Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Obama Defeats McCain

News outlets are calling it for Obama with him flipping Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio the big one...Virginia just called for Obama...297 EVs here at 11 PM.

He did it. He's our next President.

He did it.

A black man is our President. A man like me.

I'm choked up here watching the crowds.

Now the test begins. John Sidney McCain...not McSame...concedes.

New tags for the both of them. President Obama....McCain.

McSame Reads The Riot Act

In Toledo, OH police there have been instructed to have riot gear on hand for today and tomorrow according to the local NBC affiliate.
TOLEDO, OHIO -- Toledo police are gearing up for possible "Civil unrest" during and after tomorrow's elections.

In an internal memo obtained exclusively by NBC 24 News, officers are ordered to "Have their riot equipment with them Tuesday and Wednesday". Police chief Mike Navarre confirms, officers will have gear similar to the equipment they used during the 2005 race riots. "They have been asked to have their helmets and their gas masks available tomorrow and Wednesday.", Navarre says, "That's the equipment they would not normally carry with them on a normal day".

Navarre also says, officers will not be stationed at individual polling stations. But the memo says otherwise. It reads, "On Tuesday, units shall be directed to patrol the polling locations".

Now, why would that be?

The McSame campaign issued a statement this morning warning Americans that once again all the exit polls will be wrong.

As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.

However, we want to remind the campaign that the media's own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate's support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.

Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:

  1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.

  2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.

  3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.

  4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.

  5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.

After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.
the McSame campaign is already preempting the exit polls and saying they will be wrong, just like in 2004. They say 2008 will be similar. If the polls are wrong by 5.5%, this will be a lot closer than any of us can imagine. The McSame camp is already warning they will be off by similar amounts.

Now why would that be?

McSame's campaign is predicting wins in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida again despite the polls.

Eight hours in to his 20-hour day on the campaign trail, a confident John McCain has already predicted victories in the battleground states of Florida and Pennsylvania, even though the polls in both of those states are leaning towards Barack Obama.

"We're going to win Pennsylvania tomorrow and I'm going to be the President of the United States," McCain said. "Pennsylvania will do it, and Pittsburgh will be the important area."

His campaign manager Rick Davis outlined a strategy where McCain could conceivably come from behind and win both here and in Florida, because he believes the polls in the urban areas of those states are overrepresented.

"You look at Pennsylvania, for instance. He's underperforming Kerry in almost every one of the Kerry counties outside of Philadelphia. We're over performing Bush in almost in almost every one of the Bush counties in Pennsylvania. So, I mean, he's not getting the Democratic vote and we're getting more than our share of the Republican vote, but his margin in Philadelphia, again, very much like Miami, it's 40-plus. The last poll I saw had him plus 40 in Philadelphia," Davis said.

"Bush lost Philadelphia by 18 percent, so you're not going to lose it by 40. If you can figure out what I'll lose it by, you'll know whether or not I can win Pennsylvania."

Those numbers will depend on voter turnout, which is why McCain is hitting seven different states today to try and rally his base to turn out. He still has events in Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, and his traditional last stop in Prescott, Arizona, before calling it a day.

Now, why would that be? Why does McSame's camp think urban numbers are overrepresented and that the polls are wrong across the board, and that they are confident they will win today?

Part of that I explained yesterday. Anything short of an Obama landslide will be challenged in court. However, the plan works much better if McSame can mysteriously squeak by in the precincts he needs to squeak by in.

It's not a done deal yet folks. McSame fully expects to win. He is now counting on the exit polls to not match voter totals. Police have been warned across the country to be on alert for not just today but tomorrow as well.

Now, why would that be?

We're not just peeking at his cards. He's showing us his hand full-on and daring us to beat him. He's telling us the polls in Florida, PA, and Ohio are going to be wrong and he's going to win there.

He's telling us that something is rotten in the state of Denmark, OH, PA, FL, NC, GA, VA, CO, NV, NM, IN, MO...

These are all states close to that 5.5% Kerry 2004 "poll margin of error" the the McSame camp claims is normal. Hell, PA would have to be off by 8 or 9 points. But he's still claiming a win there.

Now, why would that be?

GO. VOTE. And while you're there, be on the lookout for anyone turned away. Ask them why they were turned away. Help them if you can. Give them your cell phone, let them call 1-866-OUR-VOTE.

And pray the election isn't already decided. Because a lot of people seem to think McSame is going to win tonight...a lot more than realistically should.

Now, why would that be?

StupidiNews, Election Day Edition


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