Last Call For The Manchin On The Hill, Con't

President Joe Manchin has all but killed another Fed nominee, and it's back to the drawing board for Biden and company.

 

Sen. Joe Manchin, the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, said Monday that he opposes one of President Joe Biden's nominees to the Federal Reserve, leaving her candidacy to join the central bank with the slimmest of hopes.

"I have carefully reviewed Sarah Bloom Raskin's qualifications and previous public statements. Her previous public statements have failed to satisfactorily address my concerns about the critical importance of financing an all-of-the-above energy policy to meet our nation's critical energy needs," Manchin said in a statement.

"I have come to the conclusion that I am unable to support her nomination to serve as a member of the Federal Reserve Board," he added.

Manchin's formal opposition all but dooms Raskin's bid to be the Fed's next vice chair for supervision, one of the most powerful banking regulators in the world. While it's possible Raskin could garner support from a moderate Republican, a Senate split 50-50 means anything but a unified Democratic party makes the odds of success for any presidential nominee perilous at best.

"Sarah Bloom Raskin is one of the most qualified people to have ever been nominated for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors," a White House spokesperson told CNBC. "She has earned widespread support in the face of an unprecedented, baseless campaign led by oil and gas companies that sought to tarnish her distinguished career. We are working to line up the bipartisan support that she deserves, so that she can be confirmed by the Senate for this important position. "

Manchin, who last week said that his own party should advance Biden's four other Fed nominees without Raskin, has for weeks worked to support the U.S. energy industry as the prices of oil and gasoline climb thanks to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Biden has also nominated Jerome Powell to a second term as Fed chair, Lael Brainard as vice chair, and Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson as Fed governors.

 

Manchin is killing Raskin's nomination over her remarks that the US and the world will continue to have unstable economies as oil gets more expensive and climate change continues to wreck the planet. This is "too political" for her to be on the Fed, according to Manchin, and basically ever other Republican will go along with this.

It's possible that Romney or Collins might save this nomination, but not likely. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska certainly won't.

Joe Manchin continues to know when and how to hurt Biden, and he's done so expertly for the last 13 months.

Our Little White Supremacist Domestic Terrorism Problem, Con't

A week after I told you GOP Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar would get away with being featured speakers at last month's white supremacist domestic terrorism conference put together by known domestic terrorist Nick Fuentes, it seems that Ukraine has given the both of them cover to completely ditch what should be a career-ending scandal. Steve Benen:

For a brief moment, it appeared Republican Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar had pushed their luck. The pair were already recognized as two of Congress’ most radical members, but when they appeared at a white nationalist event nine days ago, it created a challenge for GOP leaders: Was the party prepared to do something?

A week ago this morning, the possibility of action seemed almost plausible. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told CNN and Punchbowl News that it was “appalling and wrong” for Gosar and Greene to attend the America First Political Action Conference (AFPAC).

“There’s no place in our party for any of this,” the House GOP leader said. “The party should not be associated any time, any place with somebody who is anti-Semitic.... This is unacceptable.” McCarthy added that he planned to discuss the “appalling“ matter with the right-wing duo.

 

Of course, your readers knew this was laughably wishful thinking.

A week later, there’s reason to believe Republican leaders are prepared to accept that which they saw as unacceptable. Politico reported this morning:

It’s not yet clear when Kevin McCarthy will have his promised conversation with two divisive House conservatives who spoke at a white nationalist event — and whenever he does, the talk likely won’t amount to much.... McCarthy’s office confirmed to POLITICO that he hasn’t yet spoken to the two but still plans to.

As we discussed last week, the party has some options. McCarthy & Co. could, for example, kick Gosar and Greene out of the GOP conference. The party could also announce that it will not support the members’ re-election campaigns — akin to what the party has already done to Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, because of their efforts to help lead the investigation into the Jan. 6 attack. Republicans could also agree to censure the duo.

The minority leader, who vowed in November to reward Greene and Gosar with new committee assignments in the next Congress, could even announce that he’s changed his mind about what he said four months ago, and he will no longer support giving Greene and Gosar committee assignments in the next Congress.

None of this has happened, and by all appearances, it seems unlikely that GOP leaders will do much of anything.

 

With Ukraine, inflation, and a new COVID variant loose in Europe, nobody cares about white supremacist Republicans being white supremacists.

It's been normalized with a big hand from both Trump and Putin.

In Which Zandar Answers Your Burning Questions

Axios's Alexi McCammond asks:

A big-time Maryland donor recently raised a lingering question in some corners of the Democratic Party: Can Black candidates run for and win statewide races?

 

The funny thing is that she answered her own question a few paragraphs down:

The questions come despite unprecedented representation by officeholders and candidates, from the vice president to members of Congress and mayors. 

A snapshot: There are 57 Black U.S. House members, the most ever; Black women are mayors of seven of the 100 most-populous cities; three Black candidates were among the primary contestants for the Virginia governor's race last year, and three are currently competing in Maryland Democratic gubernatorial primary.

 

So while Black gubernatorial candidates in Maryland, a pretty narrow subset of total Black candidates mind you, have lost races, it's not a national problem.

 

The question becomes why is Axios making it one?

 

Of course we have an answer to that too, published the same day: 

Top Democratic operatives see expanding defections by Hispanic voters to the GOP, worsening Democrats' outlook for November's midterms.

Why it matters: Democrats had hoped this might be a phenomenon specific to the Trump era. But new polling shows it accelerating, worrying party strategists about the top of the ticket in 2024.

A Wall Street Journal poll last week found that by 9 points, Hispanic voters said they'd back a Republican candidate for Congress over a Democrat. In November, the parties were tied.

What's happening: Democrats saw evidence of this shift in 2020 in House races in south Florida, Texas and southern New Mexico. 

Key factors, operatives say, include skepticism among Hispanic voters about programs they view as handouts. And many Hispanics are social conservatives, with what L.A. Times columnist Gustavo Arellano has called a "rancho libertarianism streak." The national party also needs to do better with messages that distinguish among Americans whose families hailed from Cuba, Mexico, Puerto Rico or Central America, several Democrats tell me.

Our thought bubble: Latinos, especially Mexican Americans, still lean Democratic. But Democrats have been losing ground among these voters in recent elections because the party hasn't been paying enough attention to them.

 

That's weird, that's the same exact reason why Democrats have "lost" white voters.  Not enough "attention" and Black candidates can't win even though they've won.

It's almost like Axios wants the Dems to lose.

Badly.

Now there's your burning question: why?

And we know why.

Last Call For The Convoy's Long Haul

 The conventional wisdom on "The People's Convoy" is that the event earlier this month was an unmitigated disaster, a rolling tire fire of a failure, and a cosmic joke that shows that the only people the far-right rabid Trumpies can ever really own are themselves.

But the vehicle convoy part was never the actual goal, it was the street fair aura of "come check us out" for Our Little White Supremacist Domestic Terrorism Problem™ and on that lone premise, it was one of the most successful recruiting events in the post-Capitol attack era, as UMBC history professor Terry Bouton reports.

It’s hard to take the "People’s Convoy" trucker caravan seriously. Starting as a protest against Covid mask and vaccine restrictions, it launched after most mandates had been lifted. Many of the convoy’s big rigs, pickups and SUVs are covered with QAnon conspiracy references. Convoy organizers promised to shut down Washington D.C. Instead, they parked their trucks at a stock-car racetrack in western Maryland and then did a few gaffe-filled laps around the D.C. Beltway. The convoy has been lampooned in late-night talk show monologues and newspaper op-eds, and parodied in countless memes. The consensus is that it has been a complete failure.

That’s the wrong conclusion. I spent four hours walking around the convoy’s Hagerstown, Maryland, encampment last Saturday. Make no mistake: the "People’s Convoy" has been a great success as a movement-building event for the far-right. And it should be taken seriously, despite its absurdities.

The far-right was well represented at the convoy. Members of white supremacist and anti-government groups that were at the center of the Capitol insurrection have been heavily involved in its planning. Erik Rohde, a national leader of Three Percenters, was a “consultant” to the "People’s Convoy." (In return the "People’s Convoy" official Telegram account urged supporters to donate to a protest march on the Washington state capitol that Rohde was organizing). Three Percenter and Proud Boy Telegram channels have organized support and raised money for the "People’s Convoy." In Wisconsin, convoy organizers called on the Oath Keepers to provide security.

When I visited the Hagerstown encampment, numerous people wore Proud Boys sweatshirts or had Three Percenter patches on their jackets. I was told that other members of both groups were there in street clothes. One guy I spoke to claimed to have entered the Capitol on Jan. 6.

The Hagerstown encampment soft-pedaled the hate and the convoy’s far-right ties, camouflaging them in a carnival-like atmosphere that drew thousands of people from the surrounding region. Entire families turned out to see the trucks and walk around the giant Speedway parking lot. There was free food and drinks, DJs, a band, quality fireworks, a ceremony with headlights and giant flags. Drivers let kids pull their horns, rev their engines and sign trucks with Sharpies. There was even funnel cake.

The convoy’s entire journey has had a similar festive feel, drawing large crowds across the heartland. People flocked to overpasses to hold signs and wave as the convoys passed. Homeschooling mothers brought their kids as part of civics lessons. Convoy stops were often mobbed with visitors and were inundated with food and drink donations.

Meanwhile, membership in dozens of public and private Convoy Facebook groups and Telegram channels has exploded. Convoy drivers upload reports, sometimes with videos shot as their trucks pass cheering crowds. Supporters post pictures and video taken from overpasses and roadsides along the route. Most people just write messages of support and thanks.

This is how social movements are built. The glue that binds people together is events just like the convoy, where strangers unite through a shared sense of belonging and purpose. They reinforce commitments and forge new bonds as people talk, share contact information, network and recruit. The man I spoke to who claimed to have entered the Capitol became emotional just talking about the convoy’s arrival in Hagerstown, comparing it to a joyous July Fourth parade.

Politicians on the right have also been moved — at least enough to get their pictures taken with the truckers. Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita spoke at a large convoy rally. The main convoy organizers met with members of Congress and Sens. Ted Cruz and Ron Johnson. Cruz later went to the Hagerstown Speedway, flanked by national media, and rode in the passenger seat of the lead truck, giving convoy organizers exactly the media win they wanted.

 

And I know the first thing I'll see in the comments is "stop giving these assholes credit by pushing their propaganda, they didn't recruit anyone" to which I reply "You're not the Black guy in Kentucky who removed his Biden magnet from his car the day he won, either."

 

They're not going to be a danger to most folks right off the bat. It's always folks like me who have to deal with the first wave of movements like this, and having seen this coming in 2015 when Matt Bevin won here in KY and it only getting worse from there, I can tell you this feels like 2015 all over again.

 

Liberals weren't the target audience. Never Trump Republicans and independents were, and on that point, it brought some into the extremist fold.

 

That's not a good thing.

 

 

 

Factory Fresh Tuckerganda

FOX News polyp Tucker Carlson isn't just the most watched cable TV fish in America, he's apparently very popular in Russia these days, too, as Mother Jones reporter David Corn informs us, especially with Russia's psy-ops and disinformation mavens.

On March 3, as Russian military forces bombed Ukrainian cities as part of Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of his neighbor, the Kremlin sent out talking points to state-friendly media outlets with a request: Use more Tucker Carlson.

“It is essential to use as much as possible fragments of broadcasts of the popular Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who sharply criticizes the actions of the United States [and] NATO, their negative role in unleashing the conflict in Ukraine, [and] the defiantly provocative behavior from the leadership of the Western countries and NATO towards the Russian Federation and towards President Putin, personally,” advises the 12-page document written in Russian. It sums up Carlson’s position: “Russia is only protecting its interests and security.” The memo includes a quote from Carlson: “And how would the US behave if such a situation developed in neighboring Mexico or Canada?”

The document—titled “For Media and Commentators (recommendations for coverage of events as of 03.03)”—was produced, according to its metadata, at a Russian government agency called the Department of Information and Telecommunications Support, which is part of the Russian security apparatus. It was provided to Mother Jones by a contributor to a national Russian media outlet who asked not to be identified. The source said memos like this one have been regularly sent by Putin’s administration to media organizations during the war. Independent media outlets in Russia have been forced to shut down since the start of the conflict.

The March 3 document opens with top-line themes the Kremlin wanted Russian media to spread: The Russian invasion is “preventing the possibility of nuclear strikes on its territory”; Ukraine has a history of nationalism (that presumably threatens Russia); the Russian military operation is proceeding as planned; Putin is protecting all Russians; the “losing” Ukrainian army is shelling residential areas of eastern Ukraine controlled by Russia; foreign mercenaries are arriving in Ukraine; Europe “is facing more and more problems” because of its own sanctions; and there will be “danger and possible legal consequences” for those in Russia who protest the war. The document notes that it is “necessary to continue quoting” Putin. It claims that the “hysteria of the West had reached the inexplicable level” of people calling for killing dogs and cats from Russia and asks, “Today they call for the killing of animals from Russia. Tomorrow, will they call for killing people from Russia?”

A section headlined “Victory in Information War” tells Russian journalists to push these specific points: The Ukrainian military is beginning to collapse; the Kyiv government is guilty of “war crimes”; and Moscow is the target of a “massive Western anti-Russian propaganda” operation. It states that Russian media should raise questions about Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s state of mind and suggest he is not truly in charge of Ukraine. And it encourages these outlets to “broadcast messages” highlighting the law recently passed by the Russia Duma that makes it a crime to impede the war effort or disseminate what the government deems “false” information about the war, punishable for up to 15 years in prison. This portion instructs Russian journalists to emphasize that these penalties apply to anyone who promotes news about Ukrainian military victories or Russian attacks on civilian targets.

This is the section of the memo that calls on Russian media to make as much use as possible of Tucker Carlson’s broadcasts. No other Western journalist is referenced in the memo.

 

Now I'm betting this landed in the inbox of Carlson's bosses, and they told him to knock it off, explaining his recent shift from "Putin is great" to "Putin is terrible but so is Ukraine". 

Of course, it also explains him blaming everything on Joe Biden, too.

Sunday Long Read: Racking Up The Points

Jackson Hole, Wyoming is famous as a ski resort town and home of the Fed's yearly symposium where the government's central bankers hang out with the richest people in the country to talk shop, but there are other attractions to the storied town, namely the National Elk Refuge. The sanctuary serves as a gold mine every spring when the elk bulls shed their antlers, and a new type of hunter emerges on to public lands around the sanctuary looking to really rack up in this week's Sunday Long Read from the New Yorker's Abe Streep.

On the National Elk Refuge, only the staff and local Boy Scouts are permitted to collect antlers, which are sold in an annual auction. But though the elk may eat the refuge’s alfalfa, they don’t have much use for arbitrary jurisdictional boundaries, so they frequently wander onto adjacent public lands, which are managed by the U.S. Forest Service. Each year, on the first of May, those lands open to shed hunters. “You get to put your hands on something no one else has ever touched,” a shed hunter from Minnesota told me. “And then you get to take it home!”

The May hunt is feverish, and occasionally dangerous. It used to begin at midnight, but in 2015 a shed hunter on horseback tried to cross a river and was swept away. The man survived, but the horse drowned. The derby’s start has since been amended to 6 a.m.

On April 30, 2021, shed hunters began arriving in southwest Jackson, at the Teton County Fairgrounds, a designated waiting area twenty-five minutes from where the hunt would take place. They drove trucks with window stickers that said “rise and shed” and “shed life”; some hauled horse trailers. Many of them were locals, while others had come from Utah and Idaho, New York and Wisconsin. Nearly all of them were men, a good number of whom were dressed in camouflage—an unnecessary choice, given that antlers don’t run. But many shed hunters are also proud hunters, and the physical demands of the two sports are similar: both can require endurance in rough, mountainous terrain. Amid thick deadfall in the high country, every root and bleached cow femur can resemble an antler. Some shed hunters use trained dogs; others rely on expensive optics. That afternoon, workers from a cheese-processing plant in Utah played with a spotting scope—a device that can detect sheds from hundreds of yards away. Nearby, a coed group from Kansas was huddled around a pickup truck, where a twenty-seven-year-old Pfizer employee was holding court. He told his friends that he had run more than seven hundred miles in the past nine months to prepare for antler season.

As night approached, people drank beer and prepared to sleep in their cars. Early the next morning, police officers began escorting vehicles to the east end of town, where the road turned to dirt. The cars sped off, dust and headlights creating eerie weather. A man led his horse, yelling, “He’s gonna go like a son of a bitch!” Many of the hunters headed for Flat Creek, a stream running through hills. They raced across the water and ascended into tawny meadows. One rider was bucked off his horse and injured himself. A teen-ager from Montana alleged that someone stole an antler he had spotted first. One of the shed hunters from Kansas saw a bull elk running full tilt, its tongue lolling. “I felt bad for him,” she said later. “You could tell that he’d been pushed by all these people.”

Back on the road, more vehicles kept arriving until the parking line was half a mile long. A few riders returned from the hills, their horses hauling dozens of antlers. Near a red pickup truck with Wyoming plates, a young man was standing by the head of a dead bull. The man, who said that his name was McKay, had found the bull’s carcass in the creek and decapitated it with a knife. “I got lucky,” he said. The bull’s antlers were crooked, or nontypical, which potentially made them more valuable than a normal set—they could be worth several thousand dollars. But he couldn’t leave his trophy unguarded, meaning that his day was essentially finished. “It’s over already,” he said, glumly. “It’s too bad.”

There are more than a million wild elk in North America, mostly clustered throughout the western United States and Canada. Bulls that live in forests of cedar and fir, like those in northwest Montana or in the Canadian Rockies, often color their antlers with deeper shades than those in, say, the deserts of southern Nevada. Elk wandering through old burns can rub against char-covered trees until their antlers are nearly black. Roosevelt elk and tule elk, subspecies found in Oregon and California, respectively, have shorter antlers than Rocky Mountain elk. Nontypical antlers can result from genetics or trauma; an injury to a right rear leg can result in a warped left antler, a discovery that has mystified biologists. “They’re like snowflakes,” Kevin Monteith, a wildlife biologist at the University of Wyoming, said of antlers. “Every one is unique.”

It's certainly better than poaching and killing the elk, but it still can be dangerous. Still, this is a pretty wild story, as there's a whole pile of green to be made on May 1.

Big Chuck's Big Week

As I said earlier this week, I give Democratic Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer a lot of crap about two things in particular: not getting things passed and looking like an idiot, and not bragging about the things he does get passed. Apparently I'm not the only one, because this week Chuck is on a roll.

Passed by the Senate this week:

Emmett Till Antilynching Act

Postal Service Reform Act

The Budget Agreement

Aid to Ukraine

The Reauthorized Violence Against Women Act

— Chuck Schumer (@SenSchumer) March 11, 2022

Well now. This has been a list of badly needed legislation for over a year now, and Chuck cleans it up in a week.

The problem remains though that without a comprehensive voting rights bill, a bill to protect abortion as health care, and the provisions of Build Back Better, very little of this will matter in the future.

We need more of this, Democrats.

A lot more of this.

Ukraine In The Membrane, Con't

We've definitely reached the "Assad regime chemical weapons" phase of the Ukraine invasion, and it's here that things get ugly within hours if they go wrong.

The United States and its allies have intelligence that Russia may be preparing to use chemical weapons against Ukraine, U.S. and European officials said Friday, as Moscow sought to invigorate its faltering military offensive through increasingly brutal assaults across multiple Ukrainian cities.

Security officials and diplomats said the intelligence, which they declined to detail, pointed to possible preparations by Russia for deploying chemical munitions, and warned the Kremlin may seek to carry out a “false-flag” attack that attempts to pin the blame on Ukrainians, or perhaps Western governments. The officials, like others quoted in this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the matter.

The accusations surfaced as Russia repeated claims that the United States and Ukraine were operating secret biological weapons labs in Eastern Europe — an allegation that the Biden administration dismissed as “total nonsense” and “outright lies.”

Any use of poison gases in Ukraine would violate a decades-old international treaty banning such weapons, and represent a dangerous turn in Russia’s two-week-old military offensive against its neighbor. Russia, which possessed vast stocks of chemical and biological weapons during the Cold War, has used outlawed nerve agents in at least two assassination attempts against political foes of President Vladimir Putin in the past three years, including at least once outside its borders, Western intelligence agencies concluded.

Because the U.S. and European officials declined to describe the nature of the intelligence pointing to a possible Russian chemical attack in Ukraine, it was impossible to determine how significant it might be. U.S. officials have been warning publicly for days that Russia might carry out a false flag operation, after the Kremlin alleged the United States had supported a bioweapons program in Ukraine.

“It’s more than an urgent concern,” one European official said of the prospects for a Russian chemical attack. “Clearly there’s been an increase in the threat.”

A senior NATO official added that Russia “is preparing the ground for a chemical or bioweapons attack.”

 

Now, I'd be remiss in saying that over the last 20 years that the Washington Post (and the NY Times) haven't always been the most reliable sources of intel when it comes to enemies of America using NBC (nuclear, biological, chemical) weapons. I can't help but think of the late Colin Powell's UN presentation about Saddam's "mobile chemical labs" in Iraq, which was 100% bullshit and that the world took seriously when it was made up out of whole cloth.

On the other hand, we have seen somebody willing to absolutely use chemical weapons on his own people before, and that's Syria's Bashar al-Assad. After 11 years, he's still very much in charge of the country, and it's because he got help in flattening any resistance from...Vladimir Putin.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin first launched airstrikes inside Syria in fall 2015, the Syrian conflict was in its fifth year. Armed rebels, who opposed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal crackdown on civilians, were gaining ground; ISIS was on the rise; and Assad had acknowledged his army was on the retreat.

Russia had said its military was targeting ISIS and other terrorist groups. But in the days, months and years to come, Russian airpower reportedly exacted a stark toll on Syrian civilians. Putin’s military intervention — including aiding his ally Assad in besieging opposition-held areas of Aleppo and bombing hospitals, ultimately helped Assad regain territory and stay in power.

Now civilians in Ukraine are coming under Russian bombardment, with hospitals reportedly in the line of fire, according to Ukrainian officials. The New York Times has described “indiscriminate slaughter by an invading Russian army that has increasingly targeted heavily populated civilian areas.”

“You look at the bombing of Kyiv today, or Kharkiv, and it echoes the destruction of Aleppo that was carried out by Russian forces under the direction of Vladimir Putin,” The New Yorker staff writer Susan Glasser told FRONTLINE in an interview with producer Mike Wiser for the upcoming documentary Putin’s Road to War.

 

The parallels are too big to ignore. Assad too warned that the people he was fighting were going to use chemical weapons, and hey, chemical weapons certainly got used...by Assad. 

In this case, yeah, I actually believe the Post.

But It's For The Children, Con't

And now the court battle over Texas Gov. Greg Abbott's order to track down trans kids and their families like dogs and round their parents up for "child abuse", as a state court has halted the order as unconstitutional.

 

Investigations of parents with transgender children for possible child abuse were temporarily halted across Texas on Friday after a state court ruled that the policy, ordered last month by Gov. Greg Abbott, had been improperly adopted and violated the State Constitution.

The injunction, issued by Judge Amy Clark Meachum in Travis County, stemmed from a legal challenge by the parents of a 16-year-old transgender girl. Her family was among the first to be investigated by the state’s Department of Family and Protective Services under Mr. Abbott’s order, which directed state officials to consider medically accepted treatments for transgender youth — including hormones and puberty-suppressing drugs — as abuse.

In issuing the ruling, which came after a day of testimony, Judge Meachum said the governor’s actions, and those of the agency, “violate separation of powers by impermissibly encroaching into the legislative domain.” She said there was a “substantial likelihood” that plaintiffs would prevail after a trial on the merits because the governor’s order was “unconstitutional.”

The ruling applied to all investigations initiated across Texas under Mr. Abbott’s order, which the court said could no longer be enforced pending a trial on the issue, set for July.


Though it was not clear how many inquiries had already been initiated, several parents of transgender children had come forward in recent weeks to say they had been contacted by officials from the state agency about the treatment their children had received. A spokeswoman for the department did not respond to a request for comment.

Judge Meachum last week temporarily halted the investigation of the family, which was named only as John, Jane and Mary Doe in court papers, but had left the question of the policy’s broader legality open until the hearing.

“The judge understood loud and clear the harms being experienced by families like Jane Doe’s,” said Karen Loewy, senior counsel at Lambda Legal, which represented the plaintiffs along with the American Civil Liberties Union. “She heard also loud and clear that this was an unauthorized action by the governor,” she added, “unilaterally changing the way that child abuse is interpreted.”

The state immediately appealed the decision.

 

So, victory for now, sparing Texas trans children and their parents from the genital police, but don't expect the reprieve to last for long. Abbott and AG Ken Paxton will find the necessary appellate judges to rubber stamp his gestapo, and if the appeals court won't do it, the state supreme court almost certainly will. 

Add another front on the battlefield as Republicans try to criminalize and crucify anyone who isn't like them.

Last Call For Ukraine In The Membrane, Con't

Kyiv has survived another week, while Vladimir Putin's credibility has not. The bigger problem is that Putin seems bound and determined to commit enough war crimes to force a direct military confrontation with NATO and the US, which would be catastrophic for the globe in any conceivable scenario.

The United Nations human rights office has received “credible reports” that Russian forces are using cluster munitions in Ukraine, including in populated areas which is prohibited under international humanitarian law, the U.N. political chief said Friday.

Undersecretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo told a U.N. Security Council meeting that residential areas and civilian infrastructure are being shelled in Mariupol, Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv and “the utter devastation being visited on these cities is horrific.”

Most of the civilian casualties recorded by the U.N. human rights office — 564 killed and 982 injured as of Thursday — “have been caused by explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including heavy artillery and multi-launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes,” she said.

“Indiscriminate attacks, including those using cluster munitions, which are of a nature to strike military objectives and civilians or civilian objects without distinction, are prohibited under international humanitarian law,” DiCarlo said. “Directing attacks against civilian and civilian objects, as well as so-called area bombardment in towns and villages, are also prohibited under international law and may amount to war crimes.”

As of Thursday the U.N. World Health Organization has verified 26 attacks on health facilities, health workers and ambulances, including the bombing of the Mariupol maternity hospital, which caused 12 deaths and 34 injuries, DiCarlo said.

All alleged violations of international humanitarian law must be investigated and those found responsible must be held accountable, she said.

DiCarlo stressed that “the need for negotiations to stop the war in Ukraine could not be more urgent.”

Footage recorded on the outskirts of Kyiv by Radio Free Europe on Wednesday shows Ukrainian soldiers with rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers slung over their shoulders traversing snow-dusted fields and woods and expressing disdain toward the Russians.

One unidentified soldier called their adversaries “orcs,” a reference to the monstrous and malevolent foot soldiers in the “Lord of the Rings” series.

Another soldier said they planned to kill all their enemies over the bombing of Mariupol.

“We’ll multiply them by zero,” the unidentified soldier said.

Gunfire and explosions erupt during the 3-minute, 30-second clip. At one point in the woods, shots split the air near the group, and soldiers drop to their stomachs in an instant and return fire. The assailants are not visible in the clip, but the crack-crack-crack from the gunfire exchange carries on for 15 seconds in one part of the clip.

The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court has opened an online portal to gather evidence of war crimes in Ukraine, as he renewed his call to combatants to abide by the laws of war.

 

The problem of course is that Putin can tell both the ICC and the UN to go to hell and already basically have done so.  Pulling out Assad's playbook in Syria, the choice is going to be accept Putin's control of Ukraine or direct military conflict with NATO, which President Biden has already said would lead to World War III.

President Biden on Friday stressed that the U.S. and NATO allies would not fight Russia in Ukraine, describing such a scenario as "World War III."

"We’re going to continue to stand together with our allies in Europe and send an unmistakable message. We will defend every single inch of NATO territory with the full might of the united and galvanized NATO," Biden said after announcing additional sanctions on Russia. "We will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine. Direct conflict between NATO and Russia is World War III, something we must strive to prevent."

The president's comments were his starkest warning yet as some experts and journalists have asked what type of Russian escalation might trigger a U.S. military response.

Some lawmakers have pushed for establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, something White House officials have ruled out because it would involve U.S. and allied forces potentially shooting down Russian planes in Ukrainian airspace.

And multiple reporters have asked in recent days whether the use of chemical weapons by Russia would trigger a U.S. military response.

 

Things are getting worse In Ukraine, and they could go to hell very quickly if this spirals out of control.  On the other hand, nobody is more aware of this than Ukrainian President Zelenskiy himself, and at this point we have to keep in mind that he has now dropped the idea of NATO membership.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he had "cooled down" about Ukraine's bid to join NATO amid Russia's war with the Eastern European country.

"Regarding NATO, I have cooled down regarding this question long ago after we understood that NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine," Zelensky told ABC News in an exclusive interview that aired Monday night.

Zelensky added: "The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. I never wanted to be a country which is begging something on its knees. We are not going to be that country, and I don't want to be that president."

Ukraine's pursuit of NATO membership has been cited by Russian President Vladimir Putin as a justification for his decision to invade Ukraine.

 

We knew from the start that NATO membership for Ukraine now would mean WW III.  It was never happening. What does happen now depends on if there are any realistic military plans to push Russian troops out of Ukraine with materiel and equipment from NATO through Poland.

All bets are off and have been for two weeks.

Orange Meltdown, Con't

The Guardian's Peter Stone assures us that criminal charges against Donald Trump are more likely than ever.

The likelihood of a criminal investigation and charges against Donald Trump are rising due to allegations by a House panel of a “criminal conspiracy” involving his aggressive drive to overturn the 2020 election results, coupled with a justice department (DoJ) inquiry of a “false electors” scheme Trump loyalists devised to block Joe Biden’s election.

Former federal prosecutors say evidence is mounting of criminal conduct by Trump that may yield charges against the ex- president for obstructing an official proceeding of Congress on 6 January or defrauding the US government, stemming from his weeks-long drive with top allies to thwart Biden’s election by pushing false claims of fraud.

A 2 March court filing by the House January 6 panel implicated Trump in a “criminal conspiracy” to block Congress from certifying Biden’s win, and Trump faces legal threats from justice department investigations under way into a “false electors” ploy, and seditious conspiracy charges filed against Oath Keepers who attacked the Capitol, say department veterans.

The filing by the House panel investigating the 6 January assault on the Capitol by a mob of pro-Trump supporters stated that it has “a good-faith basis for concluding that the president and members of his campaign engaged in a criminal conspiracy to defraud the United States”.

The panel’s hard-hitting findings about Trump’s criminal schemes were contained in a federal court filing involving top Trump lawyer John Eastman, who has fought on attorney client privilege grounds turning over a large cache of documents including emails sought by the committee.

Back in January, the deputy attorney general, Lisa Monaco, also revealed a criminal investigation was being launched into a far reaching scheme in seven states that Biden won which was reportedly overseen by Trump’s ex-lawyer Rudy Giuliani to replace legitimate electors with false ones pledged to Trump.

But the House panel’s blockbuster allegations that Trump broke laws to overturn the election have prompted some ex-prosecutors to call on the justice department to quickly accelerate its investigations to focus on the multiple avenues that Trump used to nullify the election results in tandem with top allies like Giuliani.

“The compelling evidence of criminal activity by Trump revealed by the committee in its recent 61-page court filing should spur DoJ to act expeditiously,” Paul Pelletier, a former acting chief of DoJ’s fraud section, told the Guardian.

“Given the gravity of the revelations, the department should consider a strike force or even a special counsel to coalesce sufficient resources to focus on these criminal attacks that strike at the heart of our democracy,” Pelletier added. “There is no time to waste now that the House committee has provided the clearest view yet into how Trump and his campaign apparently schemed to upend our democracy.”

 

And now, some ice cold reality from former federal prosecutor Michael J. Stern.

I get why people are angry; I count myself among them. It’s fair to say that any ordinary citizen who committed similar offenses would have been swiftly indicted by the Justice Department. Want proof? Look at the 750 Capitol rioters who have already been arrested. They are minions compared to the man who instigated the attack and on whose behalf they acted — the man the House Select Committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot recently referred to as a member of a “criminal conspiracy.”

But, having worked as both a state and federal prosecutor and as a defense attorney, I know that there are Justice Department considerations in play beyond a simple analysis of whether there is sufficient evidence to indict Trump on criminal violations.

Every competent prosecutor knows why Garland and the Department of Justice have not indicted Trump. I’m going to say it out loud.

If Trump were charged, it’s unlikely he would negotiate a plea deal. Instead, he would go to trial and make every step of the process a platform to cast himself as a victim of a vindictive Biden administration. He would use the renewed attention to spew lies about the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election. And he would raise money, lots of money, to fund his anticipated 2024 presidential campaign.

But most important, despite a mountain of evidence that would convict most people many times over, Trump would not be convicted. Criminal convictions require a unanimous verdict. On a 12-person jury, there are going to be Trump supporters.

The Republican National Committee recently proclaimed that the people responsible for the violent attack on the U.S. Capitol were engaged in “legitimate political discourse.” Members of Congress, right-leaning media, and much of the Republican base consider the Capitol rioters patriots.

And so, it is a near certainty that at least one juror would accept the widely held Republican position that any prosecution of Trump is political persecution. That would all but ensure a hung jury in any case brought against him. Such a circumstance would have ramifications far beyond the prosecution of Trump.

Ninety-eight percent of federal cases are resolved short of a trial — mostly by guilty pleas. The federal court system would be crippled if many more defendants started exercising their right to a jury trial.

Pulling back the curtain to reveal a Justice Department incapable of convicting the former president, despite overwhelming evidence, would be a disaster for DOJ. It could lead to defendants across the country taking their shot, hoping they too could convince at least one juror to hang their case. Garland and DOJ attorneys know this and must be terrified at the prospect.

 

Trump will never be charged with federal, criminal indictments.  Period.

No jury would convict, and any who would? They'd be targets for life. Jury info would be leaked the second a guilty verdict came down, and it would be open season.

I understand that if Trump doesn't pay, all of us will. But the cost of chaos, murder, and destruction a guilty verdict would raise?

We're not ready for it as a country, and we never will be.

 

 

The Yacht Rocked World Tour '22

The internet does love its schadenfreude and it loves seeing the ridiculously wealthy lose their multi-million dollar toys because they've been bad even more, so it's no surprise then that online wealth watchers are getting hooked on the newest net comedy: Sanctioned Russian Oligarchs Get Their Yachts Seized By Cops.

There’s just something satisfying about watching online as a billionaire’s luxury yacht moves around the globe — and then gets snagged by law enforcement as part of sanctions designed to crack down on Russia.

Alex Finley thinks of it as schadenfreude, or getting pleasure from another’s troubles. Finley, an author and former CIA officer, is online tweeting names, locations, ownership and the latest status of various yachts owned by Russian oligarchs.

Seeing the yachts being seized feels like a “little bit of justice,” Finley said.

She’s part of a growing group of online spectators watching and reporting as governments around the world seize Russian oligarchs’ assets as part of sanctions for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While money can often be hidden and moved between offshore bank accounts, it’s trickier to conceal a 511-foot megayacht with an indoor pool, multiple helipads and a tracking system.

Using automated Twitter accounts, online tracking sites and homemade bingo cards, casual fans of financial retribution are following the location of the oligarchs’ ships and jets, often hoping to catch them on the run or docked in a country likely to seize them. Social media accounts have sprung up to follow the movements of these luxurious vehicles and keep track of which ones have been frozen or taken into possession by governments.

They use sites like VesselFinder, MarineTraffic or SuperYachtFan where you can type in a ship’s name or unique identifiers, known as an International Maritime Organization (IMO) number or Maritime Mobile Service Identity (MMSI). Thanks to similar satellite-based tracking technology, oligarchs’ private jet locations can also be tracked online through sites like Flightradar24.com. It’s not just location information. Some of the more expensive and well known yachts have their own Wikipedia pages and online followings, where details about their most over-the-top features are documented.

The Russian billionaires became the new object of fascination after the White House and European Union moved to sanction dozens of individual oligarchs and their associates as part of the larger Western crackdown on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

“The United States and governments all over the world will work to identify and freeze the assets Russian elites and their family members hold in our respective jurisdictions — their yachts, luxury apartments, money, and other ill-gotten gains,” according to the White House in a March 3 statement.

Yacht watchers have already witnessed a number of seizures. Italian financial police seized the superyacht Lena and another named Lady M, belonging respectively to Russian oligarchs Gennady Timchenko and Alexei Mordashov, according to the Associated Press. VesselFinder showed both on its maps recently, docked in Italian ports.

Late last week, the French Finance Ministry announced on Twitter it had seized a 281-foot-long superyacht worth $120 million that belonged to Russian oligarch Igor Sechin, the CEO of oil giant Rosneft. Called the Amore Vero, that ship’s recent locations were not as easy to find on tracking sites.

Yachts are not always required by law to share their location, though they typically do so for safety. However, some may turn off their automated tracking system if they want to sail under the radar.

“Whether a yacht has a duty to keep its AIS device on under international law or the domestic laws of its flag just depends on the size of the yacht, her flag, and where the yacht is located,” R. Isaak Hurst, an attorney at the International Maritime Group, said in an email.

The Russian-owned megayachts have become a clear object that people can focus their anger and attention on, yacht tracking fans say.

“There’s a symbolic power that the yacht holds in the West’s campaign to rein in the power of Vladimir Putin and his global kleptocracy,” said Oliver Houston, a political campaigner and writer from London. Houston has been active on the #YachtWatch trend on Twitter.

 

Gotta love it.  Now if we would only have the courage to do the same to non-Russian megayachts, things might improve drastically around here.

Last Call For Count, Trumpula

The Trumpies figured out exactly how to cheat the 2020 US Census tally, by undercounting Black folk, Latinos, and Native Americans by some 10 million combined, and then covering up the figure by overcounting white Americans by around the same number.

The 2020 census continued a longstanding trend of undercounting Black people, Latinos and Native Americans, while overcounting people who identified as white and not Latino, according to estimates from a report the U.S. Census Bureau released Thursday.

Latinos were left out of the 2020 census at more than three times the rate of a decade earlier.

Among Native Americans living on reservations and Black people, the net undercount rates were numerically higher but not statistically different from the 2010 rates.

People who identified as white and not Latino were overcounted at almost double the rate in 2010. Asian Americans were also overcounted. The bureau said based on its estimates, it's unclear how well the 2020 tally counted Pacific Islanders.

The long-awaited findings came from a follow-up survey the bureau conducted to measure the accuracy of the latest head count of people living in the U.S., which is used to redistribute political representation and federal funding across the country for the next 10 years.

Disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic and interference by former President Donald Trump's administration raised alarms about the increased risk of the once-a-decade tally missing swaths of the country's population. COVID-19 also caused multiple delays to the bureau's Post-Enumeration Survey that's used to determine how accurate the census results are and inform planning for the next national count in 2030.

Still, the bureau said previously that it believes the census results are "fit to use" for reallocating each state's share of congressional seats and Electoral College votes, as well as redrawing voting districts.

Census numbers are also used to guide the distribution of an estimated $1.5 trillion each year in federal money to communities for health care, education, transportation and other public services. Some tribal, state and local officials are considering ways of challenging the results for potential corrections that would be factored into future funding decisions.

 

Stat audits will be coming later, but I have to suspect that the figures that showed California lost population for the first time in decades while Texas earned multiple new House seats may not be 100% accurate.

 

The Trumpies cheated, deliberately, at everything, folks. Everything. That included, apparently, the 2020 US Census.

The Burned Bridges Of Madison Cawthorn

GOP Rep. Madison Cawthorn keeps getting into trouble again and again, and while he may be the youngest member of the House, he's learned the lesson that Republicans are never held accountable for any reason.

U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina told supporters he thought Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was a "thug"—a comment that runs counter to the overwhelming share of Republicans with a favorable view of the leader fending off a military invasion from Russia.

"Remember that Zelenskyy is a thug," Cawthorn said in a video obtained by WRAL. "Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and is incredibly evil and has been pushing woke ideologies."

It was unclear where the video was taken. Cawthorn had a number of events in the state over the weekend.

On Thursday afternoon, one hour after WRAL reported the comments, Cawthorn appeared to walk back his comments, saying on Twitter that Russian President Vladimir's actions are "disgusting."

"I am praying for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people," he added.

Cawthorn, who is running for reelection in the state's westernmost district, faces a string of primary challengers.

One of his 11th Congressional District opponents, Michele Woodhouse, called the comments out of touch and “boorish" and said she considers Zelenskyy "a hero."

Republican state Sen. Chuck Edwards, who is taking up a more ideologically centered lane in his primary bid against Cawthorn, clapped back on the congressman's remarks.

"Let’s be clear. The thug is Vladimir Putin," Edwards wrote on Twitter. "We must unite as a nation to pray for President Zelenskyy and the brave people of Ukraine who are fighting for their lives and their freedom. Anything less is counter to everything we stand for in America."

 

And if you think Cawthorn is going to pay for this in the primary this spring, understand that it doesn't matter at all.

North Carolina Congressman Madison Cawthorn is facing multiple charges after three separate traffic incidents in three different counties.

On Monday, Oct. 18, 2021, the North Carolina State Highway Patrol says just before 1 p.m. troopers conducted a traffic stop involving a white 2009 Dodge passenger vehicle for a speed violation on I-40 near mile marker 59 in Buncombe County. The driver, identified as David Madison Cawthorn, 26, was charged on a citation for traveling 89-mph in a 65-mph zone and was given a court date of Jan. 4, 2022, in Buncombe County District Court.

A few months later, on Saturday, Jan. 8, just before 6:30 p.m., troopers again stopped a 2009 Dodge passenger vehicle for a speeding violation, this time on US 74 in Polk County. The driver, Cawthorn, was charged with speeding 87-mph in a 70-mph zone and was given a court date of Monday, April 18 in Columbus.

Nearly two months later, Cawthorn was again pulled over, this time on Thursday, March 3 at approximately 10:30 p.m., this time in a 2019 Toyota, for a left of center violation on US 74B in Cleveland County.

According to Highway Patrol Spokesperson Sgt. Marcus Bethea, during the course of the investigation it was determined that the driver’s license was in a state of revocation and he was subsequently charged with driving while license revoked. Cawthorn was given a court date of Friday, May 6 in Shelby.

 

Again, Cawthorn has faced multiple issues in the 14 months he's been in office, not to mention his role in the January 6th seditious insurrection against the government hes a part of. But accountability is something that doesn't happen to Republicans.

Until that changes, we don't have a democracy at all.

Our Little White Supremacist Domestic Terrorism Problem, Con't

In an interview with NPR's Carrie Johnson, US Attorney General Merrick Garland says that the federal investigation into the January 6th seditious insurrection will not end "until we hold everyone accountable who committed criminal acts with respect to January 6."

On his first anniversary as attorney general, Merrick Garland said he's committed to unraveling the conspiracy behind the storming of the U.S. Capitol, in what he calls "the most urgent investigation in the history of the Justice Department."

Members of the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 riot have asserted former President Trump could be charged with conspiracy and obstruction for his actions. But Democrats in Congress and even some of Garland's friends have worried he'll shy away from the political firestorm that would result from charging a former commander-in-chief with a crime.

"We are not avoiding cases that are political or cases that are controversial or sensitive," the attorney general said in an exclusive interview with NPR. "What we are avoiding is making decisions on a political basis, on a partisan basis."

This week, prosecutors won their first convictions in federal court in a Jan. 6 case against former Texas oil worker Guy Reffitt. That followed a guilty plea to seditious conspiracy by an Alabama man affiliated with the far-right Oath Keepers militia.

"We begin with the cases that are right in front of us with the overt actions and then we build from there," Garland said. "And that is a process that we will continue to build until we hold everyone accountable who committed criminal acts with respect to January 6."

Garland discussed his wide remit, where the priorities range from price-fixing in the chicken industry to Russian oligarchs financing the war in Ukraine with ill-gotten gains. 

The sharp-eyed will note that the next question that must be asked is "Does the overwhelming evidence that Donald Trump conducted a conspiracy to defraud the US government and the American people rise to to the level of criminal acts?"

We'll find out the answer in the months ahead. Even if Republicans are able to kill the House January 6th Committee, and House GOP minority leader Kevin McCarthy has signaled several times that it will be among his first acts in January 2023 as Speaker if elected, the Justice Department will soldier on.