Senate leaders seem confident they have at least the 60 necessary votes to carry the deal. If they're right, then the final bill would move swiftly to the President's desk for his signature. Once the ink is on the page, the the debt ceiling can be raised ahead of the nearing deadline, and the ticking timebomb of default will be defused.
It will be the end of a dangerous game of chicken that shook markets across the world as creditors faced up to the possibility that for the first time in its history America might fail to pay its credit obligations.
The chances of that happening dropped dramatically shortly after 7pm Monday, when the House passed the debt legislation by a vote 269-161. It was a controversial deal that many voted for unhappily, recognizing it was perhaps their last chance to halt a national leap into the unknown. Though the bulk of Republicans ultimately voted in favor by a tally of 174-66, the Democrats fractured right down the middle: 95-95. Intriguingly, the Republicans' so-called "Tea Party Caucus," which was reportedly described by Vice President Joe Biden as having acted like "terrorists," also split fairly evenly: 32-38.
The 60 vote threshold in the Senate is to make 40-45 Dem senators vote for it, presumably, while the GOP will only have to put up 15-20. Keep a close eye on the senators up for re-election next year and how they vote. Republicans will want to hang this vote on as many Dems as they can, particularly Claire McCaskill (MO), Sherrod Brown (OH) , Bob Casey (PA), Jon Tester (MT), Amy Klobuchar (MN), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Ben Nelson (NE) and Bill Nelson (FL).
Keep an eye on what Republicans Dick Lugar of Indiana, Scott Brown of Massachusetts, and Olympia Snowe of Maine vote as well. The cries of "primary them!" from the Tea Party were loud enough before this vote.
Meanwhile, the price tag on extra interest payments demanded by the bond markets because of this mess is becoming clear.
To be precise, the extra cost is $1,721,250,000 more in interest payments than the government would have needed to pay investors just two weeks ago, when they were willing to accept far lower rates before the debt ceiling became a crisis.
"That's real money," said IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh. "Taxpayers need to wake up to the fact that these kind of shenanigans in the end cost."
Another $1.7 billion for the fire, and that was just two weeks worth of silliness. Imagine what the damage will be if somehow this deal gets scuttled at the last minute with the deadline looming tonight. We'll see what happens.
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