The Blue Wave Rises, Con't

With a week to go until midterm elections, Republicans are in full and total panic mode as they move to try to hold increasingly vulnerable House districts in Southern states. Paul Ryan is headed here to try to save Republican Andy Barr's Lexington House seat from Democratic retired Marine pilot Amy McGrath, and if Republicans are relegated to defending states like Kentucky in the final week of the campaign, all bets are off as to how many dozens of seats they now expect to lose.

Ryan will be in Kentucky on Tuesday to campaign for Rep. Garland “Andy” Barr, whose 6th District stretches from Lexington to more rural areas. Former fighter pilot Amy McGrath has given Democrats hope of flipping the seat, despite the district’s naturally conservative tilt.

Meanwhile, the NRCC plans to launch ads Tuesday in South Carolina’s 1st District, an area along the coast including Charleston that has leaned conservative in recent federal elections. But Republican nominee Katie Arrington has had trouble putting away her Democratic opponent, Joe Cunningham.

Arrington, who defeated Rep. Mark Sanford in a primary defined by her support for Trump and the incumbent’s criticism of the president, has lost some GOP support to Cunningham, whose slogan is “Lowcountry over party” and who casts himself as a moderate.

C'mon, Republicans are now on defense in Kentucky and South Carolina?  It's going to be a bloodbath when we're done.

In Virginia’s 7th District, which Trump also carried, a new poll released Monday showed more possible trouble. The survey from the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University showed 46 percent of likely voters picking Democrat Abigail Spanberger and 45 percent choosing Republican Rep. Dave Brat.

The NRCC also hit the airwaves for the first time last week in Georgia’s 6th District in the Atlanta suburbs, where Democrat Lucy McBath has received help from well-funded gun control groups. Trump narrowly won the district.

“We’re not trying to cover the spread,” said NRCC communications director Matt Gorman. “We’re looking at victories.” He added: “The name of the game is volatility. And we’ve seen it on both sides.” 

Democrats have raised huge sums of money, prompting Republicans to warn about a “green wave” of Democratic dollars, even in districts where the GOP has established a strong presence.

McBath started the final weeks of the campaign with $565,000 in her account; her Republican opponent, Rep. Karen Handel, had $402,000 left to spend.

The NRCC hit the airwaves for the first time last week in Washington’s 3rd District in the southwest corner of the state. Trump won there by seven points. Democrat Carolyn Long capitalized on a strong primary vote by outraising Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler by nearly $1 million.

Even in Florida’s 18th District, where Trump won by nine points and Rep. Brian Mast outraised his Democratic challenger, former diplomat Lauren Baer, Republicans are not taking any chances. The NRCC went up with an ad in the district that stretches north from Palm Beach County last week.

KY-6 and VA-7 are knife-edge toss-ups and have contested for months.  But if Republicans are only now worried about SC-1, GA-6, FL-18, and WA-3 (and you can add Utah's 4th to this list as GOP Rep. Mia Love is now behind to Democratic Salt Lake City Mayor Ben McAdams) enough to commit an 11th hour defense to these districts, the GOP is now reduced to trying to stop a blue wave from becoming a total 2010-style wipeout.

I don't think they'll succeed.  With a week to go, we're still seeing the smart money on 35-45 Dem House pickups as an average and 55-60 if they overperform.

Five Thirty Eight now has Dems at 216 of the 218 they need to gain a House majority with more than 20 toss-ups left to fight over, another 16 "Lean R" seats in play and a whopping 49 "Likely R" seats that could fall, and it's these seats that the GOP is now moving to defend.  If the Dems get 80% of the toss-ups breaking their way, half the leaners and a quarter of the likely seats, that's 62 seats.  That's 2010 in reverse.

Guess who'a s also in trouble now?  GOP Rep. Steve King in IA-4.  Cook Political report has now shifted his race from "Likely R" to "Lean R".  King won in 2016 over Kim Weaver by 22 points, Trump won this district by 27 points two years ago.

Let's overperform.  Get out there and vote if you haven't already, and get somebody besides yourself to the polls while you're at it.