With the death of long-time Alaska GOP cash sponge Rep. Don Young, Sarah Palin is the by far most well-known name running for his spot in a crowd of dozens of comers, but that doesn't mean she's going to win.
The Matanuska-Susitna Valley, a lush patch of the state where the lakes are fed by glacial meltwater, is where Sarah Palin launched her political career three decades ago. In the heart of the state’s conservative movement, she rose from city council member to small-town mayor, before beating a sitting Republican governor and becoming the GOP nominee for vice president in 2008.
But to construction contractor Jesse Sumner, who was born and raised in the valley and in 2018 was elected to the local borough assembly on a platform of fiscal conservatism and gun rights, that’s all a distant memory overshadowed by what he sees as years of political neglect. Now, as Palin seeks a comeback in a run for Alaska’s only U.S. House seat, she won’t be getting his support.
“I think maybe she left us behind somewhere on the way to fame,” said Sumner, who has supported the candidacy of one of Palin’s opponents since last fall and is not changing his plans. He complained that Palin — who has spent much of the past decade as a right-wing celebrity, bouncing between reality TV, cable news punditry and the Trump movement — hasn’t been involved in Alaska politics since leaving office in 2009.
When she did show up at a Republican fundraiser last year, “everybody was surprised to see her there,” Sumner said.
Such sentiments, which voters and activists across the state shared in recent interviews, loom over Palin’s campaign for an open seat. It’s the first time in five decades that Republican Rep. Don Young, who died last month, won’t be on the ballot. The top four vote-getters in June’s nonpartisan primary will move on to a special election in August under a recently implemented ranked-choice voting system. Nearly 50 candidates have entered the race.
But none are as well-known outside Alaska as Palin, making the race a test of power of national political celebrity in a state where local relationships and reputations have long been crucial. She announced her campaign on April 1, two weeks after Young’s death, filing the paperwork to run minutes before the state’s deadline.
The campaign has also become a barometer of the influence of former president Donald Trump. Years before Trump was elected president, Palin embodied a similar brand of combative politics that fired up far right voters and alarmed many in GOP leadership. She supported him in 2016 and he has endorsed her this year, even as many key Republicans in the state have gone in a different direction.
When asked about Palin’s candidacy, Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski (daughter to Frank Murkowski, the governor Palin once defeated) touted the other four dozen candidates and said she couldn’t name the last time she saw Palin in Alaska, because it had been “years.” Murkowski also faces reelection this year, with Trump backing her main rival, Kelly Tshibaka.
Palin’s campaign did not grant requests for an interview with her. The campaign provided a written statement from an unnamed campaign adviser saying Palin “believes that America is at a tipping point and that the hard-working men and women of Alaska deserve a champion in Washington to fight for them against the destructive policies of the far left.” The statement echoed Trump in mentioning “fake news” and disdaining “Washington elites.”
But there are few signs of a detailed policy platform from Palin. Her campaign statement said she wants to help Alaskans “lead the next energy renaissance.” Her campaign website is thin on specifics and, instead, showcases photos of her in fishing bibs, horseback riding, and at Trump rallies. Her Twitter feed touts endorsements from national Republican figures such as former speaker of the house Newt Gingrich and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley.
Palin may still be crafting her strategy and message with only seven weeks until the primary, but University of Alaska Fairbanks political science professor Amy Lovecraft said the House campaign is surprisingly quiet in terms of advertising and events. She attributes that to the scramble caused by Young’s sudden death and adapting to the new nonpartisan primary format. Plus, she said, candidates with high name recognition may be biding their time, assuming they will make it through the first round.
“The people who think they have the best shot at Young’s seat may be saving their money for a knockdown, drag-out election later,” Lovecraft said.
Between this and endorsing J.D. Vance in Ohio's Senate race (and Herschel Walker in Georgia's Senate race), Donald Trump is larding the galley with real losers. We'll see if any of them can get past a primary.
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