The Blue Wave Rises, Con't

The latest Cook Political Report predictions for the Senate are good news for the Democrats, which is good because frankly, there are so many structural obstacles for Democrats to take back the Senate right now that the Republicans have a significantly better chance of holding the House than the Dems do getting the Senate.

It was a long, long shot earlier this month.  Now, it's just a long shot.

As the political environment continues to favor Democrats and likely to rob Republicans of their majority in the U.S. House and a handful of gubernatorial seats, the conventional wisdom is that the fate of the GOP’s Senate majority will rest more on political geography than the way the partisan winds are blowing. Maybe.

The map continues to favor Republicans as Democrats are defending 10 seats in states that President Trump carried, four of which are in the Toss Up column, while two others are in Lean Democratic. In keeping with the notion that geography is destiny this cycle, the one Republican-held seat (Nevada) that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 is in the Toss Up column. But, Democrats have managed to put three more Republican seats in play: the open seats in Arizona (Trump +4) and Tennessee (Trump +26), and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas (Trump +9) into play. This raises the question as to whether political geography really will dictate the fate of the Senate majority.

Generally, races in the Toss Up column don’t break down the middle; one party tends to win a majority of them. Over the past 10 cycles, no party has won less than 67 percent of all Toss Up races. In 2004, 2006 and 2014, one party won 89 percent of the races in the Toss Up column. The working theory for this cycle has been that if Democrats end up winning a majority of the Toss Up races, then the political environment proved to be the factor driving the election. If, on the other hand, Republicans wind up carrying a majority of the Toss Up contests, then political geography is indeed destiny. But, what if for the first time since we’ve been keeping tabs on the outcome of Toss Up contests, they did break down the middle? Usually, it’s easy to dismiss such an idea. It’s just not as simple this cycle. And, what would it say if the Toss Up races do break down the middle?

At this point, the overall political environment is not likely to change. The President’s approval rating, voter intensity, and the generic congressional ballot test are baked into the proverbial cake. The only real unknown factor is the fate of the Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. The allegations that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted a teenage girl in the 1980s have stalled the nomination process. There are about a dozen scenarios as to how this will play out and the situation seems to change with each day. Suffice it to say that both parties have made mistakes in their handling of the allegations and both sides are walking a bit of a tightrope.

The parties have very different views of how it will play out at the polls. Democrats believe that it will further energize their base. Republicans say that it is firing up their supporters. They may both be right, but Democrats are already energized, which raises the question of how much more the base can expand. It’s unlikely that Democratic voters can be more enraged than they already are. But, Republican voters haven’t been as energized, largely because many don’t believe that the party is really in danger of losing their majorities in the House and/or Senate, according to a survey Public Opinion Strategies conducted for the Republican National Committee. The fate of the Supreme Court is a huge issue for Republican voters, and they will go to the polls if they feel that Democrats have politicized the allegations against Kavanaugh, even if they believe Christine Blasey Ford's story. Some Democratic strategists say the allegations against Kavanaugh make it easier for most Democrats to vote against his nomination. At the same time, they are concerned about the fallout if the nomination drags on through October.

Which side has the larger obstacles, the Dems and the map, or the GOP and Trump?  We'll find out.  My gut tells me the most likely outcome is Dems pick up one net seat by winning Arizona and Nevada, but losing Indiana or North Dakota.  It could be much better, in that scenario if Dems win Tennessee, they control the Senate.

But to do that and hold on in the half-dozen seats they are in real trouble in, that won't be easy.

Vote.