Monday, June 21, 2010

Last Call

And from our good friends the Israelis...
Israel should launch a pre-emptive strike to prevent arch-foe Iran from going nuclear, a former head of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency said on Monday.

"I am of the opinion that, since there is an ongoing war, since the threat is permanent, since the intention of the enemy in this case is to annihilate you, the right doctrine is one of pre-emption and not of retaliation," Shabtai Shavit told a conference.

Shavit, who served as chief of Israel's foreign spy agency from 1989 to 1996, was speaking at a conference held at the hawkish Bar Ilan University outside Tel Aviv.

"To use retaliation as the main strategy means to sit idly and wait until the enemy comes to attack you," a university statement quoted Shavit as saying.

"But we are dealing with an enemy that plans all the time and waits for the opportunity to arise in order to attack, so what is the point, even morally, to wait and do something only when we are attacked," he said.
Part of me honestly believes that Netanyahu's final trump card over Obama is this right here.  We get Israeli officials and former Israeli officials saying this whenever Obama decides to play hardball.  "Gee it would be a shame if we attacked Iran.  You'd be forced to fight our war for us.  Do you really want to do that?  Better think twice, then."

As long as doing whatever Israel wants has 85 US Senators supporting it, Obama knows Bibi doesn't have to hold all the cards.  He just has to be willing to play exactly one.

Law Enforcement, It Works

You know, instead of the Jack Bauer stuff.  Faisal Shahzad is completely copping to the Times Square bombing attempt.
Faisal Shahzad, the 30-year-old Pakistani-American suspect in the failed Times Square bombing case, entered pleas of guilty Monday in federal court to all 10 counts he was facing.

Shahzad, wearing a white skullcap, gray prison jumpsuit and orange T-shirt, was wearing handcuffs as he was escorted into the courtroom of U.S. District Judge Miriam Cedarbaum.

Before entering his pleas, he told the court: "I want to plead guilty 100 times because unless the United States pulls out of Afghanistan and Iraq, until they stop drone strikes in Somalia, Pakistan and Yemen and stop attacking Muslim lands, we will attack the United States and be out to get them."

Cedarbaum then placed Shahzad under oath and asked him questions about the crime.

A law enforcement source told CNN the decision to plead guilty was Shahzad's.

Shahzad is accused of attempting to set off the botched vehicle bomb in Times Square on May 1. He was arrested two days later while trying to leave the country on a flight from New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport.
No torture necessary, no years in Gitmo, no disappearing the guy, no waterboarding, no psy-ops crap, no predator drones, no cruise missiles, no Space Command, no memos trying to authorize enhanced interrogation, no Legion of Doom supervillainy and the guy's entering a guilty plea in less than 60 days. It's almost like the Obama administration knows what they are doing with basic law enforcement techniques.

Imagine that.  We can stop terrorists using detective work.  Now we can put this assclown behind bars where he belongs.

World Cupdate

The last day of the second round of matches opened up with Portugal at North Korea in Group G, and unlike nearly every other game in this Cup of Draws, the outcome of this match was never, ever in doubt.  Portugal's 3-3-4 offensive assault featuring Ronaldo, Almeida and Simao cracked North Korea's 1-2-2-5 bunker starting with Meireles at 29', and for a while the North Koreans held on.  But the second half was all the Seleccao das Quinas as they pummeled North Korea with SIX second half goals as their defense disintegrated totally and Portugal put North Korea out of its misery, eliminating them from the round of 16 in one of the most embarassing losses in modern World Cup history.  They came in an unknown, but they leave fully known: a massively exploitable weakness in the fullback and keeper position that a strong team can crack like an egg.  portugal played like Brazil should have, and for all intents and purposes North Korea should have a minus double digit goal differential by the end of their match with Ivory Coast.

Moving to Group H, it was Chile versus the surprising Swiss in match two as both teams were playing to assure an advance, as both teams posted 1-0 wins last week.  The Swiss were looking for another phenomenal upset as they did to Spain, but La Roja were having none of it and went 3-3-4 with Suazo, Beausejour, and Sanchez up top, versus an interesting Swiss 2-4-4 formation with Frei and Nkufo at point. Chilean tempers flew hot however and several bookings in the first half limited how aggressive La Roja could be, but then it was the Swiss right half Valon Behrani sent off with a red card at 30' as the referee clamped down on the game.  With a man up, Chile went on the assault again as the Swiss bunkered up.  The second half had what would have been an early Sanchez goal called back due to the offsides flag, and the Swiss were able to hold off the Chilean onslaught for a good long while, but at 75' Gonzalez off the bench finally headed one home, and that was enough to give La Roja the win as the one solid Swiss chance in stoppage time went wide of the net, and Chile takes the 1-0 win to lead the group.

That meant both Spain and Honduras needed wins to keep up in Group H, and to find the Spanish facing elimination at this point was a shocker indeed. La Furia Roja led off with a 2-4-4 front with David Villa and Fernando Torres at striker, while Honduras went with the popular 1-3-2-4 plan with David Suazo at point, to try to clog the middle and counter on the breaks.  La Furia Roja lived up to their name by exploding out of the gate and leading a barrage of shots early, one by Villa at 17' found the back of the net and Los Catrachos were suddenly facing a long, long night. The second half found Villa agin scoring at 51', and the rout was on.  Villa almost had the hat trick but actually missed a penalty kick at 62', and nearly scored again in stoppage, but Honduras never recovered.  Spain's 2-0 win sets up an intersting possibility where Spain beats Chile and the Swiss finish off Honduras, giving 3 teams 6 points and goals scored matter to see who will advance from Group H.

What Digby Said

On our old friend, Iowa GOP nutjob Steve King:
I'm hard on journalists, but sometimes a reporter writes something sublime and it deserves to be complimented.

This article appeared in the Denver Post about that that racist oddball Steve King coming to Denver for a 9-12 teabag rally after having been uninvited to two others. You just have to love the juxtoposition of the last two sentences:
King said he felt it was important to come to Colorado.
"I've been through all kinds of controversy, and I always have to ask myself, 'Did I say something that wasn't founded in truth?' No. 'Did I say something that hurt someone's feelings?' I don't think so."
King said Obama has misinformed the public about Arizona's law.
King said that under only one circumstance does he support amnesty for illegal immigrants: "Every time we give amnesty for an illegal alien, we deport a liberal."
Nancy Rumsfelt, who started the Loveland 9-12 group and organized the event, said the goal of the movement is to unite America the way it was immediately following the 2001 terrorist attacks.
Brilliant. Hats off to Bianca David of the Denver Post.
Yes, to unite America, to ignore liberals who said we were rushing to a pointless war, and then boom.  Sure, they want that zeitgeist again.

I'm curious however, does that also entail questioning the President being tantamount to treason like it was in in 2002 as well?

They're not even trying to disguise their disgust for those who don't agree with them anymore.  Now it's "deport liberals".

And The Meek Shall Inherit...Nothing? Part 2

Things are getting worse for Kendrick Meek in Florida...big time.  Josh Marshall:
We have another poll showing Charlie Crist in a solid lead over both Democrat Kendrick Meek and Republican Marco Rubio. This one is sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce and done by a GOP polling firm. And it shows Crist up by 11 over Rubio and by 28 over Meek. 
And it gets worse.


Clearly Crist is siphoning off Meek's support from Democratic voters, and Rubio is remaining rock stead at third of the vote.  You'd think Crist was the Dem and Meek was the independent.  Crist is certainly running like a Democrat right now and it's working.

Voters don't seem to be paying much attention to Crist's friend, former Florida GOP head Jim Greer.  Greer's in real trouble and it's hurting Rubio some too. The problem is they're not paying attention to Kendrick Meek either.  Crist is playing the anti-tea party backlash like a pro in Florida and it's all coming at the expense of Meek.

Will the Dems dare ask Meek to withdraw soon, especially if he gets under 10% in the polls?  The speed at which Meek is being thrown under the bus here is impressive, even for Florida politics.  But it looks like Dems are siding with Crist.

Warmed Up Leftovers

USA Today lets Dow Corning CEO Andrew Liveris pull out the stale old Bush/Club For Growth ideas to bring back US manufacturing jobs:  tax breaks for new technology, tax cuts for corporations, and deregulation, deregulation, deregulation.
America needs an integrated and strategic approach that will incentivize manufacturers to create the jobs of the future. The patchwork of incentives launched to address the recession has not turbo-charged the private sector growth engine of the world's largest economy. Many more permanent private-sector jobs are needed quickly. We face deep-rooted economic and policy headwinds that discourage good private job formation. These can be addressed through an "advanced manufacturing plan," if the U.S. is ever to prevail in global competition. We are playing with our children's future because if America gives up on manufacturing, we are surrendering their future to others.

We can either have the future we choose, or settle for the future we allowed.
Right, because tax cuts and deregulation, free trade agreements, and tort reform (yes, he throws that one in too) has done wonders for our economy and saved so many jobs over the last two decades.

Tell you what, Andy.  Go down to Venice, Louisiana, smell the oil coming off the water and see the damage to the wetlands there, and tell me right now what we need is corporate tax cuts, less regulation, and to limit lawsuits.

Idiots.

Let Them Eat Cake (Extra Crude Edition)

If you have any illusions what the big money people think about BP, let hedge fund maven Dennis Gartner illuminate you as to what us "little people" should be expecting.
Congressional questioning of BP CEO Tony Hayward was "amazingly idotic, repetitive and ill-mannered," said hedge fund manager Dennis Gartman, who is "embarrassed today for being American."

The author of The Gartman Letter, a daily investor guide, compared the questioning to the Spanish Inquisition and said Hayward—brought to Washington to defend his company's role in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill—conducted himself admirably despite the circumstances.

"And yet Mr. Hayward was made to remain before this commitee for hours yesterday, subjected to idiocy of the first order, expected to remain gentlemanly and in complete control...(despite)  hopes, apparently, that he'd make one slip of the tongue that would doom BP to a legal hell," Gartman wrote. "He did not. He kept his composure in a way we could not imagine that we could ever do under the same set of circumstances."
Hayward a hero resisting Obama.  Gartner "embarassed to be an American" for Congress asking BP's CEO what he plans to do about that massive oil geyser that will basically wipe out the Gulf Coast economy.  And guess who the only real Congressman on the Energy committee is?
And he praised Rep. Joe Barton (R-Texas) who came under fire for apologizing to Hayward after the administration strong-armed BP into putting up a $20 billion reserve fund for the spill cleanup.

"He was the only one on the committee with a sense of fair play, with a sense of honor and who was in fact embarrassed by what his fellow members of Congress were doing before the cameras yesterday," Gartman said. "We know nothing more about Mr. Barton but we know this: when others were taking the lowest road, he took the one much higher when the chips were down."
What a guy, that Barton.  Gartner's position?  Of course Congress should be apologizing to BP.  That should be their natural state.  How dare Obama think he's allowed to run this country or get BP to pay for the hundreds of thousands of folks directly affected by BP's catastrophic negligence.

It's a good thing we have hedge fund bazillionaires like Gartner here to defend America's most precious resource in the Gulf...oil companies!

Right?

For Better Or Worse

So at this point Mississippi GOP Gov. Haley Barbour is arguing that the six month deep water drilling moratorium is now worse than the oil geyser.

No, really.  Steve Benen:
As part of the federal response to the BP oil spill disaster, the administration imposed a six-month moratorium on drilling new deepwater wells. The point, of course, was to prevent another crisis -- Deepwater Horizon had undermined confidence in the industry and its practices. Before companies start new drilling, it's reasonable to make sure the industry's doing it right.

Conservatives, and some regional Democrats, are less than pleased about the six-month pause. Yesterday on "Meet the Press," Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) went so far as to argue that the moratorium is actually worse than the oil spill and its effects on the region. Seriously.

Host David Gregory specifically asked, "[W]hat's worse, the moratorium or the effects of this spill on the region?" Barbour replied, "Well, the moratorium. The skill -- the spill's a terrible thing, but the moratorium is a, is a terrible thing that's not only bad for the region, it's bad for America."
Oy.  Republicans will do anything to attack Obama over this, won't they?

Rahm-Go, Last Blood?

The UK Telegraph is reporting that White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is leaving at the end of the year.
Washington insiders say he will quit within six to eight months in frustration at their unwillingness to "bang heads together" to get policy pushed through. 
Mr Emanuel, 50, enjoys a good working relationship with Mr Obama but they are understood to have reached an understanding that differences over style mean he will serve only half the full four-year term.

Friends say he is also worried about burnout and losing touch with his young family due to the pressure of one of most high profile jobs in US politics.

"I would bet he will go after the midterms," said a leading Democratic consultant in Washington. "Nobody thinks it's working but they can't get rid of him – that would look awful. He needs the right sort of job to go to but the consensus is he'll go." 
Odd thing to drop to the press six months before going.  The White House's heavy hitter reduced to whining to the UK press?  I can understand this story coming out around Thanksgiving, but on late Father's Day weekend?  It's not like Rahm will get more respect from this.  The Village certainly is going to be damn miffed this one went to the Telegraph and not the Grey Lady or the WaPo.

No reason for Rahm to leak this.  He doesn't benefit unless he's trying to pre-martyr himself as the guy who could have saved the Democrats from big losses in November, but that's not his style, and it makes him look like an ass.

The Firebaggers are happy this morning.  The Wingers say its rats deserting a sinking ship of state.  But given the Village efforts to rehabilitate Rahm in February and again in March, I asked who was going to win that battle, the other combatants were the team of Obama budget guru David Axelrod and OFA campaign head David Plouffe.

Given this weekend's article on Team Obama fully backing Plouffe's OFA as the winning strategy for 2010, it looks like Rahm has immediately countered to...exact revenge?  That still makes no sense.  We'll hear nothing but WHITE HOUSE IN TOTAL DISARRAY for the next, oh, 30 months.

Not sure what Rahm's long game here is, and the Guardian article doesn't use Rahm as a source, but has "Washington insiders" saying they believe he will now leave and can totally understand why.

As I've said before the target's been Obama, and I think it's true again here.  Somebody's burning the White House and it's not Rahm.

StupidiNews!

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Last Call

BooMan has an excellent point here on the Next Firebagging:  the investment in OFA to get out the minority vote for midterm 2010 elections is going to certainly cause some friction.
The next intraparty controversy is going to be over the Democrats' decision to spend $50 million getting out the vote of those whose only vote ever was for Barack Obama in 2008. This is not what Rahm Emanuel would do. It is what David Plouffe is doing. Organizing for America, the grassroots, progressive wing of the Democratic National Committee, is getting all the love and attention they could want, and we should be ecstatic. But don't expect any love or approval from the white blogosphere, who will interpret this as an abandonment of traditional progressive groups.

This will unite the James Carville wing of the party with Jane Hamsher wing. 
Obama won in 2008 by empowering both the under-represented margins and convincing the middle to vote against the Republicans.  This is a smart move because any midterm election is always, always, always about turnout, turnout, turnout.  Getting even more of the people who voted for the first time for Obama to turn out for the Democrats again in 2010 is the way the Dems will maintain power.  Going after traditional midterm voters only is a losing proposition.  You need to motivate your side to go out and vote when they wouldn't ordinarily do so.

The cries of doom and gloom over this are already rising.
"I have zero confidence that they're heading in the right direction here," says one longtime Democratic organizer who didn't want to be quoted by name criticizing his party's major midterm election initiative. Added another: "I think they're going to come in for a very rude awakening. It's going to be brutal."

If that turns out to be the case, the doubters say, Democrats will wake up the morning of Nov. 3 wishing they had spent that $50 million on more traditional methods, like television ads, for reaching their base and persuading independents.
Of course the people running the party machinery think this is going to be bad.  Of course they think the only way to win is to tell progressives to screw off and accept it.  Yes, it's risky.  But the alternative is to play the GOP's game.

And that's a guaranteed loser.

The Circle Is Complete

Remember the first day of the spill when the estimates were like, 1,000 barrels a day and BP was silent?  That's because BP's own internal documents were throwing around numbers like 100,000 barrels of oil per day.
The document appears to estimate the highest potential flow of oil if key components of the well fail. The document does not indicate that the 100,000 barrels per day is BP's estimate of the actual amount flowing from the ruptured Gulf of Mexico well.

The document states, "If BOP (blowout preventer) and wellhead are removed and if we have incorrectly modeled the restrictions -- the rate could be as high as ~ 100,000 barrels per day up the casing or 55,000 barrels per day up the annulus (low probability worst cases)"

"This document raises very troubling questions about what BP knew and when they knew it," Markey said in a statement.

"It is clear that, from the beginning, BP has not been straightforward with the government or the American people about the true size of this spill. Now the families living and working in the Gulf are suffering from their incompetence," he added.
Gosh, key component failure like a catastrophic wellhead explosion where the blowout preventer does nothing?  To give you an idea, if this thing really is spewing that much oil into the Gulf, then we've already seen close to a quarter-billion gallons of oil spill into the Gulf, a number more than twenty times worse than Exxon Valdez.

The talk of what we need to do in the Gulf right now is not "How do we save the 2010 tourist season?" but "How do we deal with the permanent loss of Gulf Coast industries?"  Fishing, tourism, support for those workers, that's all gone, folks.  This is a game-ender for these states and their economies.  They are going to need a lot of government help, ironically, just to survive.  They are going to need entirely new industries down there to support people.

In short, they are going to need progressive solutions in red states.  The irony is almost as heartbreaking as the tragic demise of the Gulf and millions of people in the area are going to suffer.  We're going to see poverty in this region like nobody has seen in decades.

$20 billion will only be a drop in the bucket, too.  Not even sure $50 billion will cover it.  Not all the damage and claims and lost jobs.  Parts of the country will be in an economic depression because of this.  The only question in my mind is "Will this be enough to knock the entire country into a depression?"

Increasingly I'm leaning towards that answer being yes.

Carrier On My Wayward Son

Now this is an interesting bit of news from Zero Hedge.
Arabic newspaper Al-Quds al-Arabi reports that 12 American warships, among which one aircraft carrier, as well as one Israeli corvette, and possibly a submarine, have crossed the Suez Canal on their way to the Red Sea. Concurrently, thousands of Egyptian soldiers were deployed along the canal to protect the ships. The passage disrupted traffic into the manmade canal for the "longest time in years." The immediate destination of the fleet is unknown. According to Global Security, two other carriers are already deployed in the region, with the CVN-73 Washington in the western Pacific as of May 26, and the CVN-69 Eisenhower supporting operation Enduring Freedom as of May 22. It is unclear at first read what the third carrier group may be, but if this news, which was also confirmed by the Jerusalem Post and Haaretz, is correct, then the Debka report about a surge in aircraft activity in the Persian Gulf is well on its way to being confirmed. There has been no update on the three Israeli nuclear-armed subs that are believed to be operating off the coast of Iran currently. 
A third US carrier group in the Red Sea is not something that you just hide.  It's a freakin' carrier group. The question is what are we doing with it.
We have submitted a query to Hillary Clinton for confirmation, in advance of her meeting with Israel defense minister Ehud Barak, who flew in to the US on Saturday for meetings with the former first lady, as well as Robert Gates and Chairman of the JCS Mike Mullen. And yes, the Joint Chiefs of Staff don't really get involved in high level "diplomacy" all that often.

Update: it appears the Aircraft Carrier crossing the Suez is almost certainly CVN-75 Harry Truman, which until recently was in the Mediterranean according to Stratfor. According to Wikipedia, "the super carrier can accommodate approximately 80 aircraft." For some more curious information on the Truman, click here.
If the carrier is the Truman, then things are about to get interesting in a bad way out in Af-Pak, and don't think Iran hasn't noticed either.

World Cupdate

Group F action kicked off with Slovakia and Paraguay.  The South Americans have dominated this tournament as a whole so far and those wins have come at the expense of European squads for the most part, but a pair of 1-1 draws in the opener have left this group wide open.  Paraguay's modified 1-2-3-4 wedge with Lucas Ramon Barrios at the tip of the spear for the Albirroja versus the Repre's 1-3-2-4 with Jan Kozak at the front made for a solid match, but it was Paraguay's Vera who scored first at 27' off a brilliant assist from Barrios.  The Slovaks just didn't have any answers in the first half, and in the second they held off Paraguay's pressure and created a few opportunities, but it wasn't enough.  Eventually Cristian Riveros was able to get behind Slovakia's defense and put home the exclamation point at 86', and Paraguay won the match easily 2-0 as they controlled that game for all 90 minutes and took 5 solid shots to Slovakia's one in a workman-like match.

That meant Italy needed the win here against New Zealand to keep up with Paraguay.  Of the big six European squads, Italy, Germany, France, England, Spain, and the Netherlands, only the Dutch are playing well with two solid wins.  Still, the Azzurri opened strong with a 2-4-4 attack lead by Gilardino and Iaquinta, and the All-Whites played a defensive 1-5-4 formation with Shane Smeltz at point.  But an early free kick for New Zealand turned into a stunner as Smeltz melted behind the Italian D (somehow avoiding an offsides flag) and popped one in the back of the net at 7', and suddenly the defending 2006 World Cup champs were in serious danger of being sent home by New Zealand.  Italy poured on the pressure to equalize and that turned into a penalty kick by Iaquinta and a goal at 29'.  The second half was just sheer willpower by the All-Whites as despite Italy dominating in every offensive stat, they refused to give in to the Italian attack.  New Zealand had 2 shots to over a dozen for the Azzurri, and Italy had 14 corners to none for New Zealand, but in the end the only stat that mattered was one goal to one goal in one of the best matches of the Cup.

That brought us to Brazil versus Ivory Coast, and the Canarinhos were ready to make sure that nothing like New Zealand's draw happened as they struck out hard and early on a 2-4-4 attack formation with Robinho and Luis Fabiano up front, while Ivory Coast floated back on a 1-2-3-4 with 2 wide plan and their star, Didier Drogba, looking to be a hero again at point.  However, unlike the New Zealand game, the first half was slow and subdued, the only action coming when Fabiano boomed one in at 25'.  Ivory Coast and Drogba did go on the counter a number of times, picking up a number of brilliant crosses that gave him some solid shots, but the Brazilian defense was up to the job.  The second half, Brazil showed why they are the most feared team in the sport right now and they shifted into Samba King style, ripping the Elephants open with a second Fabiano goal at 50' and Kaka finding Elano at 62', and suddenly this match was over.  Drogba did get his goal at 79' on sheer willpower, but it was far too little and too late, and Brazil rolled to win 3-1, but not before Kaka picked up a red card on a really terrible call.  That may give Portugal a slight hope next week, but not by much.

In off-field news, both England and France are facing various player mutinies as there's a very good chance that neither team may advance to the round of 16.  With Italy, Spain, and Germany shocked in the first two matches as well, Europe's best hope remains the Dutch...and nobody expected to see Slovenia, the Swiss, and possibly even Serbia in the hunt too.

Good Cop, Bad Cop

Israel goes for the "we're totally reasonable!" card by relaxing some of the most arbitrary item bans in Gaza.
The new policy is a response to mounting calls to ease Israel's four-year siege on the impoverished enclave after Israeli forces killed nine activists during a May 31 raid on a flotilla of aid ships attempting to run the blockade.

"The Israeli government has today taken additional steps to further enable the flow of civilian goods to the civilian population of the Gaza Strip," said government spokesman Mark Regev.

"From now on, there is a green light approval for all goods to enter Gaza except for military items and materials that can strengthen Hamas's military machine," he said.

The decision was formally announced following a meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Middle East Quartet envoy Tony Blair, who has been spearheading discussions on easing the closures.

"The practical effect of this should change radically the flow of goods and material into Gaza," Blair said in a statement.

Israel will soon publish a list of banned items including "only weapons, material used in combat and problematic dual-use items. All goods not on the list will be allowed into Gaza," the government said in a statement.

It will also allow for the "expanded entry of dual-use building materiel" for projects authorised by the Western-backed Palestinian Authority with "international oversight."
Make no mistake, this is vitally needed in Gaza, but the arbitrary banning of civilian goods like newspapers and chickens were just that:  arbitrary punishment for Palestinians living in Gaza in order to get them to turn on Hamas.  It took a couple of years, but the Palestinians finally made it backfire on Israel with the world's attention drawn to the list of items that Israel would not allow in.

It doesn't hurt them at all to allow any of these items in now, and that was the plan all along.  Now Israel is "reasonable" and merciful.  And they'll play that angle for as long as they can continue to collectively punish Gaza.

Both the good cop and the bad cop are Israel.
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