Orange Julius Gives Away The Game

House Speaker John Boehner expects the GOP to not only maintain control of the House in 2012, but to keep a majority in that chamber for another decade.  How does he expect to do it?  The power of playing the incumbency game during redistricting.

“I think it will be nearly impossible” for Democrats to win back the House in November, Boehner said. “I think our freshman members are doing a good job preparing themselves for the upcoming election. I would also note that redistricting across the country has helped those freshman members and others in tough seats who will now have better seats. So I think we’re in pretty strong shape for the year ahead.”

He brings up a good point.  Redistricting is the key to controlling the House, and the GOP had an enormous advantage in controlling state redistricting processes in 2010.  But should he be bragging about it?  Steve Benen rightfully thinks Congress's single-digit approval rating is going to be far more indicative.

For the record, Boehner’s confidence may well be misplaced. If Democrats pick up 25 seats in November, Boehner will have to hand his Speaker’s gavel back to Nancy Pelosi. Given that Congress’ approval rating has reached depths unseen since the dawn of modern polling, it’s not unreasonable to think we’ll see some electoral volatility later this year.

For that matter, several recent polls show Democrats doing quite well on the congressional generic ballot, including a National Journal poll released yesterday that showed Dems with an 11-point lead on which party Americans want to see in control of the House.

And while we’re at it, both the former chairman of the Republican National Committee and the former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee believe a Dem majority is in reach this year.

I think it's more than just "in reach", especially if President Obama is able to inspire voters like he did in 2008.  His coattails were long then.  I think they'll be as long or better now.