Are The Dems Closing The Enthusiam Gap?

Evidence is increasing that the Democrats are beginning to close the "enthusiasm gap" with motivated Republicans as more Democratic voters are finally beginning to pay attention to the elections in less than five weeks.

Over the past two months Republicans held significant leads in generic ballot polls of likely voters.  Rasmussen Reports had Republicans with a 12 point lead (48%-36%) in their generic ballot poll in the mid-August, and a ten-point lead (48%-38%) in mid-September.  Another CNN poll from one week ago gave Republicans a nine-point lead (54%-45%) among likely voters.  Now those leads seem to be dwindling.  The most recent Rasmussen Reports poll has the Republican lead down to six points (46%-40%).  A poll released today from NBC/Wall Street Journal has the Republican advantage down to just 3 points (46%-43%).  Those numbers are still not good for Democrats, but they certainly look better than the data from two weeks ago.

There are a number of possible reasons behind the shriking enthusiasm gap.  Some believe that voters are just now beginning to pay attention to the midterm elections (since most people busy themselves with other matters of life such as working).  As more poeple begin to pay attention, the theory is that Democrats are gaining voters who previously were tuning out.  Other analysts have suggested that Tea Party candidates and the Republican proposals are scaring Democratic voters to the polls.  For instance, liberals may be disappointed about the loss of the public option, but they certainly do not want to see Republicans repeal the progressive health care reform provisions that were passed.  Finally, the Democratic Party has just recently begun their intensive get-out-the-vote campaigns and activated their organizaitonal machine.  It is possible that these efforts are beginning to bear fruit in the recent polls.

Evidence of this trend is beginning to show up in some individual races, too.  In Minnesota, Democrat Mark Dayton has taken a big lead in the last few weeks precisely because of motivated Democratic voters.

A new Minnesota Public Radio News-Humphrey Institute poll shows Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton with a significant and growing lead over Republican Tom Emmer.


A month ago, the poll showed Dayton and Emmer deadlocked at 34 percent each. But the latest survey shows Dayton with an 11 percentage point lead over Emmer -- 38 to 27 percent.

Independence Party candidate Tom Horner, who had 13 percent a month ago, now has 16 percent according to the new poll.

So what's changed?

"The big story in September is that the Democrats have woken up from their summer slumber," said University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs, who oversaw the poll.

"When you go back to August, you find 57 percent of Democrats who are likely to vote saying that they had only a little or really no interest in voting come November," Jacobs said. "Now we found a substantial 83 percent of Democrats saying they have a great deal or a fair amount of interest in this election."

That 83 percent enthusiasm number for Democrats matches the Republicans', meaning the GOP has lost the edge in election excitement it had enjoyed over Democrats.

If the story on the Republican side has been the rise of the Tea Party, then the story on the Democratic side is the voter who takes the Tea Party threat seriously.   Granted, these are only a couple of examples and while polls are getting better for the Dems in some cases, they are getting worse for them in other individual races.  And the overall numbers still favor the Republicans.

Both sides are trying to get out as many voters as possible.  Whoever wins that battle will get control of Congress in January.

[UPDATE]  Hotline On-Call's Reid Wilson says there's no turnaround, and in fact the Dems are more likely now to lose additional Senate seats in WV, CT, and WI, giving the GOP control of the Senate, too.