Boris, Bad Enough

With all the truly nasty stuff happening here in America it's important to know that Trump's fall in 2020 is looking like it could be the end of multiple clones of himself in other countries. I noted that Trumpy Australian PM Scott Morrison lost elections last month to Labor leader Anthony Albanese, and now in the UK, Boris Johnson faced a no-confidence vote today that could very well end his career.

It was, the prime minister believed, a return to business as usual. On Monday Boris Johnson and his most senior aides gathered in No 10 for their 8am meeting, tucking into bacon rolls as they discussed how to move on from the Downing Street parties scandal.

Johnson, allies said, felt liberated with Sue Gray’s report on the scandal finally behind him and believed that a £21 billion package to tackle the cost of living would answer the concerns of many backbenchers.

The prime minister’s hopes of a respite, however, were short-lived. Over the next three days a further seven Tory MPs went public with criticism of Johnson, bringing the total number to 48.

The Bishop of Buckingham joined calls for Johnson to resign, saying he “obviously” lied over lockdown parties.

The Rt Rev Dr Alan Wilson told Times Radio: “It’s not the parties actually. It’s the lying. I think that’s the problem... I think it’s very difficult to trust a liar.”

When parliament returns from recess and the Platinum Jubilee celebrations on Monday, Johnson will be stepping into the unknown, with whips privately admitting they have no idea how close the prime minister is to the 54-letter threshold needed to trigger a vote in his leadership.

As Guto Harri, the prime minister’s director of communications put it after attending an open-air production of Julius Caesar last week. “Wonderful change from politics,” he said on Facebook. “Or was it?!” Some cabinet ministers have been alarmed by what they view as complacency in Downing Street. In the wake of the Gray report on Wednesday and Rishi Sunak’s spending package on Thursday last week the Downing Street grid appeared to be almost empty. The main offering after a week in which the prime minister had faced down yet another existential crisis was a consultation on a return of imperial measurements.

Senior figures in the campaign to save Johnson — described as Operation Save Big Dog — were also on holiday for much of last week.

“The vote is going to happen,” a government aide said. “There is an awful sense of inevitability about it all. It’s like a pack of Pringles: once you pop, you can’t stop. The lack of an Operation Save Big Dog has been a problem.” There was particular concern in No 10 after Dame Andrea Leadsom — until this week considered a loyalist — accused the prime minister of “unacceptable failings of leadership”.

Several public interventions later by Johnson’s critics and his praetorian guard finally sprang into action. Priti Patel, the home secretary, Nadine Dorries, the culture secretary, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Brexit opportunities minister, were all despatched to defend the prime minister.

Johnson’s allies are withering — privately and publicly — about attempts to remove the prime minister. “I’m getting quite f***ing angry with colleagues who are frothing at the mouth . . . in the way that the public is not,” one cabinet minister said.

 

In other words, Boris Johnson thought he had survived "Partygate" and that everything was fine last week, if not over the weekend. They were wrong.

The Tory rebels got their 54 needed to trigger a no-confidence vote over the weekend, and he needed at least 180 votes from Tory MPs to survive and got 211. Odds were he was going to get that number, the issue was presumed that if the vote wounded him badly enough that like his predecessor Theresa May, Johnson will have to resign soon anyway.

We'll see.