More Immigration Disintegration

Yesterday I pointed out that as I've been saying for months now, the House will not let the Senate immigration bill pass in any form.  Indeed, Orange Julius promised that any bill that can't get a majority of Republicans to vote for it won't even come up for a vote, and House Republicans are warning that if Boehner breaks that rule and allows the Senate bill to even get an up or down vote, he's political toast.

But Greg Sargent disagrees and believes Boehner is bluffing.

There are two apparent endgames here. Either the House ends up not passing anything. In that case Boehner will have to decide whether to allow the House to vote on the Senate bill — including a path to citizenship. He claims he won’t allow it if a majority of Republicans opposes it. But the pressure on him to allow a vote will be very intense, from powerful GOP stakeholders such as the business community and wide swaths of the consulting/strategist establishment.

Or, alternatively, the House passes something and we go to conference. What happens if whatever emerges from conference contains a path to citizenship, and a majority of House Republicans don’t support it? Asked today by reporters what would happen then, Boehner’s response contained a key tell:

Asked he would require majority Republican support on a bill that came out of  a formal negotiation with the senate, Boehner said “we’ll see when we get  there.”

In other words, Boehner would not rule out a vote that violates the supposed “Hastert Rule.”

I admit, Boehner's in a tough bind.  But Sargent forgets that the nutjob wing of the party always exacts a price.  Right now that price is the end of any citizenship path for undocumented immigrants, and when you have major conservative outfits promising to primary any House Republican who votes for the Senate bill, you're going to see that brick wall come up real fast, just like 7 years ago.

Immigration reform will not pass the House.  This is all but a guarantee.