Zandar's 2023 Predictions

Another year, another look into the crystal ball as I try to predict 2023's political, social, economic, technological and scientific future. My record as a futurist  over the years is fair to middling at best, and your various pets are probably better at this than I am for crying out loud. We'll see how I fare 365 days from now, and away we go, picking up from 2022's "Didn't happen but should" category:

1) GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy still won't be House Speaker.  This one, carried over from last year, assumed falsely that he'd get the Paul Ryan heave-ho. This time around we'll find out for sure in a few days. I expect multiple votes to fail, and for another Republican to step in, the smart money being on Rep. Steve Scalise.

2) Donald Trump will finally be indicted.  It may be in Georgia for election tampering, it may be in New York for tax fraud or his payment to Stormy Daniels, or (far less likely) Special Counsel Jack Smith and AG Merrick Garland will finally present their grand unified federal case.  But Trump doesn't have any more clock to run out. SCOTUS has left him wide open and vulnerable. How the country reacts to these indictments will determine much of our future as a democracy. If he's not indicted by the end of 2023, he never will be.

3) The Supreme Court will end affirmative action in college admissions. This one's as easy as falling off a log, folks. There are five, if not six votes (depending on Chief Justice Roberts) to dismantle race as a factor in getting into college, and depending on how broad the decision is, it could end some scholarships based on race, heritage grants, or even funding for HBCUs. As with 2022's destruction of abortion rights and executive agency rulemaking, this too will have a deleterious effect on the country for decades.

4) But, SCOTUS will side with the Biden Administration on ending Title 42.  It has to, otherwise the Supreme Court would be sending immigration to the states and throwing the entire federal immigration system out. Both Gorsuch and Roberts seem very reluctant to do so, Roberts seemed like he stayed the lifting of Title 42 until a decision comes down by June.

5) I want to be wrong on this, but I believe a multi-state attack on power substations in order to cause a blackout is inevitable. It will be a simultaneous strike on dozens of substations in several states that will knock out power to millions. There have been multiple small scale attacks that are still being called "vandalism" at this point, not "terrorism". That will change in 2023.

6) Jerome Powell and the Fed will at last begin to cut interest rates.  This won't happen until the second half of the year and only then after signs of a stalled economy, reduced inflation and even monthly job losses, but we'll see the Fed cut rates before the year is out.

7) Phase 5 of the MCU makes $1 billion in 2023. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania will introduce the Big Bad for the next few years in Kang the Conqueror, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will be a huge hit, and The Marvels will top it off this summer.  People are going to want an escape, and they will go to theaters to get there. 

8) Dow 36,000, no seriously this time.  Especially if number 6 is true, lowering interest rates will be like market steroids. 2022 was effectively a bear market. Then again, post-Covid, the Dow almost doubled in two years before coming back to earth. Things will rebound as Biden's infrastructure and climate change legislation starts kicking in.

9) My "way out there" prediction this year is Russian forces leave Ukraine.  Yeah I know, the only sucker bet in the world worse than SCOTUS-watching is "less war!" But if things continue to go as badly for Putin as I think things will, including a "big" offensive in early 2023 that stalls out and finally breaks the Russian army, it's possible that he cuts his losses. Which would be good. It's far better than my other Way Out There At Number Nine prediction, which is China invading Taiwan...

And finally...

10) ZVTS rolls on for another year.  I appreciate all of you sticking with me as this journey continues. We've navigated some dangerous waters and had some big wins and big losses in 2022, but I'll be here to continue to document the happenings. Thank you for being a reader, and I hope you'll continue to stay with us.

We'll see how it goes.

Holidaze Week: Rest In Peace

It always seems like there are several globally notable deaths at the end of the year, and 2022 was no different.

Brazilian soccer giant Pele passed away at 82:

The standard-bearer of “the beautiful game” had undergone treatment for colon cancer since 2021. The medical center where he had been hospitalized for the last month said he died of multiple organ failure as a result of the cancer.

“Pelé changed everything. He transformed football into art, entertainment,” Neymar, a fellow Brazilian soccer star, said on Instagram. “Football and Brazil elevated their standing thanks to the King! He is gone, but his magic will endure. Pelé is eternal!”

A funeral was planned for Monday and Tuesday, with his casket to be carried through the streets of Santos, the coastal city where his storied career began, before burial.

Widely regarded as one of soccer’s greatest players, Pelé spent nearly two decades enchanting fans and dazzling opponents as the game’s most prolific scorer with Brazilian club Santos and the Brazil national team.

Legendary news anchor and interviewer Barbara Walters has died at age 93:

Walters joined ABC News in 1976, becoming the first female anchor on an evening news program. Three years later, she became a co-host of "20/20," and in 1997, she launched "The View."

Bob Iger, the CEO of The Walt Disney Company which is the parent company of ABC News, praised Walters as someone who broke down barriers.

“Barbara was a true legend, a pioneer not just for women in journalism but for journalism itself. She was a one-of-a-kind reporter who landed many of the most important interviews of our time, from heads of state to the biggest celebrities and sports icons. I had the pleasure of calling Barbara a colleague for more than three decades, but more importantly, I was able to call her a dear friend. She will be missed by all of us at The Walt Disney Company, and we send our deepest condolences to her daughter, Jacqueline,” Iger said in a statement Friday.

In a career that spanned five decades, Walters won 12 Emmy awards, 11 of those while at ABC News.

She made her final appearance as a co-host of "The View" in 2014, but remained an executive producer of the show and continued to do some interviews and specials for ABC News.

"I do not want to appear on another program or climb another mountain," she said at the time. "I want instead to sit on a sunny field and admire the very gifted women -- and OK, some men too -- who will be taking my place."

And finally, Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI has passed at age 95: 

Dignitaries and religious leaders have been paying tribute to Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI, who died Saturday in a monastery in the Vatican at the age of 95.

Benedict, who was the first pontiff in almost 600 years to resign his position, rather than hold office for life, passed away on Saturday, according to a statement from the Vatican.

“With sorrow I inform you that the Pope Emeritus, Benedict XVI, passed away today at 9:34 in the Mater Ecclesiae Monastery in the Vatican,” the Director of the Press Office of the Holy See, Matteo Bruni said.

The funeral of Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI will be held on Thursday in St. Peter’s Square in the Vatican City at 9:30 a.m. local time, Bruni said. The funeral will be led by Pope Francis.

The former pope’s body will lie in state in St. Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican from Monday for the faithful to bid farewell, Vatican News reported Saturday. As per the wish of Pope Emeritus, his funeral will be “simple,” Bruni said.

Needless to say, all three changed the world, for better (or in the last example, don't get me started on the "for worse" part.)

 

Zandar's 2022 Prediction Scorecard

 It's time to take stock of how my picks, pans, predictions and prognostications proceeded here in 2022, you know, with the fate of the country at stake and all if I was wrong.  Luckily, I did pretty well this year, as we run down my dartboarding.

1) Democrats keep the Senate in 2022. I can't in good faith call the House at this point. But I do know that as Mitch McConnell has proven, keeping the Senate when you have the White House means there's a lot you can do, and Biden has gotten a record number of federal judiciary appointments. The next Supreme Court justice could happen at any time, as we've seen. Without the House, things would be terrible. But without the Senate, it'll be catastrophic.

 

I get full credit for this one, and thank the universe for that.

2) Nancy Pelosi steps down as House Democratic Leader. I hate to say it, even after the long years she has proven that she has been the most effective House leader the Democrats have seen in my lifetime, but I think she steps down in 2022 and will not run as Speaker or House Minority Leader in 2023.

 

She went out on her terms, in her own time, with her own successor in Hakeem Jeffries. Another point.

3) Donald Trump is indicted in the state of New York. Don't ask me about the federal charges, but I honestly believe NY AG Tish James is going to try to prosecute Donald Trump, and it's going to be one of the most fateful chapters in our modern political history.

Not yet. Trump was able to delay indictments until 2023, and maybe further.

4) COVID-19 deaths will surpass 1.2 million total in the US. The good news here is that 2022 will thankfully have fewer deaths than 2020 or 2021, but not by much. We'll still have to contend with a very bad winter, but if we can get past that, I think there's finally some hope.

We got to 1.1 million. Not quite as bad as predicted, but still very close. Half credit.

5) The Supreme Court will gut/overturn Roe v. Wade. At this point the writing is on the courtroom wall. Roe is dead, and individual states will move to either regulate safe abortion out of existence, criminalize it with heavy penalties for women, doctors, and health care professionals, make crossing state lines to get a abortion elsewhere illegal, ban it altogether, or all of the above. It won't end abortion, just safe ones. It will change America for a generation.

I wish I was wrong here, but this was patently obvious back in December 2021 when I predicted this. A full point I dearly wish I did not get.

6) The Supreme Court will also gut executive agencies. This will be a massive win for corporations, but the bottom line is agencies like OSHA, FDA, CDC, SEC, EPA, you name it, it will be essentially turned off. I don't know what all will be stricken down, but it's going to be a huge mess when it happens. This too will change America for a generation.

This too was eminently predictable, and we'll be paying dearly for the West Virginia v EPA decision for decades to come. Another point I badly wish I was wrong about.

7) The Dow will finish the year above 36,000. I mean that's where it ended the year, so what I basically mean is I'm not predicting a recession, yay! I hope I'm right. If I'm correct on some of these previous predictions, well, things can go badly quickly.

A complete whiff here, the Dow closed the year at 33,145 with two recessionary GDP quarters in the first half, and the Fed tightening the screws with no letup in sight.

8) Marvel films will make another billion in 2022. Since it seems movie-watching in theaters is now officially back as of December, May's Doctor Strange sequel, July's Thor: Love and Thunder, and November's Black Panther 2 should easily gross a billion combined, if not more.

And even with as much criticism as Marvel's Phase 4 took in 2022, people still went to see the MCU. The three movies made nearly $1.2 billion collectively in the domestic market, and worldwide made a hefty $2.5 billion. No failures here, the box office is back, and in other movies, Top Gun: Maverick almost clearing $1.5 billion worldwide by itself, with Avatar: The Way of Water still going strong at $1.16 billion and Jurassic Park: Dominion clearing a billion even.  

9) GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy is booted from the House GOP leadership. I don't know who will lead the House GOP in 2023, but I can guarantee you it won't be McCarthy. And I think things will be so bad he'll make his plans known, like Pelosi, that he's "stepping down". The difference is with McCarthy, it won't be a choice.

Not so far, but we'll find out in a week, won't we? 

10) ZVTS will roll on for another year. It's because of you guys, you know this, and we'll sail into year 14 and then some. I want to honestly thank you, the readers. When I started this back in 2008, I had no idea where the country would go. I made the journey along with you, and I'm glad you're here, new or old.

A free point as usual, and the sentiment stands.  This blog is old enough to be driving in the parking lot. I never thought I'd make it this far, let alone have you all still with me.

Thank you.

I finish out the year with 6.5 out of 10, a better than average year for my scorecard.

As usual, my 2023 predictions coming later today.