Obama Defeats McCain

News outlets are calling it for Obama with him flipping Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio the big one...Virginia just called for Obama...297 EVs here at 11 PM.

He did it. He's our next President.

He did it.

A black man is our President. A man like me.

I'm choked up here watching the crowds.

Now the test begins. John Sidney McCain...not McSame...concedes.

New tags for the both of them. President Obama....McCain.

McSame Reads The Riot Act

In Toledo, OH police there have been instructed to have riot gear on hand for today and tomorrow according to the local NBC affiliate.

TOLEDO, OHIO -- Toledo police are gearing up for possible "Civil unrest" during and after tomorrow's elections.

In an internal memo obtained exclusively by NBC 24 News, officers are ordered to "Have their riot equipment with them Tuesday and Wednesday". Police chief Mike Navarre confirms, officers will have gear similar to the equipment they used during the 2005 race riots. "They have been asked to have their helmets and their gas masks available tomorrow and Wednesday.", Navarre says, "That's the equipment they would not normally carry with them on a normal day".

Navarre also says, officers will not be stationed at individual polling stations. But the memo says otherwise. It reads, "On Tuesday, units shall be directed to patrol the polling locations".

Now, why would that be?

The McSame campaign issued a statement this morning warning Americans that once again all the exit polls will be wrong.

As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.

However, we want to remind the campaign that the media's own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate's support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.

Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:

1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.

2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.

3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.

4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.

5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.

After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.

the McSame campaign is already preempting the exit polls and saying they will be wrong, just like in 2004. They say 2008 will be similar. If the polls are wrong by 5.5%, this will be a lot closer than any of us can imagine. The McSame camp is already warning they will be off by similar amounts.

Now why would that be?

McSame's campaign is predicting wins in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida again despite the polls.

Eight hours in to his 20-hour day on the campaign trail, a confident John McCain has already predicted victories in the battleground states of Florida and Pennsylvania, even though the polls in both of those states are leaning towards Barack Obama.

"We're going to win Pennsylvania tomorrow and I'm going to be the President of the United States," McCain said. "Pennsylvania will do it, and Pittsburgh will be the important area."

His campaign manager Rick Davis outlined a strategy where McCain could conceivably come from behind and win both here and in Florida, because he believes the polls in the urban areas of those states are overrepresented.

"You look at Pennsylvania, for instance. He's underperforming Kerry in almost every one of the Kerry counties outside of Philadelphia. We're over performing Bush in almost in almost every one of the Bush counties in Pennsylvania. So, I mean, he's not getting the Democratic vote and we're getting more than our share of the Republican vote, but his margin in Philadelphia, again, very much like Miami, it's 40-plus. The last poll I saw had him plus 40 in Philadelphia," Davis said.

"Bush lost Philadelphia by 18 percent, so you're not going to lose it by 40. If you can figure out what I'll lose it by, you'll know whether or not I can win Pennsylvania."

Those numbers will depend on voter turnout, which is why McCain is hitting seven different states today to try and rally his base to turn out. He still has events in Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, and his traditional last stop in Prescott, Arizona, before calling it a day.

Now, why would that be? Why does McSame's camp think urban numbers are overrepresented and that the polls are wrong across the board, and that they are confident they will win today?

Part of that I explained yesterday. Anything short of an Obama landslide will be challenged in court. However, the plan works much better if McSame can mysteriously squeak by in the precincts he needs to squeak by in.

It's not a done deal yet folks. McSame fully expects to win. He is now counting on the exit polls to not match voter totals. Police have been warned across the country to be on alert for not just today but tomorrow as well.

Now, why would that be?

We're not just peeking at his cards. He's showing us his hand full-on and daring us to beat him. He's telling us the polls in Florida, PA, and Ohio are going to be wrong and he's going to win there.

He's telling us that something is rotten in the state of Denmark, OH, PA, FL, NC, GA, VA, CO, NV, NM, IN, MO...

These are all states close to that 5.5% Kerry 2004 "poll margin of error" the the McSame camp claims is normal. Hell, PA would have to be off by 8 or 9 points. But he's still claiming a win there.

Now, why would that be?

GO. VOTE. And while you're there, be on the lookout for anyone turned away. Ask them why they were turned away. Help them if you can. Give them your cell phone, let them call 1-866-OUR-VOTE.

And pray the election isn't already decided. Because a lot of people seem to think McSame is going to win tonight...a lot more than realistically should.

Now, why would that be?

StupidiNews, Election Day Edition

GO VOTE ALREADY.

• CNN has a voting problem hotline to call if you are experiencing problems (877-GOCNN-08).
• More voting irregulaities and numbers you can call can be found at Bradblog.com.
• Learn how to steal back your vote!
• Yahoo is already reporting glitches and long lines on the East Coast.
• Police in nearby Toledo have been appraised to have riot gear on hand today and tomorrow.

Zandar's Crystal Ball

I suppose it's prediction time for tomorrow.

It comes down to which models you believe in, the old 2004 turnout models, or the new 2008 turnout models. The new models are the ones showing Obama winning this by 8 points or so, a Clinton-Dole style victory that gives him 330-340 EVs or so (OH, FL, VA, CO, NM, NV) or if the turnout models are right, he scores a Democratic tidal wave that gives him a mind-melting 400+ Electoral Votes.

In this Blue Tsunami model, Obama takes GA, NC, MO, IN, and even AZ, MT and ND, giving him 406. It would be a complete meltdown of the GOP.

But the GOP insists that the 2008 turnout models are completely wrong, that low turnout favors the Republicans this year, high turnout favors the Dems, but extremely high turnout again favors the GOP because of the twin motivations of the media picking on Sarah Palin, and the press crowning Barack Obama beforehand.

The GOP "landslide" model works like this, basically, five groups of voters will be motivated to vote for the Republican ticket:

1. Disaffected Hillary Clinton voters, (PUMAs),
2. Centrist Democrats who think Obama's a Socialist (McSame/Blue Dog Dems),
3. White Voters who think Obama played the race card too often (Bradley Effectees),
4. Female Voters who think the Dems are sexist (Palinocrats)
5. Voters who have been convinced by the internet rumors swirling around Obama (Low-Infocrats)

And if enough of these voters show up, they will either counter Obama's ground game or simply overwhelm it. The polling outfits are all wrong, says this theory. The turnout percentages will be almost identical to 2004, and McSame will pull out victory in the tossup states (NC, FL, OH, CO, VA, MO, IN, AZ, NV) plus PA (in the narrow win scenario, McSame 281, Obama 257) and will actually go on to flip Minnesota, New Hampshire, and possibly even Wisconsin, giving the GOP a staggering victory.

They are especially counting on the defection of the PUMA voter and the Palinocrats to give them an unprecedented win. The model states that Obama's decision of Joe Biden over Hillary doomed him from the start.

It's crazy, I know. But it's certainly possible...people do win the lottery too.

So, the four outcomes are:

1. Obama total landslide (406-132)
2. Obama strong victory (340-198)
3. McSame squeaker (281-257, PA the decider)
4. McSame strong victory (310-228)

I'm betting on the second. I'm not ruling out the first or the third. The last one there is...not going to happen. I'm leaning towards the first however. The barrier between 1 and 2 there is not that much, frankly. If he holds on and takes PA and VA, the barrier falls if NC and GA go for Obama tomorrow night. If Obama scores either one of those it's going to be closer to scenario 1 (375+) than 2, if he gets both the national race could be over by 9 PM. Missouri and Indiana will tell the tale, if they too go Obama then he's looking at reaching 400 and #1 up there.

Likewise if PA falls, Obama is in serious trouble. You'll know McSame is on his way to victory should the Keystone state be the keystone and he holds on in NC and GA. Should he take VA too, it's going to be a very, very long night for the Obama campaign.

So, the states to watch tomorrow night are PA, NC, GA, and VA. Whoever takes 3 of 4 wins the election, because they will most likely go on to win both Florida and Ohio, and the Presidency.

Obama's Grandmother Passes Away

The woman who helped raise Obama has, sadly, herself succumbed to cancer.

"It is with great sadness that we announce that our grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died peacefully after a battle with cancer," Obama said in a joint statement with his sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng. "She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility."

Dunham helped raise Obama from the age of 10 while his mother was working in Indonesia, and Obama took an emotional 22-hour trip to Hawaii to visit her on October 23 and 24.

I recall losing my own grandmother in May, and my heart goes out to the man. No matter what America decides tomorrow, I know how he feels.

One Night In Cincy Makes A Hard Man Humble

Back from the rally, and it was amazing.

I don't know how many people were there but most of the stadium was full and the field level was full of people standing, local news call it at 27,000 and it was at least that if not 30k.

The podium was set up in the end zone. Cincy Mayor Mark Mallory was there, as was Ohio Governor Strickland. I had a chance to talk to some folks from nearby Hamilton Ohio, as well as an Arvin Meritor worker from my neck of KY, young white guy there with his wife. The man told me flat out he drove up here because he believes McSame is going to cost him his job. He has time to vote, turns out his hours have been cut to 3-4 days a week.

Obama himself was a very impressive public speaker. He's been to Cincy a couple of times actually, because the Obama folks believe Hamilton County could decide Ohio this year. I believe it.

They're going to vote on Tuesday. The guy, Brian, told me he had never voted before. He never cared enough to do so. Now he does.

It's going to be amazing.

If my brothers in NC are voting, one 27 and already cynical, one 32 and married for a year, neither one active in politics, neither one has bothered to vote before either just like Brian, then as Zandardad says, "If your brothers are voting Obama, he's going to win."

Indeed they are both for Obama. Hell, one of them stood in line for 4 hours to vote early.

We gotta run up the score, folks.

StupidiNews!

• Final polls show Obama ahead in nearly all the battleground states, and with enough electoral votes to win without the toss-ups.
• Behold the 100-calorie Twinkie!
• California's voter battle over same-sex marriage is neck and neck, despite the Presidential election.
• House Democrat John Dingell is asking the networks not to call the election too soon.
• Circuit City is closing 155 stores and laying off thousands as the bleak holiday shooing season opens.

Rally Caps!

Off to tonight's Obama rally in Cincy.

Catch you later.

McSame Shows His Hand

Today on FOX News, McSame campaign manager Rick Davis revealed his strategy for winning on Wednesday: Taking Obama to court in every state that Mcsame doesn't win.

If the McCain campaign believes voter fraud from groups like ACORN tainted the result of Tuesday's election, it will resort to "legal remedies," McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said.

Fox's Chris Wallace asked Davis the following: "But I just want to make it clear. You reserve the right, if you feel that something has gone down wrong in any state in the country, that you'll go to court."

Davis responded: "Absolutely. There's no question that we're going to monitor this election. We have the largest election day operation in the history of our party's activities to ensure that we have a fair and honest election."

Alluding to past election fraud, Wallace asked Davis if allegations of Republicans suppressing voters could create a "blizzard of lawsuits" that would prevent a decisive tally for weeks after Tuesday.

"I think on Wednesday morning you'll wake up and John McCain will be president elect," Davis said.

When Wallace questioned Davis about recent allegations that Republicans are preventing thousands of eligible voters from casting their vote, Davis said the fault lies with "liberal activist groups."

"What's happened is a bunch of liberal activist groups like ACORN and others... have taken it upon themselves to try and frame this election as anything but honest," Davis said.

The GOP has denounced the accusations of voter suppression as a "reckless strategy" of the Obama campaign, which has released fliers warning of the issue.

Davis pointed to the federal investigation underway against ACORN as an example of liberals, and not Republicans, being guilty of fraudulent election practices.

"In fact, if there's anything to look at, it's the manipulation of these voter rolls before the election that's caused so many problems," Davis said. "We're not going to stand for it."

Pay attention folks. The real battle for the Presidency will only partially be fought on Tuesday. The GOP still controls the courts.

The election will not be over on Wednesday. Should Obama actually come out ahead by anything less than a massive landslide, the GOP will sue, sue, sue.

They will try to paint Obama as illegitimate as possible. What Democrats SHOULD have done to Bush in 2000 will instead be done to Obama in 2008.

Stay tuned. This is just beginning. Should Obama win Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, I predict McSame lawsuits in all three states as well as Virginia, NC, and Colorado if they go blue.

These lawsuits will seek to disenfranchise millions upon millions of voters. I guarantee it. McSame will not roll over like Gore did in 2000. No way. No how. Obama must have cheated and we'll sue and sue and sue until the Supremes step in and decide this election again. Watch. It's coming.

I hope I'm wrong. I really, honestly hope to God, Goddess, Allah, Buddha, Sikkar the Lightbringer and the Flying Spaghetti Monster that I'm wrong and Obama's margin of victory just crushes McSame across the board in battleground state after battleground state.

So vote Tuesday by all means. We have to run up the scoreboard. Vote Monday if you can. But keep in mind Rick Davis has revealed his campaign's hand: John McSame's temperament will not allow him to lose without a violent and ugly fight, the result of which at the minimum will be to make Obama look as illegitimate as Bush 43 should have looked to the nation in January 2001. The wingnuts will not allow him to give up. And the whole rotten stinking kettle of fish may end up in front of the ultimate activist judge panel.

What does John McSame know that we don't know? What gives him that preternatural calmness and confidence? He knows the true battle begins Wednesday.

Does anyone here honestly believe the GOP will accept the complete and utter repudiation of their party without scorching the earth beneath the feet of America's political system into blackened glass?

Me either.

So vote. Get your friends to vote. Drive people to the polls. Do whatever you can. I'm taking Monday and Tuesday off to do just that, knock, hit the call centers for Ohio across the river, the 72 hour bombardment, whatever it takes. I'm reporting bright and early Monday morning here in Cincy.

Run up the scoreboard. Prove the mandate of the people beyond any shadow of a doubt. Pray that BooMan's predictions of the Great Realignment are true, and that everything breaks Obama's way in a blue tsunami that utterly crushes and drowns the GOP.

Because the alternative is going to be five of nine old people deciding that everything we did in the last twelve months didn't matter and that millions of our votes didn't count.

Once more into the breach, dear friends. We have a job to do. We have to fight over the next two days to make sure this is won Tuesday.

Because the GOP is planning to start the real fight on Wednesday.

VOTE.

Poll-nographic Images

Much has been made by the Right of the Gallup "traditional estimate" poll, made using past esitmates of turnout models (the so called "likely voters") as opposed to the other polls using current turnout models ("registered voters").

Gallup in fact has two polls, one likely voters, one registered voters. The McSame camp was giddy as a schoolgirl when the likely voter poll showed Obama's lead had narrowed from 7 points to just two points in three days, from October 24 (51-44%) to October 27th (49-47%).

The McSame camp and the wingnuts assured America that young people and minorities were simply not going to vote this year, that the turnout was going to follow more traditional models, and that John McCain would be able to pull out a close upset victory if not be ahead by the final weekend and go on to win. It was important because Obama had fallen below 50%, and McSame was within the margin of error. The McSame camp predicted that therefore this proved the race was in fact a tossup.

Smug and assured, they laughed at Obama's half-hour ad buy and said it would backfire, doing more harm than good. It would be Obama being "uppity and presumptuous" again, adressing the nation with a "crass infomercial".

And since October 27th, since Obama's half-hour "closing argument" ad buy on Wednesday night, they expected John McSame to be in control heading into the final weekend before Tuesday's election. The trends were clear, and they believed in the "likely voter" model.

But, there's one small detail they forgot to factor in, you see. The McSame campaign has been much been 100% WRONG about everything.

For you see, Obama is now leading the Gallup likely voter poll by ten points.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) has taken the largest lead yet among likely voters against Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in the national Gallup poll released Saturday. Obama expanded his lead to ten percent from nine percent on Friday.

Obama's lead is a dramatic rise from the 49-47 percent margin that Gallup registered just four days ago.

Gallup added, "This is the first time since Gallup began estimating likely voters in early October that there is no difference between Gallup's two likely voter models. Obama's lead of 52% to 42% using Gallup's traditional estimate of likely voting criteria takes into account past voting as well as current intentions. Obama's identical lead using the expanded model takes into account only current voting intentions."

"Both of these likely voter estimates in turn are almost identical to Gallup's 52% to 41% registered voter estimate.

McSame had a chance if he stayed above 45 and Obama at 50. Now? Now he's in trouble. The dominoes are falling in the other direction. It greatly appears that Obama's ad buy may have in fact sealed the deal among undecided voters instead of hurting him.

We may have reached a tipping point here with less than 48 hours before polls open.

I'm Sorry, Mr. McSame Is No Longer At This Address

Et tu, Palin?

At a boisterous Sarah Palin rally in Polk City, Florida on Saturday afternoon, one name was surprisingly absent from the campaign décor — John McCain’s.

Looking around the Fantasy of Flight aircraft hangar where the rally took place, one could see all the usual reminders that it was a pro-McCain event. There were two large “Country First” banners hung on the walls along with four enormous American flags meant to conjure the campaign’s underlying patriotic theme. Many of the men and women in the audience wore McCain hats and t-shirts.

But on closer inspection, the GOP nominee’s name was literally nowhere to be found on any of the official campaign signage distributed to supporters at the event.

So, when will McSame be relegated to Viagra commercials like Bob Dole? McSame lost because he wasn't a hard-core wingnut like Palin, you see. That's now the official excuse.

The Sarah Palin 2012 campaign officially began today over John McSame's political corpse...three days before the 2008 election.

Citizens On Patrol

Want to serve the Peach State? Georgia's Republican Secretary of State wants YOU to help keep undesirable people from voting!

Add Georgia to the list of states where Republican officials are actively engaged in voter suppression efforts.

In the midst of a record turnout for early voting in Georgia, that has led to long lines, discouraged voters and exhausted poll workers, Secretary of State Karen Handel, a Republican, has claimed federal law ties her hands, preventing her from extending early voting hours.

With just days to go to the election, Democratic politicians demanded yesterday that Handel step in and extend early voting hours -- as has been done in both North Carolina and Florida.

But in an opinion piece published in the AJC on Thursday, Handel blamed her inaction on the issue on federal law which requires Justice Department approval to change voting law.

Ironically, it is Georgia's history of discriminatory voting practices that puts it on a federal "pre-clearance" list, mentioned in Section 5 of the Voter Rights Act of 1965.

While the DOJ can take up to 60 days to review any change that is submitted, it has the power to grant expedited review in emergency situations -- and Georgia's situation would certainly seem to qualify, Gerry Hebert, a former acting head of DOJ's voting-rights section, told TPMmuckraker.

"Georgia has asked and been granted expedited review by the DOJ in the past, so to say because of the voting act, we can't do this -- that's not really accurate," Hebert said. "The DOJ has done this in as little as 24 hours. . . so to use Section 5 as an excuse that this isn't possible, that's someone that really doesn't want to make the change."

But here's the best part:

As first noted by the blog, Facing South, in an interview Wednesday with the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Handel took pains to remind voters that any voter can challenge another's qualifications to cast a ballot by notifying a precinct poll manager. According to Handel, that voter then would be given a challenge ballot and would have to go before the election board.

How many folks will be disenfranchised in Georgia because of this, I'm wondering?

Remember folks, 600 votes was the difference in Florida in 2000.

Those 600 voters disenfranchised by Republican Secretary of State Katherine Harris were the difference between Bush and Gore.

The thousands of African-American voters in Ohio disenfranchised by Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell in 2004 were the difference between Bush and Kerry.

The efforts this year are far more insidious, vile, and widespread.

They will stop at nothing to win. Do not take your right to vote for granted, especially if you are a minority voter in an urban area.

Bring Me His Head On Dry Ice

Wow.



(h/t Steven D at the Frog Pond)

Just think on this. We had a President who was, in effect, an unaccountable warlord, ordering the decapitation of his enemies. The "leader of the free world" was a man every bit as barbaric as the worst Islamic jihadist. And McCain would continue those same policies which Bush put in place. He jokes about bombing Iran, as if the murder of innocent Iranian civilians would be not only an instance of acceptable, "collateral damage" but the height of hilarity.

The Republicans chose George Bush. And they chose John McCain to continue what Bush started. McCain, a so-called man of "honor" who has sullied his reputation forever by running an even nastier negative ad hominem attack campaign against his Democratic opponent, Barack Obama, than Bush and Karl Rove ran against John Kerry in 2004. I cannot imagine a more disgraceful act on Tuesday than to cast your ballot for John McCain, the nominee of a party who, while they controlled Congress, enabled the most corrupt, the most power mad, and the most barbaric President in our history.

As he says, this illustrates nicely why the current batch of neocons can never be allowed near the reins of power again. Ever.

Really Early November Surprise

The gang at TPM Muckracker have the goods on how the story on Obama's aunt came out a convenient three days before the election.

The leaking of information about the immigration status of Barack Obama's aunt appears to directly violate guidelines for confidentiality laid out in an Immigration and Customs Enforcement memo obtained by TPMmuckraker.

As we reported earlier, ICE has begun an internal probe into the leak to the Associated Press, which revealed early this morning that Obama's aunt "is in the United States illegally after an immigration judge rejected her request for asylum four years ago."

Surprise surprise! Somebody in a Bush-controlled Federal agency most likely leaked the story to help McSame in the last weekend before the election.

Still, from the available evidence, it appears ICE is the most likely source. And Dan Kowalski, a leading immigration law expert, told TPMmuckraker that there's "no question" the leak violated ICE's guidelines as laid out in the memo.

And he identified for TPMmuckraker some additional, pertinent questions, asking:

1. Did the leaker know it was a violation? 2. Was the leak politically motivated? 3. A solo action, or conspiracy of 2 or more? If the latter, who is the boss?

We'll be working to bring you answers...

Schmucks to the end.

How To Know When You're A Right Wing Douchebag:

You think a check into Joe The Plumber's background is a "chilling glimpse into the future" of an Obama administration, despite the fact you have no problem with President Bush wiretapping millions of Americans illegally.

You then think the same kind of check into Obama's Kenyan aunt living in Boston, revealing she's appealing her denial of asylum request, is perfectly fine and you see no problem with it.

This makes you a complete douchebag, Malkinvania.

That is all.