Last Call For A Long Night

Settle in, folks.  Odds are good we won't know who controls the Senate for days, if not months.

I'll have results tomorrow morning.

Barack Obama In The Runoff Man

Liam Donovan over at Ace of Spades Decision Desk brings up a very important point should tonight's elections in Louisiana and Georgia go to a runoff (as expected).  Will President Obama's post-election immigration decision affect these races?

After delaying his much-anticipated administrative action to spare vulnerable Democrats in the November elections, the President has promised to move on executive orders to legalize or otherwise stop the deportation of undocumented immigrants. He is expected to deliver on this promise during the lame duck, and with Republicans looking increasingly likely to take the Senate, time will be of the essence. Rumors suggest that he may push the move into December to spare Landrieu, a scenario conspicuouslyaccommodated by the demands of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. All of which points to a late December lump of coal in Nunn’s stocking to compliment the unwelcome gift that Obama gave her on talk radio last month. If the scale of Obama’s ambitions are anywhere near what the immigration hawks at Brietbart have suggested, Nunn would be dead in the water. In an economically fragile state where outsourcing attacks have surelydrawn blood, Georgia voters will not take kindly to anything seen as “executive amnesty.” 

Of course, Nunn could still win outright on election night, which would almost certainly be her best chance to put this race away. She benefits from a united Dem front, sharing a ticket and turnout operation with 4 CBC members (3 of whom represent majority-minority districts), a competitive gubernatorial nominee in state Senator Jason Carter (Jimmy’s grandson), and the last remaining southern Blue Dog in John Barrow. This broad-based synergy affords Nunn her best chance to summon the 30 percent African-American turnout she needs to have a chance, while at the same time attracting 30 percent of white voters. This math would be required to get over the 47 percent hump that Democrats bumped into in 2008. While Nunn is a far better recruit than the bland Martin, it is far from clear that she will be able to better his Obama-driven numbers, even with favorable demographic shifts in the interim. The President himself couldn’t match his 2008 showing campaign despite turning out a greater share of Georgia’s African-American vote during his re-election. Perdue has proved to be his own worst enemy in this race, giving Nunn a puncher’s chance of an outright win, but recent polls have shown him rebounding to the precipice of 50 percent.

In other words, if you're a fan of President Obama taking executive action on immigration, you should want Michelle Nunn to get 50% +1 tonight and obviate any need for a runoff.  You should want Landrieu to win outright in Louisiana too.  If both runoffs are avoided, then expect action sooner rather than later.

It's political, yes.  But that's how this shakes out.  That Georgia runoff especially would delay any action for at least two months, and you'd better believe the GOP will be running against OBAMNESTY the whole way.

The Once And Future Rand

MSNBC's Benjy Sarlin reminds us that the most important races in Kentucky today may not be Alison versus Turtle, but which party ends up controlling the Kentucky State House in Frankfort, and the aswer will have a direct impact on what Sen. Rand Paul does in 2016.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who is openly considering a presidential run, is not on the ballot this time, but his state’s legislative elections have enormous implications for his political future, however. Under Kentucky law, candidates are not allowed to run for two offices simultaneously, meaning that in order to run for president he would have to give up his seat in the Senate. Republicans are eager to change the law to accommodate him, but Democrats control the state house of representatives and aren’t having it. The GOP has been trying for years to flip the chamber and Paul is doing his part, but if they come up short the senator will have a hard decision to make about whether he wants to abandon his influential perch in Washington for a difficult presidential bid.

Right now the Kentucky State House is 54-46 Dems.  If the GOP can pick up 5 or more seats, then they can conceivably pass such a law.  That would put it in the hands of Dinosaur Steve for a possible, but his term is up in 2015.  That could mean that if a Republican wins in 2015 a new law could be in place in early 2016.  How soon Paul would need to decide would be one factor, given that campaigning for 2016 will effectively start Wednesday.

How that all shakes out, I'm not sure.

StupidiNews, Election Day Edition!

IT'S ELECTION DAY.
GO VOTE ALREADY.

You can find your exact polling place and hours here, courtesy of Google.

Please remember to take your driver's license or another form of ID.  If you live in a red state, make 3 just to be safe.