Last Call

If a flying car doesn't do it for you at $194,000...



...you can always opt for the Lightcycle at a mere 35 grand.

Ain't technology great?

Another Milepost On The Road To Oblivion

The third Twilight Saga film, "Eclipse", made $30 million.  Today.  On just the midnight showings.

It hurts just thinking about it.

In Which Zandar Answers Your Burning Questions

Steven Spruiell over at The Corner asks (while accusing Jon Chait of a reductio ad absurdum argument on tax cuts, no less:)

The importance of cutting tax rates, in terms of economic stimulus, it not just that it gives people more money to spend. The stimulus comes from the incentive effects of letting people keep more of the money they earn. If people think they are going to need to work harder and save more because the government is going to cut their Social Security, and the government is simultaneously letting them keep a higher percentage of each marginal dollar, eliminating taxes on their investments and reducing taxes that create a drag on their business activities, how could that not be a net plus for economic growth?

Really?  So, if I make X a year and pay Y in taxes, and my taxes are reduced by Z, under Steven's theory here I'm going to put that money away because the government is cutting spending programs.  It doesn't matter how hard I work if I'm a salaried employee or my boss has eliminated overtime to cut costs.  My incentive to put this money away becomes more of a necessity, and I sock it away.  Sure doesn't help with inflation or interest rates.  if anything, like most Americans I'm not saving that extra money, I'm reducing my debt.  That helps a little as far as keeping marginal dollars, but not much.

How does that stimulate the economy?  How does that increase employment or demand or revenues?  I'm not buying anything extra.  Maybe the money market or hedge fund manager in charge of my chunk of the pool of money is having a fatter paycheck, but I'm sure as hell not unless the tax cuts are substantial.  If the tax cuts are more than the spending cuts, then surprise!  The deficit increases.  The important part is the economy isn't growing to offset the deficit increase, either.  Steven like most supply-siders, keeps making this fundamental assumption that tax cuts equal growth, when it doesn't unless you cut taxes to the point of increasing the deficit like Reagan did, and then Bush Jr. did.  In the end, all that does is help the people that pay taxes.  If you pay little to no taxes, it does absolutely nothing for you.

I mean look at where we are right now.  If Spruiell is right, our economy should be gangbusters after the Dubya tax cuts, right?

Not Going To Happen

Jon Cohn talks climate legislation:

I don't think this means the situation is hopeless. I heard plenty of dire predictions about health care reform, right up until the day it passed. As Brad and others have written, some of the possible compromises would represent worthwhile, if far from adequate, progress. But even those compromises won't pass without a bigger push.

That bigger push is not coming.  Democrats can't even get jobs bills passed right now.  The Republicans have their target in health care reform so there's no reason anything else will pass now.  Their base will not let them.  Anything that does pass is a victory for Obama, and that cannot be allowed to happen as far as the Republicans are concerned.  jobs legislation will not pass.  Financial Regulation will not pass.  Climate legislation will not pass.  Nothing will pass.  I have my doubts that Elena Kagan will pass.  Republicans will blame the Dems and hope for gains in November.

That's the plan.

Zandar's Thought Of The Day

S&P 500 just closed well under the technical level of 1040 at 1030 and some change.  From here on out, things are going to get bad.  Really, really bad.  When Friday's job numbers come in at Oh Crap, you're going to see some rich, nougat-filled carnage on the markets.  Going to get worse with the 2Q earnings numbers too.

Enjoy.

Home, Home I'm Deranged Part 4

Time for another round of problem solving, Happy Face Financial Media style.  Today's issue:  the housing depression.  the problem:  people can't afford the cost of homes, specifically with housing prices dropping, people are getting underwater on their mortgages and now owe more than their house is worth.  This means they can't sell the house, and have to either come up with the higher mortgage rate or lose the house.  Since people aren't buying homes, the housing market continues to fall...a classic real estate depression spiral.

The Happy Face Financial Media solution?  Make it even tougher to buy houses, especially for first-time home buyers.

Could it be time to say good-bye to the popular 30-year mortgage?

"The 30-year mortgage is outdated, the standard fixed-rate mortgage is outdated, and it has to be improved," housing expert Robert J. Shiller told CNBC.

Shiller is Yale University professor and author, who is best known for co-creating the S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Indices, which track home prices in the United States.

"People want a more modern vehicle, and that's something we need to think about next," Schiller said.

Wait, what?   Get rid of the 30-year mortgage rate?  Who the hell is that going to help?  The banks, sure.  Home buyers?  How is that going to stabilize demand when the problem is people can't afford houses now?

"If America wants the government out of housing, it has to get used to a number of things," said Raghuram G. Rajan former IMF economist, author of Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy and professor at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business.

"For example, shorter mortgage durations, higher interest rates [and] potentially lower housing prices, because the cost of financing has gone up. Is it ready for that? I don't know."

Shorter mortgages on lower priced housing means the payments are still the problem.  Maybe after the market is stabilized you can consider doing this, but until that happens it's suicide.  This is looking at the color of your replacement wallpaper while your house is still burning down.  Barry Ritholz?  He gets it.

Even after a plunge of more than 30% from the 2007 peak to the 2009 trough, house prices still did not fall to their long-term "fair value" level relative to incomes and rents of the past century.  Over the next year or so, Ritholtz expects prices will resume their fall and drop at least another 10% before bottoming.

What are the factors that will continue to drive prices down?  Mainly, an ongoing imbalance of supply and demand.

Basically, we still have way too many houses for the current level of demand. It's true that houses are more "affordable" than they have been for decades, but many of the folks who might be interested in buying houses have lost their jobs or are working off huge debt loads accumulated in the past.  And that means that they're not queuing up to buy still-over-priced houses again.

I personally think if Obama follows through on austerity, it's going to be a lot more than 10%.

World Cupdate

No games until this weekend but in the meanwhile...Germany's secret weapon against Argentina is the power of PSYCHO OCTOPUS.

Paul, a two-year-old octopus born in England now living in a German aquarium, has a 100-percent winning streak at the World Cup -- and even accurately predicted Serbia would beat Germany in their Group D match-up earlier in the tournament.

The eight-legged octopus, a denizen of Sea Life in the western town of Oberhausen, has turned into a celebrity oracle for getting all four picks right so far -- including last Sunday's elimination round match when Germany beat England.

On Tuesday, Paul once again was given the choice of picking food from two different plastic containers lowered into his tank -- one with an Argentine flag on it and one with a German flag.

The container Paul opens first is seen as his pick. Paul moved cautiously and spent about 45 minutes mulling his decision before eating the food in the box with the German flag -- suggesting a hard-fought win in extra time or even penalties.

Last week Paul ignored the England container and quickly went for the container with the Germany flag -- which was taken as a hint that Germany would win a decisive victory

"It took Paul a really long time to make up his mind today for the Argentina-Germany match," said Sea Life spokeswoman Tanja Munzig. "Even after he opened the Germany container it took him a while to go in and eat the clam."

Munzig said, by contrast, it took Paul only seconds to decide before the England match to go for the Germany container.

"That it took him so long to make up his mind suggests it'll be a very tense match against Argentina that won't be decided until the very end -- maybe not even until penalties," she said.

You cannot hope to defeat the power of Paul...you can only hope to contain him.  Personally, I think Germany and Argentina going to extra time or PKs is actually a pretty safe bet.

The Real Deal Appeal Of Repeal, Part 6

Orange Julius and his sidekick Eric Cantor have now gone all in on total repeal of health care reform.

The top two House Republicans signed onto two petitions to force votes to repeal Democrats' healthcare reform law in its entirety.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) and House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) said they had signed onto discharge petitions set to be offered by members of their conference, one of which would seek to repeal health reform in its entirety.

Boehner and Cantor said they'd back discharge petitions by Reps. Steve King (R-Iowa) and Wally Herger (R-Calif.), a method to force a vote in the House. A majority of the House — 218 members — must sign onto a discharge petition, though, to force a vote, meaning that a vote on repeal in the House would be a steep climb.

"The American people asked Congress and President Obama not to pass the massive healthcare overhaul, and they were ignored," Boehner and Cantor said in a statement. "Three months later, they remain opposed to it, worried about the consequences it is having for job creation, the national debt, and the cost and quality of their healthcare.

"The House should immediately vote on and pass legislation that would implement the will of the American people with respect to the president’s healthcare law," the pair added. 

Which is funny, because the American people have started embracing the health care reform legislation recently, which more or less renders the GOP argument moot.   The will of the American people is that they now like the law, since apparently we're now passing or repealing laws based entirely on poll numbers, according to Republicans.  They favor it 48%-41%.  He's lying when he says the American people remain opposed to it.

I guess it hasn't occurred to OJ and Kid Can't here.  Makes it easy for the Dems to continue to counterattack on this.  That's the GOP solution to health care:  repeal!

Jobapalooza Preiview

The initial ADP numbers ahead of Friday's Labor Dept. report aren't looking good at all.

Private employers added a paltry 13,000 jobs in June, compared to a revised gain of 57,000 in May, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

The May figure was originally reported as a gain of 55,000.

The median of estimates from 30 economists surveyed by Reuters for the ADP Employer Services report, jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, was for a rise of 60,000 private-sector jobs in June.

The ADP figures come ahead of the government's much more comprehensive labor market report on Friday.

That report is expected to show a fall in nonfarm payrolls of 110,000 in June overall, as many temporary workers hired to complete the government's decennial census were laid off.

13K new jobs?  That's a disaster.  I really hate to say this, but I'm also convinced that we want a much worse job number to kick some Senators in the ass to get them to go with a real jobs bill.

Unfortunately,even if it was a steep loss, the Republicans still wouldn't care:  they gain nothing by helping the economy now and profit the most in November by filibustering everything and blaming the Dems.

Playing The Paranoia Angle, Part 5

Sharron Angle just needs to stop talking to the press, period.  Every time she opens her mouth, she just makes things worse.  Nevada reporter Jon Ralston asked Angle about her statement on the Second Amendment and "taking Harry Reid out."

"A lot of people think that's pretty outrageous rhetoric," Ralston said, referring to the language about "take Harry Reid out," and asked Angle whether she thought President Obama was a tyrant comparable to King George III.

"Well, I was speaking broadly, as you saw, about the Constitution, and that was the context of that rhetoric," Angle responded. "I admit that was a little strong to say 'take him out,' but you know what I meant. I meant take him out of office, and taking him out of office is a little different. I changed my rhetoric, to 'defeat Harry Reid.'"

Ralston continued to ask Angle whether she had gone too far.

"You know what, Jon," Angle responded, "I think it's interesting that we're nitpicking on all the little topics that Harry is putting out there."

"Harry Reid didn't put this out there," an excited Ralston said. "You put it out there."

Angle then appeared to switch topics, responding that she thought Reid should instead come and debate her on the main issues. "Why did we put all that money into a stimulus," Angle said, among other economic issues.

Yes, why should anyone talk about the things Sharron Angle doesn't want to talk about?  It's not like politicians should be asked about their past political statements when running for the US Senate.  Gosh, why isn't Ralston asking softball questions?

Meanie.

The Grand Experiment

NY Times economics reporter David Leonhardt takes a look at Austerity Hysteria.  He hedges his bets like most economists, but he does admit that austerity doesn't automatically mean an end to the recession and that there is serious risk involved.

The world’s rich countries are now conducting a dangerous experiment. They are repeating an economic policy out of the 1930s — starting to cut spending and raise taxes before a recovery is assured — and hoping today’s situation is different enough to assure a different outcome.

In effect, policy makers are betting that the private sector can make up for the withdrawal of stimulus over the next couple of years. If they’re right, they will have made a head start on closing their enormous budget deficits. If they’re wrong, they may set off a vicious new cycle, in which public spending cuts weaken the world economy and beget new private spending cuts.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, pessimism seemed the better bet. Stocks fell around the world, with more steep drops in Asia Wednesday morning over worries about economic growth.

Longer term, though, it’s still impossible to know which prediction will turn out to be right. You can find good evidence to support either one.

The private sector in many rich countries has continued to grow at a fairly good clip in recent months. In the United States, wages, total hours worked, industrial production and corporate profits have all risen significantly. And unlike in the 1930s, developing countries are now big enough that their growth can lift other countries’ economies.

On the other hand, the most recent economic numbers have offered some reason for worry, and the coming fiscal tightening in this country won’t be much smaller than the 1930s version. From 1936 to 1938, when the Roosevelt administration believed that the Great Depression was largely over, tax increases and spending declines combined to equal 5 percent of gross domestic product.

Back then, however, European governments were raising their spending in the run-up to World War II. This time, almost the entire world will be withdrawing its stimulus at once. From 2009 to 2011, the tightening in the United States will equal 4.6 percent of G.D.P., according to the International Monetary Fund. In Britain, even before taking into account the recently announced budget cuts, it was set to equal 2.5 percent. Worldwide, it will equal a little more than 2 percent of total output.

Today, no wealthy country is an obvious candidate to be the world’s growth engine, and the simultaneous moves have the potential to unnerve consumers, businesses and investors, says Adam Posen, an American expert on financial crises now working for the Bank of England. “The world may be making a mistake, and it may turn out to make things worse rather than better,” Mr. Posen said. 

Certainly not as against this as the Kroog and others, but at least it's an obvious admission that this too may fail...because the evidence is there that when we tried this the last time, it threw us right back into a Depression.   If Ireland is any indication, this much austerity globally with our consumer-based economy is going to turn into a long-term disaster.

The Big Casino

McClatchy catches Goldman Sachs admitting that they actively bet against insurance giant AIG in order to make tons of money at the expense of you and me. They played the Big Casino, they bet against the country and watched the economy go into the crapper and made a mint.  And you and I paid for it!

Reversing its oft-repeated position that it was acting only on behalf of its clients in its exotic dealings with the American International Group, Goldman Sachs now says that it also used its own money to make secret wagers against the U.S. housing market.

A senior Goldman executive disclosed the "bilateral" wagers on subprime mortgages in an interview with McClatchy, marking the first time that the Wall Street titan has conceded that its dealings with troubled insurer AIG went far beyond acting as an "intermediary" responding to its clients' demands.

The official, who Goldman made available to McClatchy on the condition he remain anonymous, declined to reveal how much money Goldman reaped from its trades with AIG.

However, the wagers were part of a package of deals that had a face value of $3 billion, and in a recent settlement, AIG agreed to pay Goldman between $1.5 billion and $2 billion. AIG's losses on those deals, for which Goldman is thought to have paid less than $10 million, were ultimately borne by taxpayers as part of the government's bailout of the insurer.

Nice.  Meanwhile, Sen. Scott Brown and the Senate Republicans won't let us tax the big banks to get some of that money back because it's just not fair to companies like Goldman Sachs.  Gotta love how that works, huh.

We're being played for fools and idiots. Just how stupid do the Republicans think we are?

StupidiNews!

• Hurricane Alex is heading for landfall along the Texas-Mexico border later today as a category 1 storm.
• Alex has halted oil containment and clean-up efforts as VP Joe Biden arrives in the Gulf Coast area to observe.
• The highway from Kandahar to Kabul in Afghanistan has become the "Most Dangerous Road on Earth".
• A third of all home sales in the US now involve some level of "mortgage distress" on the property.
• Indoor cell tower technology -- "femtocells" -- are now cheap enough for carriers to take coverage to the next level.

Last Call

Tyler Durden has found evidence of the coming Ragnarok.

...and now, S&P has just announced it has put Moody's on creditwatch negative, the reason: "We believe there may be added risk to U.S.-based credit rating agency Moody's business profile following recent U.S. legislation that may lower margins and increase litigation related costs for credit rating agencies." Just so you understand what is going on here - S&P: a credit rating agency, is downgrading Moody's, a credit rating agency, on concerns finreg will impair credit rating agencies. Well, if "suiciding" your chief competitor is the best way to approach this situation, whatever works... Next week, Moody's downgrades S&P, followed by another downgrade of Moody's by S&P, until both companies bankrupt each other with a mutual D rating. John Nash would be so proud.

Credit ratings agencies going after credit ratings agencies.  Not many people know this, but that's exactly what happened right before Atlantis sank.

Up To No Thurgood

Steve M. is on to something re: the GOP attack on Thurgood Marshall during the Elena Kagan hearings, even though GOP Senators can't name a single case that apparently typifies how Thurgood Marshall supposedly destroyed America.

But don't you see? The strategists who mapped this line of attack out didn't intend for the senators to be able to offer detailed backup for their argument. If this is going according to the usual script, the job of arguing the anti-Marshall line in detail will be handed off to a far-right Republican of non-European descent. The African American or Hispanic or Asian or Native American (maybe a woman -- a two-fer!) will write an op-ed for, say, The Wall Street Journal enumerating the supposed flaws in Marshall's jurisprudence. The op-ed will praise Marshall's role as a civil rights crusader; it will take him to task for other alleged sins. And the non-pink-skinned author of the piece will then appear repeatedly on Fox News and talk radio, restating the op-ed's bullet points.

Who's going to get the gig? Maybe Janice Rogers Brown or Miguel Estrada. Both are wingnut heroes, George W. Bush judicial appointees of color who were blocked by Senate Democrats. (Brown, who once compared liberalism to slavery in a speech, might have an approach that's a wee bit too harsh, however.) Or maybe it'll be an unknown. But righties are surely going to try to continue tarnishing Marshall, while giving themselves cover so they can say "Who, us?" when the racial dog whistle is identified as what it is.

About an 80-85% chance of that happening this week.  I'll keep an eye out.

Zandar's Thought Of The Day

Question for the assembled:

If you are Daily Kos's hired polling firm, Research 2000, and detailed analysis of your polling methodology by Nate Silver brings up major discrepancies, prompting Kos to then open an independent investigation of those same methodologies and then fire Research 2000 and file a lawsuit against them as a result of the analysis...

Your next step should be:

A)  Present a completely transparent process of methodology, plus the raw data you gathered, to show how you arrived at your polling conclusions.

B)  Apologize and show how your data in the past have been accurate and that you are relied on by other political news outlets.

C)  Pick a fight with Nate Silver through your lawyers that a middle school debate club could demolish.

Guess which one R2K went with?

World Cupdate

The final day of Round of 16 action took us to settle up groups F and G, with Paraguay taking on surprise Japan, and Spain and Portugal trading blows yet again.  First, Paraguay's 4-3-3 squad led by Benitez, Barrios and Santa Cruz took on Japan's 4-5-1 attack headed by Keisuke Honda.  Japan has miraculously avoided injuries and bookings and have ran the table so far with their starting eleven, while La Albirroja only have one booking suspension to deal with in Carcares out, Bonet was his replacement.  Early on the game broke out into near fistfights as both teams expressed an ardent desire for physical play and the referee didn't seem eager to blow the whistle at all.  That devolved into midfield detente' as both sides had difficulty issues penetrating the back line with 6 up, 4 back.  Both teams led sorties to probe the other's defense and were rewarded with a couple of break chances, but the defending and goalkeeping were what got both these teams into this round, and it held up during the first half.  Few shots, a couple corners and no bookings...a boring but safe match heading into the break.  In the second half, both teams saw scoring opportunities and went towards more physical play, the Samurai Blue finally picking up a few bookings, and Paraguay's defense upped their game with a couple of solid counter-strikes.  Both teams subbed in strikers for backs in order to generate offense and fought valiantly, but nothing could find the strings.  We went to overtime for only the second time in this Cup.  Paraguay exploded off the blocks to try to do Japan in with a couple of excellent chances, but keeper Kawashima blocked everything thrown at him.  Likewise, Honda's free kick was blocked out by Villar and in the second OT period, both sides went for broke but couldn't come up with anything left in the reserves to try to break the keepers.  We went to penalty shots to decide it, and Japan's Komano missed the third shot off the bar while Paraguay nailed all 5, giving them the win in what has to be a heartbreaker for the Samurai Blue.  Paraguay was the better team for most of that match however, and Japan has nothing to be ashamed of after their run.

But that brought us to Spain and Portugal in the battle for the Iberian Peninsula, and these ancient foes squared off yet again, La Furia Roja rolling out a 4-4-2 attack fronted by the dangerous Fernando Torres and David Villa, while Portugal's Shield Select went on the offensive with a 4-3-3 formation that featured strikers Cristiano Ronaldo, Almeida, and Simao.  Portugal's plan was to go on the assault and ding Spain early and they did get a few chances to do just that, meanwhile Spain was winning the set piece battle only to take ill-advised shots.  Both teams were playing trebuchet ball rather than driving in, and nothing was going anywhere near box.  While the early minutes belonged to Spain, Portugal came on very strong in the end of the first half with some brutal attacking and narrowly missed chances...but missed all the same.  In the second half Portugal went on the attack again and made a number of brilliant near misses that looked to drain  the fury out of La Furia Roja.  Meanwhile Spain looked ragged and blown out, so when both teams subbed in at 58' for fresh strikers, Danny's arrival for Spain (replacing the totally ineffective Almeida) was just the spark they needed to get back on offense.  It was David Villa off the Xavi pass at 63' that found the net as La Furia Roja came storming back.  Portugal managed to stanch the bleeding but the frustration boiled over as La Ablirroja's Ricardo Costa picked up a red card for a thrown elbow at the end of regulation and in the 3 minutes of stoppage time there was nothing doing.  Spain wins 1-0 and will face Paraguay as now only eight teams remain, and they will clash this weekend.

Don't Have The Juice

As widely expected, with the loss of Sen. Byrd and Sen. Feingold falling directly into Useful Idiot territory, the Dems now have a mountain to climb on financial reform and the bill itself is in mortal peril as "moderate" Republicans like Se. Scott Brown turn on the legislation.  The issue now is $19 billion in additional taxes on banks, and the Republicans won't stand for that.

Senate and House conferees on Wall Street reform are expected to reconvene Tuesday because of Republican objections to $19 billion in fees that would be placed on big financial firms.

The meeting would follow Sen. Scott Brown's (R-Mass.) letter to the chairmen of the conference committee on Tuesday, in which he said he would oppose the Wall Street overhaul bill as it stands.

In a letter to Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), Brown expressed "strong opposition" to the fees that were added in the conference process between House and Senate lawmakers last week.

"If the final version of the bill contains these higher taxes, I will not support it," he said.

Conferees had announced a deal early Friday morning, and had hoped to move to votes in the House and Senate this week.

No new conference meeting has been announced, but lobbyists and reporters are converging on the Rayburn House Office Building in anticipation of one this afternoon.

Brown had voted for the Senate's original version of the legislation before the fee was added. So had three other Republicans, but all of their votes are now in question.

The conference bill cannot be amended on the House and Senate floor, which would make a new conference meeting a requirement.

We'll see what happens, but I have been saying for months now that the Republicans will never let financial reform pass, and they are sticking right to the playbook.  When this issue is settled in conference, the Republicans will find something else to complain about and want to take out, all while running out the clock until campaign season.  It nearly worked on health care reform.  The rest of Obama's agenda:  climate legislation, immigration reform, and education reform, aren't going anywhere either.

The Republicans gain nothing if the bill passes, these financial firms have the money to pay off all sides.  But the Democrats lose with the voters if it doesn't pass.  That's been the case all along.

Let's not forget Russ Feingold's idiocy either.  Having this bill fail and making it even harder to pass it in January...that'll show em!

Playing The Paranoia Angle, Part 4

Sharron Angle is thoroughly repugnant and I just don't see how she can beat Harry Reid.  The more digging done on her past, the worse she looks.  This from January:

In a radio interview with Bill Manders on Jan. 25, Sharron Angle — the GOP candidate and Tea Party darling challenging Harry Reid for Nevada’s U.S. Senate seat — came out firmly against abortion. She even took the extreme position that women should not have control over their reproductive rights in cases of rape or incest, because it would interfere with God’s “plan” for them:

MANDERS: Is there any reason at all for an abortion?

ANGLE: Not in my book.

MANDERS: So, in other words, rape and incest would not be something?

ANGLE: You know, I’m a Christian, and I believe that God has a plan and a purpose for each one of our lives and that he can intercede in all kinds of situations and we need to have a little faith in many things.

Rape and incest are part of God's plan?  Seriously?  We're supposed to combat getting pregnant through rape or incest with "a little faith"?  This woman can't be serious.  Of all the terrible answers to give to that question, I think that's the flat out worst.  To tell a rape victim to "have a little faith" when she's pregnant through that horrible act?  This woman's moral center looks like rotten eggplant.

And yet she is.  This is the person chosen by the Nevada GOP to run as a United States Senator.  Look, Harry Reid has his well-documented problems, but this woman is utterly bonkers.  I wouldn't trust her to run an ice cream stand on a July day, much less as a Senator.

Orange Julius Goes To Steeltown

GOP House minority leader John Boehner's truly bizarre interview with the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review this morning is very revealing as to the GOP's 2010 strategy.  Highlights:

"The American people have written off the Democrats," Boehner said Monday in an interview with Tribune-Review editors and reporters. "They're willing to look at us again."

Boehner stopped short of predicting Republicans would gain the 39 seats they need to retake control of Congress, but he said a backlash against President Obama's policies has energized Republican voters more than Democrats. Boehner said voters are angry at a government they believe is overreaching and indifferent.

Stopped short?  Wasn't he predicting 100 House GOP pickups just a couple months ago?  Now he's hedging his bets?  What's going on here, OJ?

Boehner criticized the financial regulatory overhaul compromise reached last week between House and Senate negotiators as an overreaction to the financial crisis that triggered the recession. The bill would tighten restrictions on lending, create a consumer protection agency with broad oversight power and give the government an orderly way to dissolve the largest financial institutions if they run out of money.


"This is killing an ant with a nuclear weapon," Boehner said. What's most needed is more transparency and better enforcement by regulators, he said.

Yeah how dare we try to prevent the next multi-trillion dollar financial bailout when they go bust at the Big Casino again. The only nuclear weapon used was on our economy.  Anyone here want to really argue the FinReg bill goes too far?

But it gets better.

Boehner said Obama overreacted to the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The spill might warrant a "pause" in deepwater drilling, but Obama's blanket ban on drilling in the gulf -- which a judge overturned last week -- could devastate the region's economy, he said. Louisiana State University scientists estimate the ban could have affected more than 10,000 jobs. 

Wait, now Obama overreacted when the complaint was he wasn't doing enough and not showing leadership?   How does that work, OJ?

Ensuring there's enough money to pay for the war will require reforming the country's entitlement system, Boehner said. He said he'd favor increasing the Social Security retirement age to 70 for people who have at least 20 years until retirement, tying cost-of-living increases to the consumer price index rather than wage inflation and limiting payments to those who need them.

To recap, we can afford to bomb chunks of rock in some godforsaken hellhole, but we can't afford to help out retirees.  So that we don't take money away from our children and grandchildren, we have to raise the retirement age and take money away from our children and grandchildren.

Makes perfect sense, I know.  And Republicans wonder why people think they don't have any actual plans other than "Let's do whatever Obama's not doing currently!"

New Cold War, Same Old Spycraft

Yesterday's bust of a Russian spy outfit operating out of New York shows that old habits are hard to break.

"In Moscow, they will be angry," former KGB Colonel and British double agent Oleg Gordievsky told Reuters.

"'How much of the information we got was planted by the FBI -- that's what they'll be wondering in Moscow Center," said Robert Ayers, a former U.S. intelligence officer.

Saying the alleged spy group had recruited political sources and gathered information for the Russian government, U.S. authorities have charged 11 individuals with carrying out deep-cover work to learn about U.S. economic and foreign policy and intelligence and the world gold market.

Russia's Foreign Ministry called the allegations baseless and said it was regrettable that they came after Washington's call for a "reset" in ties between the Cold War foes.

Ayers said the U.S. revelations will have led to a profound "damage assessment" among Moscow's espionage leadership.

He said Russian spy chiefs would also be asking themselves: "If this group did manage to obtain classified information, will the FBI choose to reveal this in open court?"

Court papers show the group was under surveillance for years.

"You're positive no one is watching?" one of the alleged agents asks at a meeting at a New York coffee shop with an FBI agent posing as a Russian, court papers published online show.

The Justice Department documents say the group was given orders to live for years in the United States to cultivate credible backgrounds and spend time getting to know well-placed sources of information.

Ahh, the Great Game is still being played.  But if the Russians really wanted economic and security information that badly, they should just read econ and military bloggers, frankly.  If cable news outfits are just intelligence agencies with commercials and better looking operatives, national security bloggers are minus the commercials and have better writing.

Doesn't somebody over at the Russian Consulate have a subscription to STRATFOR, or read Danger Room, Zero Hedge, RGE Monitor or Long War Journal?  Roubini, Tyler Durden, Spencer Ackerman, Bill Roggio, these guys know what they're talking about, and at the intersection of military and economics you can find a hell of a lot of geopolitical motives.

For instance, if you've been watching these guys and using them to plant false flag stuff for years now, why burn them, you know, now?  What geopolitical motive changed there?  That's my question.

Another Milepost On The Road To Oblivion

Who is being savaged more this week by the ghosts of revisionist history, Robert Byrd or Thurgood Marshall?

Austerity Hysteria, Wild Irish Rose Edition

Ireland's experiments with austerity measures are going very, very badly.

Nearly two years ago, an economic collapse forced Ireland to cut public spending and raise taxes, the type of austerity measures that financial markets are now pressing on most advanced industrial nations.

“When our public finance situation blew wide open, the dominant consideration was ensuring that there was international investor confidence in Ireland so we could continue to borrow,” said Alan Barrett, chief economist at the Economic and Social Research Institute of Ireland. “A lot of the argument was, ‘Let’s get this over with quickly.’ ”

Rather than being rewarded for its actions, though, Ireland is being penalized. Its downturn has certainly been sharper than if the government had spent more to keep people working. Lacking stimulus money, the Irish economy shrank 7.1 percent last year and remains in recession. 

Joblessness in this country of 4.5 million is above 13 percent, and the ranks of the long-term unemployed — those out of work for a year or more — have more than doubled, to 5.3 percent. 

Now, the Irish are being warned of more pain to come.

“The facts are that there is no easy way to cut deficits,” Prime Minister Brian Cowen said in an interview. “Those who claim there’s an easier way or a soft option — that’s not the real world.” 

Austerity measures have done nothing to help the Celtic Tiger.  The country is now trapped in a deep deflationary spiral, and there's end in sight to the pain.  Ireland's bond market is all but a ghost town, as the rapidly shrinking economy is nothing that outside investors want to throw money at.  Those investors are currently pouring into the US Treasuries.  Yesterday bonds rose and the yield is down to 3.02%.  If anything, US debt is among the safest bet out there right now.

The problem is in avoiding turning us into Greece, we're going to end up like Ireland.

Wage cuts were easier to impose here because people remembered that leaders moved too slowly to overcome Ireland’s last recession. This time, Mr. Cowen struck accords swiftly with labor unions, which agreed that protests like those in Greece would only delay a recovery.

But pay cuts have spooked consumers into saving, weighing on the prospects for job creation and economic recovery. And after a decade-long boom that encouraged many from the previous years of diaspora to return, the country is facing a new threat: business leaders say thousands of skilled young Irish are now moving out, raising fears of a brain drain. 

In other words, Ireland now is everything the deficit hawks want for America...and Ireland as a result is falling apart.  Even worse, the coming austerity measures for Germany and Britain, Ireland's major trading partners, mean that there won't be anyone to buy Irish exports.  That will wreck Ireland's economy even more.

In seeking not to make the mistakes Greece did, we also cannot make the mistakes Ireland has, either.  Ireland is where we would be now without the stimulus package enacted last year.  And without something else soon...that danger still exists.

Kaganology 201

The hearings are now upon us, and now that the hours of monologue are over, Day Two begins the hearings in earnest.  Adam Serwer gives you the rundown:

Solicitor General Elena Kagan's nomination to the Supreme Court has drawn glum shrugs from the left and yawns from the right, and that's probably just how the White House wants it -- they are looking for as quiet a confirmation process as possible. Because Kagan has no judicial record or large volume of academic work to speak of, Republicans have been forced to draw on even more specious arguments than usual to gin up opposition to her nomination. 

Which means conservatives risk looking like a bunch of partisan losers, especially when the arguments don't stick and Kagan makes it through even easier than Sonia Sotomayor did.   But, as Serwer reminds us, liberals have a job to do:

Kagan once argued that confirmation hearings had turned into "a repetition of platitudes." She's right -- but her nomination is in part the result of a White House eager to avoid a tough confirmation fight, and so she better be ready to call on those same platitudes to save her from a substantive grilling.

The Democrats on the committee should by no means let her get away with that. Her participation in the continued expansion of government power in the name of national security should be probed carefully. Just because most of the complaints conservatives have about her are baseless doesn't mean Democrats should give her a pass.

The president suggested that Kagan's critics don't have much to use against her. The flip side is that liberals don't really have much to like. Kagan should use the hearings to do more than deflect Republican criticisms. She should also give liberals a reason to vote for her confirmation. Barring some last minute game-changer, Kagan's road to confirmation is likely to be smooth -- all the more reason for Democrats to push for something more than the usual hollow Beltway ritual. 

Sadly, I don't see that happening.   In fact, I predict this hearing is going to be about as boring as watching cement dry, and as a result both sides are going to say really stupid things that have almost nothing to do with Elena Kagan and everything to do with a midterm election coming.

Supreme Consequences

As expected, yesterday's 5-4 ruling against Chicago's handgun ban has opened the door for legal challenges to every state and local handgun restriction in the country.

"It's going to be city by city, town by town, block by block," National Rifle Association Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre vowed Monday. "We're going to have to work into every level to make sure this constitutional victory isn't turned into a practical defeat."

Monday's decision was somewhat predictable, in light of the justices' 5-4 decision in 2008 that first found an individual right to bear arms in the Second Amendment and the tenor of oral arguments in the Chicago case in March.

Yet it greatly expands the force and consequences of the ruling two years ago and generated new concern from city officials worried it would undercut gun laws and lead to more violence.

"Across the country, cities are struggling with how to address this issue," Chicago Mayor Richard Daley said at City Hall. "Common sense tells you we need fewer guns on the street, not more guns."

David Pope, president of the village of Oak Park, outside Chicago, which also was defending a handgun ban, said the ruling curbs local flexibility to address crime. "For a long time, we always thought it was reasonable and constitutional for different cities and towns to have different regulations," he said.

Several large cities, including Baltimore, Cleveland and Oakland, had urged the court not to rule against Chicago. They were joined by three states with urban centers, Illinois, Maryland and New Jersey, that warned if the high court extended the Second Amendment's reach, "nearly every firearms law will become the subject of a constitutional challenge, and even in cases where the law ultimately survives, its defense will be costly and time-consuming."

Kristen Rand, legislative director of the Violence Policy Center, which supports strict gun-control laws, predicted more than a new tide of lawsuits.

"People will die because of this decision," she said. "It is a victory only for the gun lobby and America's fading firearms industry."

No matter which side of this argument you're on, the direct result of this law means there will be more guns on America's streets.

The larger political issue is now that the gun battle now almost perfectly mirrors the abortion battle:  one side wants a complete ban, but the Supreme Court has disagreed, therefore the goal is to make getting one as difficult as possible.  The other side then says there's a right to have one and that more people will die without one as a result of these restrictive laws, and that government interference is wrong.

There's hypocrisy here on both sides.  I'm the kind of guy that wouldn't want to personally obtain either one, but I believe everyone should be given the freedom to exercise that choice.  I don't believe in handgun bans any more than I do abortion bans, but intelligent restrictions are needed on both.

StupidiNews!

• Former Afghanistan theater commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal announced he will be retiring, no date has been set.
• New York Democratic Rep. Nita Lowery says "not one more dime" for Afghanistan until matters of corruption have been settled.
• A candidate for governor of Mexico's border state of Tamaulipas has been assassinated by one of Mexico's powerful drug cartels.
• Google may go dark in China if the country refuses to renew the search engine's operating license later this year over censorship issues.
• The White House is backing the FCC's wireless broadband plan to use the now empty analog TV spectrum for internet.

Last Call

EW's Darren Franich asks:

While the world waits in quiet terror to see if 2011′s Captain America and Thor will be good/bad/worse than Punisher: War Zone, Marvel is launching a surprise attack on the small screen. Today, Marvel Entertainment created a new Television division, to be headed by Jeph Loeb, an iconic comic book writer with a lengthy TV resume. (That resume includes Lost and Heroes, so this could go either way.) There’s more information at Marvel’s website. This thing is still in the early stages, but that doesn’t mean we can’t start writing up a wish list: What Marvel characters need get their own TV show?

Given the success of losers lately in pop culture, (Glee, Big Bang Theory, etc.) I'd love to see Marvel put together a lovable losers squad:  Speedball, Squirrel Girl, Gravity, Slicks...you know, the really lousy superheroes with the not-so-great powers.  Have them fight the classic loser bad guys like Beetle, Stilt Man, Paste Pot Pete, and my personal favorite, The Spot.

If you want to go from D-list to B-list, I got two words for you:  Doctor Strange.  There's an excuse to have any ol' Marvel second banana superhero over:  Luke Cage, Iron Fist, US Agent, Moon Knight, Hawkeye, Vision...

Think "Dresden Files" only a slightly bigger power scale, and better costumes.

Well I'm Glad Somebody Noticed

Hey, here's a question:  If BP goes under, will it take any Wall Street megabanks with it?

After poring over documents and asking banks about their exposure to BP over the past two weeks, the Fed found no systemic risk, and hasn't asked firms to alter their credit relationships with BP, the sources told Reuters.

"The Fed gave banks' exposure to BP a passing grade," said one of the sources on condition of anonymity.

Beyond's BP survival prospects, the Fed examination underscores market uncertainty about how the spill's staggering clean-up bill might affect Wall Street, a fragile economic recovery, or the multitrillion dollar energy market.

BP until recently had stellar credit ratings and generated $30 billion of cash from its oil and gas production and trading over the last year, making it a golden counterparty for many financial firms that trade in energy, including the largest Wall Street banks.

Since April, when it began trying to plug an oil spill that has spewed up to 60,000 barrels a day into the U.S. Gulf, the company has lost $100 billion in stock market value and suffered several credit downgrades.

Everything's fine!  No problems here!  We're all fine!

Isn't this the sort of thing we should have Wall Street financial reform for?  Just asking.

Drawn And One Quartered

A new CBS/Vanity Fair poll shows that 24% of Americans believe Barack Obama was born outside the US.

Long after the question of President Obama’s birthplace should have been put to rest, a new poll shows that nearly one in four Americans believe the “birther” lunacy that the president was born outside the country. The Vanity Fair/60 Minutes poll found that 24 percent of respondents think Obama was born outside the U.S., with six percent saying he was born in Kenya, another two percent choosing Indonesia, and the remainder being unsure of his exact foreign origins.

There a two problems here:  A whole lot of Americans are convinced (we're talking tens of millions here) that Obama isn't American, and I'm not sure if the core problem is A) how stupid Americans are about things like this or B) the fact that the Village won't actively correct stuff like this.  Only 39% of the people asked got the question right:  Hawaii.

It's less Birtherism and more ignorance...but then again the only difference is that Birthers are willfully ignorant.

World Cupdate

Four teams through, four more spots left to be earned, and two decided in today's Group E/F action.  First up, the Netherlands versus Slovakia in a battle of styles, the Oranje were sidling up with a 4-2-3-1 attack led by striker Robin Van Persie, while the Repre went with a basic 4-4-2 squad with Jendrisek and Vittek on the attack.  Both teams had early chances but Holland quickly took over the midfield to try to direct the flow of the game in order to avoid the shock early goals that knocked out the USA, England and Mexico.  Slovakia tried to rush but it was Arjen Robben who stuffed in a brilliant long shot on the counter attack taking advantage of an overeager Slovakian squad at 18'.  The Oranje settled down into a control game, daring the Slovenians to go on the offense so that Holland could counter and Robben nearly did it again late in the period.  The Slovaks just weren't up to the task in the first half and the Dutch owned a good three-quarters of the field.  The second half was more of the same, the Slovaks looking unsure and the Dutch owning the midfield.  Finally with time running out the Slovaks went for broke and ran right into the Dutch counter kill on the break that resulted in a Sneijder header at 84' to seal it.  Slovakia got on the board at the bitter end when a penalty call in the box gave Vitter a goal at 90+ 4' but it meant nothing in the end, and the Dutch advanced easily 2-1.

They would meet the winner of the second game, Brazil taking on Chile in a highly-anticipated matchup where finally one of the South American teams that has all but dominated this tournament would be sent home.  The Canarinhos rolled in with a modified 4-4-2 format, led into battle by the familiar pair of Robinho and Luis Fabiano, while Chile rolled out a 4-3-3 attack, with Sanchez, Suazo, and Beausejour up top.  The real problem for La Roja however were that they were without three of their top defensive men due to bookings.  Estrada, Ponce, and Medel were all gone as a result of the ugly win over Spain, and that meant Chile's offense would have to keep them in this.  Early on it was all Chile as they put pressure on Brazil in the first ten, but Brazil absorbed it and the game moved to the midfield, both sides exploding out on breaks only to be cut off (or in Chile's case, to finish poorly). But the Selecao broke the match wide open with a Juan monster header off a free kick at 34' and then Luis Fabiano acoring at 38', and in the space of five minutes Chile's fate had all but been sealed.  They managed to drag themselves off the field before any further damage could be done, but in the second half Chile swapped in an extra striker in Jorge Valdiva and went 3-3-4, all out offense, but all that did was to allow Brazil to counter attack and Robinho drove the stake through the hearts of La Roja with a laser at 59' that finished the deal.  To their credit, Chile refused to go down without a fight...too bad they went down without actually scoring.  Even on a mediocre day the Samba Kings won 3-0 and the Dutch now have to be very, very nervous.

In Which Greg Sargent Layeth The Smack Down

Greg Sargent steps up to defend his former WaPo colleague, Dave Weigel, from the nefarious forces of...the Washington post newsroom.

Now that the smoke has cleared from the Dave Weigel mess, here's a response to the anonymous sources inside the Post who used Jeffrey Goldberg's blog to urinate on the type of opinionated journalism that Weigel, Ezra Klein and others (myself included) practice.

The sources told Goldberg that practitioners of this type of journalism are not real reporters:

"This is really about the serial stupidity of allowing these bloggers to trade on the name of the Washington Post."

"It makes me crazy when I see these guys referred to as reporters. They're anything but. And they hurt the newspaper when they claim to be reporters."

The cowardly hiding behind anonymity is pathetic enough. But let's take on the substance of this. I submit that someone can be a "real" reporter if he or she is accurate on the facts and fairly represents the positions of subjects; if he or she has a decent sense of what's newsworthy and important to readers; and if readers come away from his or her stuff feeling more informed than they were before.

There's simply no reason why caring what happens in politics -- prefering one outcome to another -- should inherently interfere with this mission. By publicly advertising a point of view, bloggers are simply being forthcoming about their filter: They are letting readers in on what guides their editorial choices. This allows readers to pick and choose communities where they can expect discussions about topics that interest them with other, generally like-minded readers.

There's no basis whatsoever for the B.S. charge that revealing a point of view of necessity compromises the integrity of the actual information purveyed. If Ezra isn't a "real" reporter, why did readers of his stuff feel more informed about the ins and outs of the health care debate than after consuming the work of a hundred other journalists? Why did readers feel more informed by Weigel's stuff about the Tea Partiers than they did by hundreds of more "objective" articles about the topic that appeared in scores of "neutral" publications?

If the reporting on these blogs isn't "real," then why do other news orgs consistently follow up on their scoops? 

Greg has a real point for not just himself but other "newsbloggers" out there that are quoted by newspapers and magazines as legitimate reporting sources...that's because they are legitimate reporting sources, the good ones.  More and more the real news sources are the rapid world news services like Reuters and AP, and more and more bloggers like Greg, Ezra Klein, Josh Marshall, Reid Wilson, etc. who get quoted by newspapers all the time.

They're doing the yeoman's work on this, and the Village knows it.  It's pissing them off and they cut Dave Weigel out.  But it only displays how petty the Village is.

Courting Danger

As widely expected, the Supreme Court struck down Chicago's 28-year old ban on handgun sales, and struck down the auditing board part of the Sarbanes-Oxley accounting legislation enacted after Enron, saying both were unconstitutional.

The courts however did leave open some hope for gun control laws, suggesting that while total bans were unconstitutional such as Chicago's law, some limitations on gun sales were permissible.  It was not the sweeping Second Amendment ruling that firearms advocates wanted.  However this almost certainly means state and local firearms laws will now be challenged across the country.

As far as the SOX auditing board goes, the court found it unconstitutional on grounds that the board was appointed by the SEC, and not by the President.  The court agreed.  However, again the court didn't give the sweeping ruling that corporate advocates wanted, mainly that whole SOX law was unconstitutional on the grounds that the SEC couldn't regulate corporate accounting in that fashion.

Not a real win for anyone today.

Going All In To Take Abortion Out

Orange Julius figures bringing the Stupak Amendment as the first of a new batch of laws banning abortion will earn the GOP the vote in 2010, and this time they figure they have enough Dem votes to get it passed.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) announced this weekend that Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) will soon introduce legislation that would bar Congress from using taxpayer money to support abortions or abortion coverage.

The legislation would extend the so-called "Hyde amendment," which in its current form only applies to Health and Human Services (mainly Medicaid) funds allocated in the department's annual appropriations bill;
the issue came up again during the healthcare reform debate when an amendment by Reps. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) and Joseph Pitts (R-Penn.) to apply the Hyde language to the bill passed the House but not the Senate.

"I believe this must be the next objective for pro-life America," Boehner said, speaking Saturday at the 40th annual National Right to Life Convention in Pittsburgh, Penn. "It's clear from the health care debate that the American people don't want their tax dollars paying for abortion, and a bipartisan majority in the House of Representatives agrees."

And from there Orange Julius and friends force abortion coverage into the realm of no affordability because any insurance carrier that wants to do business will have to then drop abortion coverage or include expensive riders, and then it goes downhill from there.

I really do love how Republicans consider any laws restricting the purchase of firearms as unconstitutional breaches of the rights of Americans, but pile as much restriction as they can on to the federal government regulating a woman's reproductive system.

The Senate After

Although the Senate and the country will badly miss the late Sen. Robert Byrd, the reality is the business of the United States Senate must proceed, and the time to speak of who will serve out Byrd's term is now.  That decision will be made by West Virginia's Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin.  Reid Wilson charts the path ahead:

With Sen. Robert Byrd's (D-WV) passing this morning, his constituents are mourning the loss of their long-time champion. Someone new will soon fill Byrd's seat, but it will be impossible to replace a man who held his seat for 51 years.

WV law gives Gov. Joe Manchin (D) the power to appoint Byrd's replacement. If a vacancy occurs within 2 and a half years of the beginning of the next term, the governor appoints a replacement until that next election. But state law says an election must be called if a vacancy occurs more than 2 and a half years before a term expires. Byrd's term would have had 2 and a half years left as of next week -- July 3.

But a special election is unlikely. State law says Manchin's appointment will be valid "until a successor to the office has timely filed a certificate of candidacy, has been nominated at the primary election next following such timely filing and has thereafter been elected and qualified to fill the unexpired term."

The WV primary took place May 11, making it unlikely that a special election will take place this year. And odd-year elections, used in many states to pick local officials, are a rarity in WV. In recent years, voters went to the polls only in '05, when they voted on a constitutional amendment. No elections were held in '07, '03 or '01.

Because the primary has already occured, the next opportunity to "timely file" will be Jan. '12 -- when Byrd's seat would have come open anyway. A primary would follow in May, with a special election to be held in concurrence with a general election later that year.

There is settled case law on the point. In '94, Kanawha Co. Circuit Court Judge John Hey resigned in April. A local GOP party chairman sued then-Gov. Gaston Caperton (D) to try and compel a special election for the following Nov. The state Supreme Court, in Robb v. Caperton, ruled against the local party chairman and said Caperton's appointee would serve until the '96 election, when the office would have come up for election anyway.

With an election set for more than 2 years away, Manchin has the chance to pick a successor to hold Byrd's seat. It has been an open secret in the Mountineer State for years that Manchin covets a Senate seat, and his second term as the state's chief executive expires after the '12 elections -- meaning he could very likely appoint himself.

I would think that the odds would be very good for Manchin to pull the Senate Shuffle and end up in Byrd's seat.  Whether or not that's a good idea for the Dems, I have no idea.  However with the state's primary already passed, I would think that the election will most likely not be held until 2012...I just don't see the Republicans pushing too hard on this when the seat would got to Manchin anyway.

Anarchy On Your TV Screen

Remember our old friend AL-2 Tea Party nutjob Rick Barber?  Last time we checked he was, well, completely nuts, comparing himself to George Washington leading another American Revolution.  Now he's using Abe Lincoln to declare that taxation is slavery.



No really, that's the schtick.  Taxation = Plantation.  This guy doesn't want to drown government in the bathtub, he wants to target it with artillery strikes.  Here's a guy who honestly believes he should be sent to Washington to dismantle the federal government from the inside.  I get it now, he's an anarchist, right?

I have to admit it's a better campaign slogan than "Vote for me, I'm completly f'cking insane."

An Oil And Water Reaction

Steven D over at BooMan's place catalogs the reaction to the oil disaster of Mississippi GOP Gov. Haley Barbour, and you wonder why I think it's not going to hurt Obama nearly as much as it's going to hurt these red state gubernatorial goofballs.

Out of the 6,000 National Guard troops President Obama has authorized for response in Mississippi, Haley Barbour has mobilized only 58. However, he has declared today to be a Day of Prayer “to remember the Mississippi Gulf Coast.” [...]

“The most important thing right now is the 2010 elections,” Barbour said. “We can’t wait until 2012 to take back our country.”

Fifty-eight National Guardsmen for the entire State of Mississippi? Elections the top priority right now? Any comment people of Mississippi on whether your Governor's priorities are the right ones?

Barbour on Thursday held Washington fund-raisers for the Republican Governors Association, which he heads, and for one of his political action committees, which is raising money for GOP congressional candidates. His fund-raising is receiving some national media attention and fueling speculation that he is already gearing up for a run for president in 2012.

Gosh, I'm sure Barbour would fix everything in a jiffy if he were President, just like he has done such a bang up job as Governor of Mississippi. Can't wait to see him take on Obama in 2012. Can you? 

Nope.  "Accidents Happen.  Vote Republican!"   After all not mobilizing the National Guard and then blaming Obama is much more cost-effective than actually having people clean up the mess.

The Kroog Versus Hope Itself

Paul Krugman has finally thrown up his arms and said "Screw you guys." (Emphasis mine:)

Recessions are common; depressions are rare. As far as I can tell, there were only two eras in economic history that were widely described as “depressions” at the time: the years of deflation and instability that followed the Panic of 1873 and the years of mass unemployment that followed the financial crisis of 1929-31.

Neither the Long Depression of the 19th century nor the Great Depression of the 20th was an era of nonstop decline — on the contrary, both included periods when the economy grew. But these episodes of improvement were never enough to undo the damage from the initial slump, and were followed by relapses.

We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression. It will probably look more like the Long Depression than the much more severe Great Depression. But the cost — to the world economy and, above all, to the millions of lives blighted by the absence of jobs — will nonetheless be immense.

And this third depression will be primarily a failure of policy. Around the world — most recently at last weekend’s deeply discouraging G-20 meeting — governments are obsessing about inflation when the real threat is deflation, preaching the need for belt-tightening when the real problem is inadequate spending. 

Krugman's right that the G-20 deficit hawks have won, pledging to halve their deficits in just 3 years and balance their budgets in six.  The spending cuts that will be needed to do that will almost certainly break our consumer-driven economy, crash what's left of our real estate market, and render untold millions destitute as ten percent unemployment becomes the fondly remembered "good times."

The mindset not that "a rising tide lifts all boats" but "we must suffer badly now or suffer even worse later" is taking over, and it's just as incorrect as Bush's rising tides idiocy was.  We now have the greatest wealth imbalance in this country ever, and it's about to get much, much worse.

We're on a one-way bullet train back to the Gilded Age, folks.  Odds are you're not gilded.  The headline at CNBC this morning?  "Futures Rise As Obama Looks To Austerity".

Gonna get ugly, folks.

StupidiNews!

• West Virginia Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd has passed away at the age of 92.
• Italy's PM Silvio Berlusconi believes Israel will lead a pre-emptive strike on Iran.
• Hearings for Elena Kagan's appointment to the Supreme Court get under way today.
• Tropical Storm Alex may strengthen to a hurricane soon, but will probably miss the spill zone and impact Mexico instead.
• Darwin's mangrove finch may be facing extinction due to evolutionary pressure.

Last Call

Awesome. Let's pay for debtors' prisons instead of getting people jobs in an economy with ten percent unemployment.

It keeps getting better.

The Kroog Versus Harvey

Paul Krugman talks G-20, Austerity Hysteria, and the rate of insanity.

But even stranger, in a way, is the power of invisible bond market friends, who will reward you if you just scourge yourself hard enough. Consider this article in Reuters, which tells us that

A market backlash against countries seen to be dragging their feet on cutting debt and deficits has sparked budget cutbacks all over Europe as governments try to rein in spending.

This seems to imply that countries that haven’t dragged their feet have been rewarded, right? And this is often reported as something that has, in fact, happened — because it’s what’s supposed to happen.

But the rewards to austerity remain, well, invisible. Ireland’s risk spreads are worse than Spain’s, even though Ireland wasted no time on self-flagellation while Spain hesitated. Market confidence in Greece has declined since the government accepted the IMF austerity plan.

Strange: it’s as if bond markets don’t believe that short-term pain that doesn’t improve your long-run budget prospects, but does lead to depression and deflation, makes you a safe bet. But I’ve got an invisible 6-foot rabbit over here who says they’re wrong. Hello, Mr. Smith.

Sadly, it seems the G-20 has gone all in on cutting spending across the board.

Leaders of the world's most important economies agreed to ambitious targets for getting deficits under control, pledging to cut them in half by 2013, according to a statement made following the G-20 summit this weekend in Toronto. 

Republicans here of course will demand more, much more...and they will demand those cuts all come from spending.  The results will be another Hoover 1937 style plunge into the economic abyss.  The suffering will be brutal.

But it will come.

World Cupdate

The Round of 16 continued Sunday with Germany at England, two old foes who have tangled many times in the past.  The Three Lions went 4-4-2 back to front with Jermain Dafoe and the so far less than impressive Wayne Rooney up front, while the Germans went with a more defensive 4-2-3-1 formation now that their star man Miroslav Klose was off booking suspension.  The conflict immediately turned into a wrestling match with the Germans playing brutally physical ball and the Brits responding in kind, but Wayne Rooney was trying far too hard to be the hero and started making mistakes...mistakes like forgetting to defend and pick up Miroslav Klose, who belted in one at 20'.  A follow-up score by Podolski shattered the England D, and suddently the Three Lions were looking more like paper tigers.  Klose and company dominated the first half in possession, quality, and shots taken.  England finally got it together long enough to counterattack with Upson getting a goal at 37', and the game was truly on.  The second half was a British assault as they threw everything they had at the German machine to dismantle it, and for at least 20 minutes Britain looked like they would equalize at any time.  All the more shame when Thomas Muller put in not one goal at 67' for the Germans but a second at 70', utterly decimating the Brits and leaving them broken on the pitch.  England's defenders just weren't up to the game that Klose and Muller were playing and they tore the Three Lions to shreds.  Germany's 4-1 decisive win had to weigh heavily on the minds of both Argentina and Mexico playing the late game to see who would get the honor of being fed to Klose and company next.

Meanwhile Argentina and Mexico faced off in the late game with La Albicelestes fronting a 4-4-2 back to front with Carlos Tevez and Gonzalo Higuain leading, while Mexico went with an more offensive 4-3-3 plan with Hernandez, Dos Santos and Bastita on the attack.  From the get go it was clear that Mexico came to play, but it was Argentina on top earlywith a Carlos Tevez goal that should have been called offsides at 25'.  No sooner had El Tri stopped grumbling about that gift of a goal then they let in another this time Higuain at 33'.  Mexico was playing better but were getting destroyed.  El Tri tried to rally but Argentina simply closed down the lanes and starved Mexico out for the rest of the half.  The second half found Tevez putting the exclamation point on the game with a ripper at 52'.  Mexico tried to claw back in it and pushed forward, finally getting on the board at 71' with an outstanding touch and blast move that stunned both defender and keeper.  Time more the enemy now than anything else, El Tri drove forward to try to complete the comeback and very nearly scored again at 81', but Argentina simply waited out the clock and took the easy 3-1 victory.  Argentina will face Germany for the second quarterfinal spot.

Last Day Of Term

The Supreme Court's final day of the 2009-2010 term is Monday, and it means Justice Stevens will have his last day on the court then.  Two major rulings are expected Monday as well, one which could end Sarbanes-Oxley accounting rules, and the other could mean the end of virtually all local and state handgun control laws, leaving only national ones.

At issue is whether the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) violated the U.S. Constitution's separation of powers principle, because board members are not appointed by the president.

At stake in the case is how corporate America is audited and a key provision of the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate reform law adopted in 2002 in response to the Enron and WorldCom accounting scandals.

If the Supreme Court strikes down the board, the ruling will put pressure on Congress to revisit the law, opening it up for potential changes in the reporting duties of companies.

Susan Hackett, senior vice president and general counsel of the Association of Corporate Counsel, cited the current anti-corporate sentiment and said the ruling could result in broad changes in the law by Congress.

"It is conceivable that the re-proposed legislation would become a Christmas tree on which every ornament of corporate reform and governance will be hung," she said.

The law's defenders told the Supreme Court the board has led to substantial progress in meeting the goal of Congress of improving the quality of audits and increasing investor confidence.

In the gun rights case, even gun control advocates said they expect the Supreme Court to strike down Chicago's 28-year-old handgun ban.

They said they also expect the court to extend its landmark 2008 ruling that individual Americans have a constitutional right to own guns to all the cities and states.

The rulings, if they come down as expected from the Roberts Court, will be major victories for corporations and the gun lobby, as the courts would enshrine the second amendment as meaning that no law can abridge the constitutional right for anyone to own a firearm...possibly even striking a challenge to federal gun control laws as well.

Tomorrow may make America a considerably different place.

Sunday Funnies: It's The McSame Old Spy Games Edition

Ahh Bobblespeak Translations, how you make sense of the chaos...

Tapper: the USA is the greatest country in the
world - so of course we are threatened in every corner of the globe

Panetta: of course

Tapper: this has been the deadliest month ever
for NATO forces - what the hell is going in Afghanistan Leon?

Panetta: lots of heroin production Tapper

Tapper: but what about our military efforts?

Panetta: we have 150,000 troops to go after
15 guys in Al Qaeda there

Tapper: that seems like overkill

Panetta: well it won’t work anyway - it’s all up
to the people of Afghanistan to embrace
the US empire

Tapper: will they?

Panetta: things are getting less worse

Tapper: is the Taliban stronger than when
Obama took office?

Panetta: well sure - but on the bright side we
killed that fascist weirdo who went around
dressed as a woman

Tapper: Rudy Giuliani?

Panetta: damm right

I laugh because I care.

The Unkindest Cuts

Let's remember that the point of Austerity Hysteria is that the wealth redistribution in this country from 300,000,000 Americans to a handful of a couple of thousand oligarchs cannot be completed as long as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid still exist.  The goal is to cut or eliminate them, along with as many other social programs as possible.  D-Day reports on the latest efforts to convince America to slit it own throat, and how it is meeting resistance.

The America Speaks meetings held in 19 cities across the country today, funded to the tune of $1 billion dollars by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, were a study in how subtle messaging and deficit hyping can mold and shape opinions that move the public toward right-wing solutions about slashing social spending. Despite an insistence of neutrality, organizers of this series of town hall meetings allowed their agenda to show through, particularly in their presentation of options for how to deal with the nation’s fiscal future. But attendees in Los Angeles and around the country weren’t totally buying it in the first half of the meeting.

The Peterson Foundation is dedicated to balancing the budget by eliminating as much spending as possible, and starting with Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.  And they have a whole hell of a lot of money to try to convince us that if that doesn't happen, America will be destroyed.  They have a plan and they are executing it.

“Everything must be on the table,” said David Walker, and while everything certainly was at the meeting, it was tilted in a particular direction. The meeting was designed to provide an outline of the fiscal challenges of the nation, and offer solutions for how to meet it. But all the solutions were very prescribed and very narrow. An authoritative “Options Workbook” sets out potential budget solutions, on the spending and revenue side. 28 pages cover spending cuts, 15 pages cover revenue solutions. And the very first pages of the workbook talk about cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.

While the workbook has pages and pages describing the health care system, the final menu of solutions simply list amounts of percentage cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, without mentioning how to achieve those cuts. The options to “achieve savings” in the program include means-testing, raising deductibles and co-pays, increasing the Medicare eligibility age, limiting Medicaid eligibility and voucher-izing Medicare. There are no progressive solutions nor is there anything close to the potential savings achieved in the Affordable Care Act, things like health IT and bundled payments and increased efficiency.

On Social Security, a more precise menu of options is offered, but so is a drastic description of the solvency of the program, without one mention of the trillions of dollars of surplus in the Social Security trust fund. The options in the workbook include raising the retirement age, cutting benefits through indexing or straight cuts, raising the payroll tax, raising the “limit of taxable earnings” (but not just eliminating the limit) and “creating personal savings accounts within the system,” the language of which has been taken completely from Republican Paul Ryan’s “roadmap” budget.

When the workbook finally gets around to tax increases, the language in the text constantly goes back to how taxing wealthier Americans would “reduce incentives for work and savings.” At one point it says that “Tax increases on upper-income Americans will discourage work and penalize success.” It talks about raising the corporate tax rate but not the effective tax rate, as in reality many corporations pay nothing in taxes. And writing about deductions, little in the workbook talks about the vast amount of subsidies for corporations and, for example, Big Agriculture. Only two specific corporate deductions, for depreciation for equipment and for producing goods in the US, get a mention. That a financial transactions tax makes it into the document (literally as the last option) is surprising, but predictably, the workbook says it could “move stock transactions to other markets.” Growing the economy and the effect of job creation on revenue appears nowhere in the document.

This is GOP economic dogma through and through, and the Peterson Foundation is launching "workshops" like these to scare the hell out of Americans across the country.   We need multi-billion dollar strike fighters and Predator drones and missiles to stop guys with AK-47s, but to pay for it we have to make poor and elderly people suffer because we can never tax the rich to the same extent we tax regular Americans.  Luckily, the folks in Los Angeles weren't drinking the neo-Hoover Kool-Aid.

The propaganda may have wound up being too subtle. Via the America Speaks twitter feed, the top three options at the meetings selected by the participants were: raising the limit on taxable earnings in Social Security, a 5% tax increase on people making over $1 million dollars a year, a carbon tax, and a tax on financial transactions. Whoops!

People would rather increase taxes than lose vital social programs.  Imagine that.

Reprioritizing Gitmo

Since the President discovered the hard way that it's tough to close Gitmo when your own party is too scared to do it, it looks like that little promise is going down the drain for good.

When the White House acknowledged last year that it would miss Mr. Obama’s initial January 2010 deadline for shutting the prison, it also declared that the detainees would eventually be moved to one in Illinois. But impediments to that plan have mounted in Congress, and the administration is doing little to overcome them.

“There is a lot of inertia” against closing the prison, “and the administration is not putting a lot of energy behind their position that I can see,” said Senator Carl Levin, the Michigan Democrat who is chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee and supports the Illinois plan. He added that “the odds are that it will still be open” by the next presidential inauguration.

And Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican who also supports shutting it, said the effort is “on life support and it’s unlikely to close any time soon.” He attributed the collapse to some fellow Republicans’ “demagoguery” and the administration’s poor planning and decision-making “paralysis.”

The White House insists it is still determined to shutter the prison. The administration argues that Guantánamo is a symbol in the Muslim world of past detainee abuses, citing military views that its continued operation helps terrorists.

“Our commanders have made clear that closing the detention facility at Guantánamo is a national security imperative, and the president remains committed to achieving that goal,” said a White House spokesman, Ben LaBolt.

Still, some senior officials say privately that the administration has done its part, including identifying the Illinois prison — an empty maximum-security center in Thomson, 150 miles west of Chicago — where the detainees could be held. They blame Congress for failing to execute that endgame.

“The president can’t just wave a magic wand to say that Gitmo will be closed,” said a senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal thinking on a sensitive issue. 

Since Republicans can't help themselves and automatically play the fear card whenever possible and say that terrorists have super powers and will kill everyone you know if Gitmo is ever closed, it's hard to get things like that doen when the Village and Dems in Congress tkae them seriously.  After all, they've been trained to do so over the last seven years and it's hard to break.

Second, let's not forget that the Republicans are sworn to destroy this President and to oppose everything he does for the simple reason that he's a Democrat.  Despite the fact that reality would seem to dictate the Republicans have no credibility on terrorism after 9/11, Democrats still cower in fear every time a Republican says 9/11 and acts like Bush didn't fail to stop it from happening.

The Obama administration's mistake was underestimating the hatred the Republicans have for him, and the cowardice of his own party.