Impeachment Reached, Con't

Voters here in Northern Kentucky understand full well that Donald Trump's fate is in the hands of Mitch McConnell, and they not only expect him to engineer Trump's acquittal, they demand that he does it.  Anything less would be the end of his Senate career come November and everyone knows it.

As the process unfolds, the pressure on McConnell is expected to intensify. Several Republican senators - including Mitt Romney of Utah, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, the latter of whom is expected to face a tough reelection fight - have either expressed misgivings about their leader's intentions or said directly that they want key witnesses, including former national security adviser John Bolton, to testify.

"We have to take that step back from being hand-in-glove with the defense," Murkowski told an Alaska radio station late last month, adding that she was "disturbed" by McConnell's coziness with the administration on impeachment.

But for now, McConnell - who can afford to lose up to three votes while retaining a working majority - has the support he needs to call the shots. The political calculus on McConnell's home front offers him little room to compromise, even if he wanted to.

To Trump's backers here in northern Kentucky - the small cities, affluent suburbs and rolling hill country that fans out just across the muddy Ohio River from Cincinnati - that is just how they like it. Many have long been wary of McConnell, deeming him overly willing to cut a deal and insufficiently committed to the president's agenda. His management of the president's trial, they say, will be a test.

"How he handles this impeachment is going to be the big determinant of whether people get behind him," said Kevin Gordon, a talk radio host and activist.

Impeachment, Gordon said, was tantamount to "an active coup" and should be given as little credence as possible.

"They should dismiss the charges outright. It's a sham," Gordon said. "If McConnell runs the trial the way the Democrats want, people here are not going to be happy."

So far, conservatives said they like what they have seen.

State Sen. John Schickel credited McConnell for his "steady hand" and for staying, by and large, in the good graces of Trump voters who are "very, very, very passionate" in their defense of the president. But he also said McConnell is "walking a tightrope."

"He definitely has to watch his right flank. He's always had to," said Schickel, who recently penned an opinion piece describing 12 weeks of paid parental leave for federal workers, which was agreed to by McConnell's Senate, as "another step toward socialism."

"The party leadership in northern Kentucky is very conservative and doesn't always like what he does," Schickel said.

Last year's gubernatorial race offers a cautionary tale of what happens when a Kentucky politician, even a Republican one, takes the state's conservative voters for granted.

Bevin was infamous for his insults and bullying - especially of opponents, but even of Republican allies. That caught up to him as the governor sought a second term. Bevin won the primary, but in the general election, matched against a relatively moderate Democrat with a deep pedigree in Kentucky politics, many steadfast Republicans sat the contest out.

"Bevin treated his conservative supporters terribly," said Phyllis Sparks, a 58-year-old Republican activist who declined to vote for either of the top contenders in the governor's race. "He didn't represent me or my values."

Because of voters like Sparks, Bevin's support collapsed statewide, but most notably in northern Kentucky.

McConnell's not going to let witnesses happen.  It's entirely possible by this time next week, we'll be discussing the aftermath of Trump's acquittal.  McConnell knows that Matt Bevin lost in November because Northern Kentucky turned on him, specifically Boone and Kenton Counties.  He will not risk the same thing happening.  He's already unpopular here because he's not supportive of Trump enough for Republicans, and of course is the devil incarnate for everyone else.

We'll see what happens but it won't take long, however it plays out.