As recently as last week, there was quite a bit of talk about Senate Democrats caving on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" repeal. Leaders knew they have to pass the military spending bill (the National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA), and if Republicans were prepared to kill the measure over DADT, Dems looked like they'd blink first.
This week, there's been a shift in the other direction. President Obama has reportedly been working the phones, urging "dozens of Senators from both sides of the aisle" to approve the spending bill just as it is, leaving the repeal language intact.
By late yesterday, the Senate leadership announced it's not caving, setting the stage for a December showdown.
The problem is who on the Republican side will do the right thing when the base will see working with the Democrats as treason that must be ripped out? Reid will offer amendments to both sides in order to get his two votes, but that will eat up two weeks of Senate business, leaving not a whole lot of time to get votes on anything else.
I just don't see how this works out. I fully expect another last minute 180 by the GOP and this measure fails to advance by that same 58-42 vote, and then the real problems begin. I hope I'm wrong. How will the GOP be punished if they scuttle the bill?
More than enough LGBT voters went to the Republican side to reward them for the Log Cabin Republicans' efforts to attack DADT in the courts. If things play out like I forsee it, these same folks will blame the 58 yes votes and not the 42 no ones...and vote increasingly Republican in 2012.
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