The real major story for tomorrow isn't in Manhattan, it's in Madison and Milwaukee, as Ben Jacobs of Vox interviews Wisconsin political reporter Jessie Opoien about Tuesday's critical state supreme court election.
One of the most consequential elections of 2023 will happen on April 4 in Wisconsin. The race for an open state Supreme Court seat will determine the partisan balance of the Badger State’s highest court and either maintain the 4-seats-to-3 hold that conservatives have on the court, or the race will flip it to a liberal majority. The result could not only determine whether abortion is legal in Wisconsin after the Supreme Court last year overturned Roe v. Wade, but it could also lead to a redraw of the state’s heavily gerrymandered legislative and congressional maps. New maps in Wisconsin could flip control not just of the statehouse but even of the US House of Representatives, where Republicans currently only have the slimmest majority.
Jessie Opoien is the capitol bureau chief for the Capital Times and has covered Wisconsin politics for over a decade. We spoke about the race and what it means not just in Wisconsin but nationally.
Ben Jacobs
Who is running in this race, and why is it getting so much attention?
Jessie Opoien
So the two candidates are Janet Protasiewicz, who is a Milwaukee County circuit judge, and Daniel Kelly, who is a former state Supreme Court justice. And although the race is ostensibly nonpartisan, it’s extremely influenced by partisan entities. So, again, Janet Protasiewicz is linked with Democrats and the liberal side of things. And Kelly is linked with Republicans and the conservative side of things. It’s getting so much attention because it’s one of the only huge races on a ballot anywhere this year because the ideological ballot balance of the state Supreme Court could flip in favor of liberals for the first time since 2008.
That could open the door to challenges to a number of policies that were passed by Republicans over the last 10 years. And I think, most notably, it would open the door to the court, looking at a challenge to the state’s abortion ban, which was passed in 1849 and had been unenforceable until the Dobbs decision.
Ben Jacobs
How much does redistricting come into play as well?
Jessie Opoien
Yeah, redistricting is the No. 2 issue on voters’ minds. At this point, I think abortion is definitely driving the race. The state has seen a number of challenges to its electoral map. I think it’s pretty widely agreed throughout the country that Wisconsin’s maps are among the most gerrymandered in the country. Janet Protasiewicz has certainly talked about those maps. She has said outright that they’re rigged. That’s something that the Kelly campaign has hit her on. But I think we could definitely expect, if she were to win, we could expect another challenge or a revival of one of the old challenges to make its way back to the court.
Ben Jacobs
Judicial races are nominally supposed to be nonpartisan. Is there any pretense at this point that this is removed from party politics?
Jessie Opoien
Not really; both of the candidates pretty much acknowledge that this is the way it works at this point. It’s kind of one of those things where, as a reporter, you have to note that it’s nonpartisan, and then explain that it’s really nonpartisan in name only. So I think both candidates are pretty well-linked to their respective political parties. We’re seeing both parties get pretty involved. It’s really just a difference between saying liberal and Democrat or conservative or Republican.
Ben Jacobs
So there’s a lot of money being spent in the race. How much is being spent, and who is doing it?
Jessie Opoien
Yeah, it’s huge. We’ve already surpassed the record for the most expensive judicial race in the country. ... We’ve already passed $20 million, and I’ve been hearing as high as $27 million. We are going to keep seeing that go higher and higher in the final days of the race. The Protasiewicz campaign is spending more than Kelly, who is relying a little bit more on outside groups. But we’re just seeing so much money flooding in from groups that have an interest in this race.
There's a very good chance that the 2024 election comes down to Wisconsin. There's a very good chance that this state supreme court election will determine if Joe Biden can win in the state fairly, or if the Republicans in the state legislature can and will declare someone like Trump the winner regardless of the vote, in the most gerrymandered state in the union.
On top of that, there's the state's abortion ban, and how the state will repond to a law that's been on the books since before the US Civil War. Both will be decided by this election.
It's that important.
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