The clearest loss for the president is among white men. In 2008, Obama lost white men by 16 points, according to the exit poll. This year, Obama trails Romney double that margin — 33 points — larger than any deficit for a Democratic candidate since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide win over Walter Mondale.
After splitting their votes 47 percent for Obama and 49 percent for McCain in 2008, whites who identify as political independents now favor Romney over Obama, 59 to 38 percent. Nearly half of all of those who supported Obama in 2008 but Romney in 2012 are white independents. (Overall, whites make up more than 90 percent of “switchers.”)
A key element of Romney’s advantage among all whites is that by 55 to 39 percent, more white voters say he, not Obama understands the economic problems people in this country are having. Among whites without college degrees, Romney is up 58 to 35 percent on this score, expanding what was a narrow gap just a few weeks ago. This advantage comes even as 44 percent of white voters say Romney, as president, would do more to favor the wealthy; 38 percent say he would do more to for the middle class.
Do you see now why the Romney campaign has been blaring the race air horns for the last five months, portraying the President as a con artist and a thug who cares more about minorities and women than white men?
Romney's been able to come in behind the President and sell himself as the candidate of middle-class white male America. And guess what? Still enough middle-class white male voters to give Romney the win. He's just credible enough to be a viable alternative to the President, and that's all these switcher voters need.
Having said that, the electoral college math still favors the President.
The way the term “momentum” is applied in practice by the news media, however, it usually refers only to the first part of the clause — meaning simply that a candidate has been gaining ground in the polls, whether or not he might continue to do so. (I’ve used this phrasing plenty of times myself, so I have no real basis to complain about it.)
But there are other times when the notion of momentum is behind the curve — as it probably now is if applied to Mitt Romney’s polling.
Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so.
If Romney is winning states like Alabama and Kentucky by 25 points instead of 15, it's not going to make a damn bit of difference in the electoral math unless there's gain in states like Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. And right now, the President is continuing to hold on to those states by 3-5 points.
It's going to be a close race. But electorally, I still see the President winning.
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