Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Shutdown Countdown, Part 7

TPM's Brian Beutler is normally completely on the ball when it comes to the Capitol Hill beat, but he's wrong about this.


House Majority Leader Eric Cantor says upcoming spending legislation will forbid the White House from using any federal dollars to pay to implement the health care law.

"I expect to see one way or the other, the product coming out of the House to speak to that and to preclude any funding to be used for [ObamaCare]," Cantor told reporters at his weekly press availability Tuesday.

Notice he refers to the "product coming out of the House." Implicit in this is an acknowledgment that the Democratic-controlled Senate and the White House will fight them bitterly, and somebody will have to tap out. Indeed, it almost suggests that Cantor knows the House will be out-muscled. So it's not exactly a line in the sand -- it's more like a high opening bid, but more evidence that this will be a chronic fight between the parties.

Exactly what makes one think that the GOP will have any choice from the Tea Party folks to not shut down the government?  Do you really think Eric Cantor and John Boehner will be able to say "Well, we tried to defund and repeal Obamacare but we couldn't."  As much as I would love to see that happen (it would guarantee the civil war in the GOP would explode) it would also lead to economic chaos overnight.

Beutler is counting on the marginally sane wing of the party to take control of the defunding/debt ceiling fight.  Certainly the corporate section of the party will be out in force warning (rightfully) of economic disaster.

But I don't think that section of the party is in charge anymore.  Two months ago, sure.  Now?  Now not so much.

House Republicans Tuesday night got a harsh introduction to the majority, as more than two dozen rank-and-file GOP lawmakers voted against reauthorizing the Patriot Act.

And just hours before the vote on the Bush-era homeland security measure, GOP leaders yanked a trade bill from consideration as the Ways and Means Committee is “working through issues.”

There was no sign that the leadership saw the setbacks coming. The Patriot Act was moved to the floor under suspension of the rules — a provision that requires two-thirds majority (290 votes) to pass and is often used for noncontroversial legislation. After holding the vote open well past the 15-minute window, it failed 277 to 148 with five Republicans and four Democrats not voting.

Republican leaders will bring the bill back to the floor under a rule, where it will almost certainly secure the 218-vote threshold.

Yes, the Patriot Act will pass, but this was a message pitch to the House GOP leadership. The Tea Party will get 100% of what they want in the House or they will hold the business of the country hostage until they do. The discipline and unanimity of the GOP over the last two years is gone, folks.

Like I said, two months ago I would have agreed 100% with Beutler. Today? I don't honestly know what kind of damage the Tea Party will do to our country given they chance, and shutting down the government and defaulting on the country's debt payments unless they get everything they want is their best chance to not only get everything they want from the Democrats, but everything they want from Orange Julius.

It's on, folks. And we're all caught in the middle.

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