We're not going to get vaccination numbers above 70% in America, and it's time to accept that the majority of the unvaccinated at this point are staying unvaccinated for political reasons.
Most Americans who still aren't vaccinated say nothing — not their own doctor administering it, a favorite celebrity's endorsement or even paid time off — is likely to make them get the shot, according to the latest installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.
Why it matters: The findings are more sobering evidence of just how tough it may be to reach herd immunity in the U.S. But they also offer a roadmap for trying — the public health equivalent of, "So you're telling me there's a chance."
What they're saying: "There's a part of that population that are nudge-able and another part that are unbudge-able," said Cliff Young, president of Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs.
"From a public health standpoint they've got to figure out how you nudge the nudge-able."
Details: 30% of U.S. adults in our national survey said they haven't yet gotten the COVID-19 vaccine — half of them a hard no, saying they're "not at all likely" to take it. We asked the unvaccinated about how likely they'd be to take it in a number of scenarios:
The best prospect was a scenario in which they could get the vaccine at their regular doctor's office. But even then, 55% said they'd remain not at all likely and only 7% said they'd be "very likely" to do it. That leaves a combined 35% who are either somewhat likely or not very likely but haven't ruled it out.
The Biden administration's Olivia Rodrigo play won't reach a lot of the holdouts, according to these results: 70% said the endorsement of a celebrity or public figure they like is "not at all likely" to get them to take a shot, and just 4% said they'd be "very likely" to do it. But another combined 24% could be somewhat in play.
What if your boss gave you paid time off to get the shot? 63% said they'd still be not at all likely to do it, while 5% said they'd be very likely. Another 30% combined are potentially but not eagerly gettable.
Similar majorities said they’d be unmoved by community volunteers coming to the door to discuss the vaccine, the option to get a shot at work or a mobile clinic, or being lobbied by friends or family members.
The big picture: Overall, Americans' concerns are rising for activities like seeing family and friends outside the home, going to the grocery store or sports events or getting on a plane.
Those concerns had subsided as vaccines became widely available. But the numbers are creeping back up after recent reports of rising infection rates and the dangers of the Delta variant.
But this trend is being driven by the vaccinated. The unvaccinated are no more concerned than they were before, which wasn't much.
As the body count continues to rise in the weeks and months ahead, the entire point will be to blame Biden's "failure" to convince Americans to get the vaccine. The goal is to see the casualty list post-January 20 exceed that of the final year of the Trump regime, and that's when Biden and the Democrats become "worse than Trump was" at containment of the virus.
You can bet your bottom dollar that Republicans will run on that in 2022 and 2024.
And yes, I'm absolutely serious about this. They want to own the libs by getting a deadly disease, just as long as another half-million or so die (and it isn't them personally because American exceptionalism, if I get sick, my insurance will cover it because I'm a good person) and as long as they can blame Biden for it. See, Trump isn't the worst anymore! Now you have to admit he was better than Biden, stupid libtard! Checkmate!
Yeah I know, that's cynical even for me, even in the era of the Death Cult GOP. But that's how far gone they are, folks.
They'll take as many of us with them as they can. If they can't be in charge of the country, they'll make it hell until we give them the keys to the burning car.
So what will move these numbers? Washington Post columnist Kate Cohen has an idea.
I propose a running tally in bold type: covid deaths among unvaccinated vs. vaccinated citizens. Two numbers, side by side. Every newspaper’s front page, every state and federal website, the crawl at the bottom of every cable television news broadcast.
Google can design something cute for its search bar. Facebook owes it to us.
Every day, all day. Two numbers.
We couldn’t do this until now. When I tried to find out how many covid deaths could have been prevented if people just wore masks, the best I could come up with was the public health literature equivalent of “lots.” A study published last October in Nature Medicine hazarded that with masking nearly 130,000 lives could be saved by the spring, but researchers cautioned the model was more a “sophisticated thought experiment” than a prediction, a rough estimate.
But now that we have the vaccine and almost everyone eligible for it can get it, we don’t have to estimate. We can count. And the numbers show the overwhelming odds that a person who dies of covid has not been vaccinated.
As for the minuscule chance that I, as a vaccinated person, could die of covid? That’s because the unvaccinated are choosing to keep the virus alive.
So, let’s make it simple. Let’s ask our best analysts to put out a single set of numbers every day.
To which I reply, simply, "If logical appeals to reason worked on death cultists, we wouldn't be in this situation in the first place."
At some point, you have to accept that you can only save those who want to be saved, and protect yourself against the rest. We're at that point now.
It's time to accept that, and move into triage mode.
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