President Biden's surprise trip to Ukraine's front lines, accompanying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, to announce in person that the US and EU will continue "unwavering support" for the government in Kyiv and the people of Ukraine seems like one of those fateful moments that will eventually be an answer on a history test someday.
Mr. Biden arrived early Monday morning to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky after a 10-hour overnight train ride through Ukraine, and the two stepped out into the streets of Kyiv even as an air-raid siren sounded, a dramatic moment that underscored the investment the United States has made in Ukraine’s independence.
“One year later, Kyiv stands,” Mr. Biden declared at Mr. Zelensky’s side in Mariinsky Palace, the gilded ceremonial home of the Ukrainian president. “And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands.”
“Thank you so much for coming, Mr. President, at a huge moment for Ukraine,” Mr. Zelensky said.
In Kyiv for just five hours, Mr. Biden promised to release another $500 million in military aid in coming days, mentioning artillery ammunition, Javelin missiles and Howitzers, but he did not talk about the advanced arms that Ukraine has sought. Mr. Zelensky told reporters that he and the American president had spoken about “long-range weapons and the weapons that may still be supplied to Ukraine, even though it wasn’t supplied before.”
Mr. Biden joined Mr. Zelensky for a visit to St. Michael’s monastery in downtown Kyiv, where the sun glittered off the golden domes as the air-raid alarm wailed. Trailing two soldiers bearing a wreath, the two leaders walked along the Wall of Remembrance, with portraits of more than 4,500 soldiers who have died since Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 and first fomented a rebellion in eastern Ukraine.
The air-raid alarm had stopped by the time Mr. Biden got back into his motorcade and departed the monastery, and alarms sound almost daily in Kyiv, but the blare of the siren added to the bristling tension of the moment. Ukrainian officials have been warning that Russia plans a large-scale missile bombardment timed to the anniversary of the war on Friday.
All evidence points toward Russia's "major offensive" to break Kyiv will get under way this week as the anniversary of Russia's formal "special military operation" approaches, and just as Biden announced support for Ukraine, China now has a fateful decision of its own to make when it comes to backing Moscow as Beijing's new top diplomat heads to Moscow.
Wang Yi – who was promoted as Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s top foreign policy adviser last month – is due to arrive in Moscow this week as part of his eight-day Europe tour, a trip that brings into focus China’s attempted diplomatic balancing act since Russia tanks rolled into Ukraine a year ago.
The optics of the two trips – taking place just days before the one-year anniversary of the brutal war on Friday – underscores the sharpening of geopolitical fault lines between the world’s two superpowers.
While relations between the US and China continue to plummet – most recently due to the fallout from a suspected Chinese spy balloon that entered US airspace, China and Russia are as close as ever since their leaders declared a “no-limits” friendship a year ago – partly driven by their shared animosity toward the United States.
And as the US and its allies reaffirm their support for Ukraine and stepped up military aid, Beijing’s deepening partnership with Moscow has raised alarms in Western capitals – despite China’s public charm offensive in Europe to present itself as a negotiator of peace.
At the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, Wang addressed a room of European officials as “dear friends” and touted China’s commitment to peace, while apparently attempting to drive a wedge between Europe and the US.
“We do not add fuel to the fire, and we’re against reaping benefits from this crisis,” Wang said in a thinly veiled dig at the US, echoing the propaganda messaging that regularly made China’s nightly prime-time news program – that the US is intentionally prolonging the war because its arms manufacturers are earning fat profits from weapon sales.
“Some forces might not want to see peace talks to materialize. They don’t care about the life and death of Ukrainians, nor the harm on Europe. They might have strategic goals larger than Ukraine itself. This warfare must not continue,” Wang said.
China doesn't want open military conflict, but it does want Taiwan back and has all but said as much. Some sort of joint operation between Putin and President Xi to get both Ukraine and Taiwan back is one of those Really Bad Scenarios™ that isn't out of the realm of possibility, either.
Things get...very complex from there. Would Biden also pledge "unwavering support" for Taipei and commit forces to defend Taiwan, and would it matter as far as keeping China out?
We'll see. Again, it seems like this is one of those moments where the history of the planet revolves around. Putin running out of troops and materiel and being forced to surrender could happen, or China and the rest of the BRICS+ nations could also pledge support. If the Saudis and Emirates jump in on Russia's side, as they have threatened to do on a number of occasions in the last several months, all bets are off.
I'm glad Biden is in charge here instead of Trump, though. today proved that.
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