I'm Afraid You May Have a Toomey, Pennsylvania

If the you believe the lesson of Scott Brown is "There ain't no safe seats for the Dems" then this Rasmussen poll may be worth looking at.

Republican Pat Toomey now leads incumbent Senator Arlen Specter 49% to 40% in Pennsylvania’s race for the U.S. Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters also finds Toomey with a 43% to 35% lead over Democratic challenger Joe Sestak.

A month ago Toomey led Specter by four and Sestak by six. In the state’s Democratic Senate Primary race, Specter now leads Sestak by 21 points.

But here's something I overlooked however out of the Rasmussen camp this week that may be far more interesting from Rasmussen analyst Larry Sabato:

With Tuesday night’s upset by Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts, the GOP gained more than just a 41st vote to disrupt the Obama agenda. As attention turns to the midterm elections in November, the Republican Party has strong momentum. A few months ago, even GOP leaders said that taking over the Senate was a pipe dream, and it is still not probable. But as some independents sour on the Democratic Party, the possibility for a GOP majority can no longer be dismissed out of hand. More likely, next year’s Senate will still have a Democratic majority but be much more closely balanced between Democrats and Republicans.

In fact, it is likely that the Republicans will gain at least 3 to 5 Senate seats in November. Even more startling, in the aftermath of the Massachusetts special election, Republicans would do even better IF the general election were being held today. The Crystal Ball projects that the Democratic majority in the Senate would be reduced to just 52 seats if November’s contests were somehow moved to January. 
 
Luckily for the Democrats, the election is not today. By November the economy may be in much better shape, and some of the current controversies may appear less significant. Contests that would tip to the GOP today could easily wobble back to the Democrats (such as Missouri and Pennsylvania). That is why we still classify them as toss-ups overall.

At the same time, given Tuesday’s Bay State results, the Republican Party will search for, and possibly find, credible challengers for some Democratic senators believed to be safe until now. Imagining themselves as Scott Brown (on the victory stage, not in a Cosmo photo spread), a few “A” list Republicans might take a second look at the Senate and decide to jump in.

Among the senators who could be endangered by a new wave of Republican entries are Evan Bayh (Indiana), Kirsten Gillibrand (New York), Patty Murray (Washington), and Russ Feingold (Wisconsin).

Now that's interesting.  Rasmussen believes the Republicans would pick up 7 more seats:

Blanche Lincoln (AR)
Harry Reid (NV)
Mike Castle (DE)
Mike Bennett (CO)
Arlen Specter (PA)

...would all lose, and Obama's old seat and Byron Dorgan's seat in ND would flip to Mark Kirk and John Hoeven respectively.

48 Senate Republicans would put heavy pressure on Evan Bayh, Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman to flip parties like Specter did last year and give the Republicans 51, is the unsaid message.

I do indeed have to wonder.