One Term Obama

My least favorite blogger, US News wrongmaster Jim Pethokoukis is at it again, saying the economy will doom Obama to one-term ignominy.

Just "one and done" for Barack Obama's presidency? Recall an ominous passage in his otherwise joyous election-night speech: "The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even in one term." Maybe the tone was suggested by one of Obama's economic advisers like Jason Furman or Austan Goolsbee. It's the battered economy, after all, that will be President Obama's greatest domestic policy challenge. As such, it will also be his greatest political challenge, too -- but one where failure may already be baked into the cake.

That's right, the "O" in "Obama" may stand for "One Term." For starters, there's a strong chance that when voters head to the polls on Nov. 2, 2010, they likely will still think the economy is awful. Not much debate about that. (Good chance the Democrats' two-election winning streak comes to an end.) And while voters may be somewhat patient for two years, patient for four years? Really unlikely. If history is any guide at all, voters may still be terribly cranky about the economy when they cast their ballots on Nov. 6, 2012 and thus likely choose the 45th president of the United States -- be it Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal or some other Republican without "Bush" for a last name. Once again a "change" election for an impatient America. The same bad economy that doomed John McCain in 2008 will have sunk Obama, as well.

Now, Jim is right when he assumes the economy is going to be bad for the next four years. He's dead right about that. He is wrong however in assuming that Obama will be kicked out of office because of it.

If Obama is able to convince voters that he's actively doing something about the economic disaster, and that he can say "Look, I'm doing everything I possibly can to fix this" and he has a specific plan ready to go on January 20, the public will work with him.

It was GOP's insistence that the economy was fine that killed John McCain's chances, not the economy itself. Bush made the same mistake, as did his father.