the Army, and negotiations with the Egyptian opposition to form a new government and a new power-sharing structure.

Israeli, Saudi Arabian, American and European Union diplomatic phone lines are burning up as we speak.  They want this to go as smoothly as possible, because if things go south here, we have another Six-Day War situation on our hands, and then things get truly ugly.

Mubarak's departure means the chess match begins now in earnest.

[UPDATE] Ooops.  Mubarak Rick-rolled the entire planet.  He's not going anywhere.  Crowds in Cairo's Tahir Square are marching on the Presidential Palace in anger.   This is going to be bad, folks.  Very bad.

[UPDATE 2]  VP Suleiman has told protesters to go home.  Umm....they're not.  They are pissed off.  Wildcat strike underway in the Suez Canal.  On a scale of one to ten, this is pretty close to a nine on the screwed-o-meter.

It's looking like the Army and Suleiman indeed cut a deal...and that deal included Mubarak staying.

[UPDATE 3]  Egyptian opposition leader Mohamad ElBaradei, on Twitter this evening:

Nothing good will come of the Army "saving the country now".    The chess match has been canceled.  Welcome to the gun show.