Pentagon officials reported Sunday that helicopters flying 60 miles from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant picked up small amounts of radioactive particulates — still being analyzed, but presumed to include cesium-137 and iodine-121 — suggesting widening environmental contamination.
The detection of the highly radioactive elements heralds the beginning of an ecological and human tragedy. The two radioactive isotopes can mean only one thing: One or more of the reactor cores is badly damaged and at least partially melted down.
Japanese reactor operators now have little choice but to periodically release radioactive steam until the radioactive elements in the fuel of the stricken reactors stop generating intense heat, a process that can continue for a year or more even after fission has stopped.
This isn't a worst-case scenario...yet. But it's pretty clear that the line from Japanese officials that the explosions at the complex are just "cooling system malfunctions" are clear lies. The reality is that meltdowns are happening now, and it may take a very long time to deal with the broken containment vessel or vessels. Radioactivity has been released and has contaminated Japan's countryside and ocean.
On Sunday, the International Atomic Energy Agency said the prevailing winds at Daiichi are blowing to the northeast, out to sea, and should continue to do so for the next three days.
Such emissions would not endanger the United States, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission announced Sunday. Given the thousands of miles between the countries, the danger could simply dissipate over the Pacific.
It's impossible to know how a plume of radioactivity traveling over the ocean might affect sea life, said Edwin Lyman, a senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, which strongly opposes nuclear power. Lyman said that simulations he has run on possible nuclear disasters in the U.S. estimate "tens of thousands of cancer deaths" from a total meltdown.
A 2005 census counted 103 million people on Honshu, including the population of Tokyo, which lies 150 miles to the southwest of Fukushima Daiichi.
Lyman's simulations, which rely on NRC computer code, show unfavorable winds could spread radioactivity far beyond the 12.5-mile evacuation zone, much like Chernobyl in 1986.
As I have been saying for over 24 hours now, containment has failed. The question now is how bad the eventual damage will be. Japanese citizens who live near the plant may not be able to return to their homes for a very long time. If there is a complete failure at one or all three damaged reactors, then the damage could be catastrophic. As it is, we're looking at partial meltdown failures at two of the three reactors.
It's not worst-case scenario yet, but it is getting progressively worse.
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