Sour Virginia, Con't

Considering how badly state polling did in 2020 in underestimating statewide races in general, I have a very bad feeling about Tuesday's gubernatorial race in Virginia.

Virginia’s race for governor is a toss-up as Tuesday’s election draws near, with 49 percent of likely voters favoring Democrat Terry McAuliffe and 48 percent favoring Republican Glenn Youngkin, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll.

The result is little changed from last month, when a Post-Schar School poll measured the race at 50 percent McAuliffe-47 percent Youngkin — although the Democrat’s six percentage-point edge among all registered voters in September has narrowed to three points in the new poll, at 47 percent for McAuliffe to 44 percent for Youngkin.

Youngkin is fueled by an 18-point advantage among independent likely voters, up from an eight-point advantage last month — a significant swing in a group that could determine the election’s outcome. While Virginia does not register voters by party, 33 percent of voters in the poll identified themselves as independents. That compares with 34 percent who said they consider themselves Democrats and 27 percent who said they are Republicans.

The Post-Schar School poll, which was conducted Oct. 20-26, finds a larger share of voters saying education is the top issue in their vote compared with the September poll, with fewer citing the coronavirus as the biggest factor in their decision. The survey interviewed 918 likely voters reached by professional interviewers on cellphones and landlines, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Third-party candidate Princess Blanding accounts for 1 percent support among likely voters, which in a tight race could make a difference. Blanding, who is campaigning on racial justice as a member of the newly formed Liberation Party, is most likely to draw votes from McAuliffe.

The election also features contests for lieutenant governor and attorney general, as well as all 100 seats in the House of Delegates. Democrats are defending a 55-45 advantage in the House, with Republicans targeting several suburban swing districts — and a few close rural races — that could tip the balance of power.

Early voting ends Saturday, with polls open Tuesday from 6 a.m. until 7 p.m.

 

If Youngkin is able to mobilize enough cultists on Tuesday, he wins. The polls in general have seen a major shift in his favor in the last two weeks.  Five Thirty Eight has the race tied thanks to a FOX News poll that has Youngkin up by a whopping eight points.

 

 

The problem is the race will be close enough for Youngkin to scream ELECTION FRAUD11!!1 should McAuliffe's early voting lead stand up,  and Trump and the rest of the GOP cultists will pile on. The potential for Tuesday's results to be a powerkeg in search of a spark is ruinously high. We've already seen deadly political violence in Virginia four years ago, hell the trial of Trump's "very fine people" in Charlottesville is going on as we speak.

 

I just have a tremendously bad feeling about next week.