Friday, October 18, 2013

Last Call For Los Castigadores

The GOP must now exact revenge for its humiliation this week at the hands of President Obama and the American people, so those of you who supported the Democrats have to be put in your respective places.  Today's contestants in "Know your role and shut your mouth!" (the home version) are Latinos and other immigration advocates, as House Republican Raul Labrador makes painfully clear.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) "has said he is committed to advancing immigration legislation in this Congress but there is virtually no interest among GOP lawmakers to vote for the kind of sweeping bill that Democrats are seeking," USA Today reports.

Said Rep. Raul Labrador (R-ID): "It's not going to happen this year. After the way the president acted over the last two or three weeks where he would refuse to talk to the speaker of the House... they're not going to get immigration reform. That's done."

Added Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-KS): "That would really melt down the conference."

So yes, the Punishers are exacting revenge.  No immigration reform now, because that's the price The Punishers are making us pay because Obama made them look bad, rather than, you know, Republicans making themselves look like idiots.

Maybe America should stop voting for them, yes?  Because eventually, the group Republican Punishers will decide to target will include you.   And odds are between killing job bills, the economy, and shutting down the government, you've already been a victim.

The Cuccinelli Cuckoo, Clocked

In Virginia, a state where there are more than a few federal employees who were furloughed this month, Republican AG Ken Cuccinelli is now facing a decidedly uphill battle against Democrat Terry McAuliffe for the Governor's mansion.

A new NBC4/NBC News/Marist poll finds Republican Ken Cuccinelli slipping further behind Democrat Terry McAuliffe, 46 to 38 percent in the race for Virginia governor among likely voters. That’s 3 points wider than McAuliffe’s 43 to 38 percent lead a month ago -- before the shutdown. Libertarian Robert Sarvis gets 9 percent.

Virginia was one of the top states impacted by the shutdown -- with hundreds of thousands of federal workers, contractors, and military service members and retirees in the state. And a majority (54 percent) in the poll blames Republicans for the shutdown. Just 31 percent of likely voters blame President Barack Obama.

Four-in-10 – 39 percent – said either they or a family member has been affected by the shutdown, whether it’s employment, services or benefits.

Many say the shutdown will have an impact on their vote -- 38 percent of registered voters said it would have a major impact on it; 21 percent said it would have a minor one. Among respondents who said it has had a major impact on their vote, McAuliffe is winning them 55-27 percent. Among those who say it is a minor issue, McAuliffe also leads, 52-33 percent.

Cuccinelli only leads with those who say the government shutdown is not an issue, 49-36 percent.

I could have told you Rob Sarvis was going to cost Cooch the race months ago, but Rob Sarvis AND the shutdown means there's a very distinct possibility the guy may not break 40%.  Normally this is the point where the race tightens up (Americans love an underdog) but the shutdown is making that go the opposite direction.  Undecideds are running to McAuliffe and will continue to, is my bet.

McAuliffe may actually break 50% in this 3-way race when all is said and done.  Wouldn't that be something...

Some Cold Hard Reality

Let's keep in mind during the celebration dance here that America still elected the Tea Party nutjobs that shut us down in the first place, and odds remain extremely high that the vast majority of them will remain in power for a long, long time.  Nate Cohn lays it out:

So if the only facts I knew about this election were that it was 1) October of an odd-numbered year; 2) Democrats had an average lead of about 7 points on the generic ballot; and 3) the incumbent Democratic president had an approval rating in the low forties, I would not believe that Democrats were poised to retake the chamber.

And we know more about this election than those three facts. Here’s one fact: The newfound Democratic advantage on the generic ballot comes in at the height of a government shutdown, which could easily be as bad as it gets for the GOP. And yet even now, Democrats aren’t approaching 50 percent of the vote in generic ballot surveys. So if there’s no tsunami now, there’s plenty of cause to be doubtful that one will emerge later. The preponderance of undecided voters are Republican-leaners who voted to reelect their representatives last November; they’ll probably come home by Election Day.

Just consider the last 13 months. The president was reelected, Newtown, the fiscal cliff, gun control failed, the NSA and Snowden, the sequester, immigration reform stalled, Syria, and now a two-week government shutdown. Some of these things benefited the Democrats, others, probably more, benefited the Republicans. We live in interesting times, and memories of the shutdown will fade by November 2014.

They'll go back to the GOP for the same reason "moderate" House Republicans all voted to shut down the government.  They hate Obama and the Democrats more than they hate losing, and if their desire to see Democrats and their supporters punished wasn't white hot before, it's now burning a hole through the ground towards the center of the earth.

Some 95% of House members will be re-elected next year.  That will include the Tea Party, and that's just reality.


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