- Palin wins the GOP nomination.
- Mike Bloomberg runs.
- Bloomberg carries coasts: NY, Cali, Florida, New England.
- Palin wins the deep South.
- Obama carries the rest.
- The rest, unfortunately is not 270 electoral votes.
- Matter goes to the House, which will be GOP controlled.
- They vote in Palin.
- World ends.
It's #3 there that I think is where the plan is going to fall through, if not #2 (Bloomberg stays out of it) or even #1 (GOP finds a new Golden Child for 2012). But that's just me. I personally think if the GOP gets control of the House and goes on their expected witch hunt, while Obama concentrates on trying to fix things, I think the GOP will eventually go over the line and remind everyone why they get tossed.
But Bloomberg carry NY, California and Florida? New York I can see. Cali? No way.
Still, new tag. Michael Bloomberg.
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I don't understand why Heilemann thinks Bloomberg has to win any states to throw the election to Palin. He's assuming blue states are unswervingly blue the way, say, red states in the Deep South are red. They aren't. Remember, Reagan won 49 states in '84. I can't think of a state in the union in which a Republican hasn't very, very recently won a statewide election. (Connecticut, California, and New Jersey have Republican governors, as did Massachusetts and New York until four years ago -- blue enough for you?)
Actually, Reagan won Massachusetts twice. How? John Anderson ran in 1980 -- and presumably his entire vote came out of Carter's hide. (He did quite well in Massachusetts, presumably among students.) That's what could happen if Bloomie runs -- whatever vote he gets will all come from Obama. He's a Jew and a New Yorker and a bachelor. He's passionately pro-gun control and he's defended the Islamic cultural center near Ground Zero. Swing voters ain't voting for him.
All this hideous speculation of how nightmarish the 2012 elections could be. I could predict an even crazier scenario than this... and STILL be completely wrong.
Just try to remember in 2006 "everyone knew it was going to be Hilary vs. Mitt in '08". Like that worked out well.
All these speculations operate on the assumption that Palin even WANTS to run in 2012. Why bother, when she's making more than enough dough as a Rally Queen and guest lecturer at the Christian College of her choosing?
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