The U.S. Fed chief, who testifies on the Fed's twice-yearly report on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee, will probably nod to improvements in the economy while indicating there is still room for monetary policy to help.
One wildcard is the recent surge in oil prices. Bernanke is likely to see that as more of a headwind to growth than the spark for broad-based inflation as long as consumers and businesses do not become gripped by inflationary psychology.
"We expect continued cautious optimism about the durability of the recovery and the need for ongoing monetary policy accommodation," said Michael Gapen, economist at Barclays Capital.
Some of the Fed's more hawkish officials have said they would consider halting bond purchases ahead of the program's June deadline if a recent growth spurt persists. Bernanke has indicated he would prefer to see the plan through.
The Fed chairman, who will offer a repeat performance on Wednesday before a committee in the House of Representatives, is likely to be peppered with questions about the record U.S. budget gap.
To avoid becoming enmeshed in Washington's heated deficit debate, Bernanke will have to do the usual dodging and weaving. He has repeatedly called for long-term budgetary restraint, with a dose of caution about deep short-run spending cuts.
His testimony comes just days ahead of a possible government shutdown over ongoing budget battles, though inklings of a compromise have emerged from Capitol Hill.
Both Democrats and Republicans will be trying to get Helicopter Ben to agree with their view, but don't expect anything different right now out of the Fed. It's still QE2 and more on deck, and the music will keep playing until somebody takes the baton out of conductor Bernanke's hands and smashes him in the head with it.
Having said that, don't expect Republicans to vilify Bernanke either...unless a Paul is around.
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