Your Primary Consideration, Con't

The "first in the nation" primary war for 2024 has now been declared in earnest as Nevada enters the fray to take on Iowa and New Hampshire.

Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak on Friday signed a law that would make Nevada the first state to vote in the 2024 presidential primary contests, bumping Iowa and New Hampshire from their leadoff spots.

Signing the law is a gamble.

It’s likely to set off maneuvering by other states, especially Iowa and New Hampshire, to move up their contests. The national political parties would need to agree to changes in the calendar, or state parties could risk losing their delegates at presidential nominating conventions.

The Democratic National Committee has not yet signaled whether it would support the calendar shakeup and isn’t expected to start writing rules for its nominating process until next year. Republicans in four early presidential nominating states this week all jointly opposed the move, saying they’re committed to preserving the historic schedule.

Democrats in Nevada, including former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, launched the push this year to boost their state after the 2020 primary contest left members of the party questioning the process. They noted Iowa’s problem-plagued caucuses and the fact that the two traditional early states are overwhelmingly white, unlike Nevada.

Before he went on to win his party’s nomination, President Joe Biden performed poorly in Iowa’s caucuses and New Hampshire’s primary. In Nevada, with a much more racially diverse population that mirrors the U.S. as a whole, he finished second.

That gave Biden momentum heading into South Carolina’s primary, which then catapulted him to a string of Super Tuesday victories.

The new law changes Nevada’s contest from a party-run, in-person caucus meeting to a government-run primary election. Democrats nationally started shifting away from caucuses to primaries before 2020, citing the difficulty of attending an in-person meeting and the fiddly math involved to determine who wins the most delegates.

The law will require the presidential primary to be held on the first Tuesday in February in a presidential election year.

 

So now begins the behind-the-scenes maneuvering, where both the Dems and the GOP come to an agreement with the other early states: NH, IA, SC, and increasingly, Texas, Florida, and California, who all want to decide primary winners well before Valentine's Day. 

Of course, if the horse race for the conventions is decided six months before the actual convention, that doesn't leave much of a race to cover for the media. An agreement on a national primary day for all 50 states and all territories and ex-pats would be the actual solution people are looking for, but of course that will never happen.

Well, at least until the fighting gets so bad it does. Or, you know, we lose our democracy to fascism. Hey, at least we're finally getting rid of caucuses. That's actually progress.