Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Barack Obama In The Runoff Man

Liam Donovan over at Ace of Spades Decision Desk brings up a very important point should tonight's elections in Louisiana and Georgia go to a runoff (as expected).  Will President Obama's post-election immigration decision affect these races?

After delaying his much-anticipated administrative action to spare vulnerable Democrats in the November elections, the President has promised to move on executive orders to legalize or otherwise stop the deportation of undocumented immigrants. He is expected to deliver on this promise during the lame duck, and with Republicans looking increasingly likely to take the Senate, time will be of the essence. Rumors suggest that he may push the move into December to spare Landrieu, a scenario conspicuouslyaccommodated by the demands of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. All of which points to a late December lump of coal in Nunn’s stocking to compliment the unwelcome gift that Obama gave her on talk radio last month. If the scale of Obama’s ambitions are anywhere near what the immigration hawks at Brietbart have suggested, Nunn would be dead in the water. In an economically fragile state where outsourcing attacks have surelydrawn blood, Georgia voters will not take kindly to anything seen as “executive amnesty.” 
Of course, Nunn could still win outright on election night, which would almost certainly be her best chance to put this race away. She benefits from a united Dem front, sharing a ticket and turnout operation with 4 CBC members (3 of whom represent majority-minority districts), a competitive gubernatorial nominee in state Senator Jason Carter (Jimmy’s grandson), and the last remaining southern Blue Dog in John Barrow. This broad-based synergy affords Nunn her best chance to summon the 30 percent African-American turnout she needs to have a chance, while at the same time attracting 30 percent of white voters. This math would be required to get over the 47 percent hump that Democrats bumped into in 2008. While Nunn is a far better recruit than the bland Martin, it is far from clear that she will be able to better his Obama-driven numbers, even with favorable demographic shifts in the interim. The President himself couldn’t match his 2008 showing campaign despite turning out a greater share of Georgia’s African-American vote during his re-election. Perdue has proved to be his own worst enemy in this race, giving Nunn a puncher’s chance of an outright win, but recent polls have shown him rebounding to the precipice of 50 percent.

In other words, if you're a fan of President Obama taking executive action on immigration, you should want Michelle Nunn to get 50% +1 tonight and obviate any need for a runoff.  You should want Landrieu to win outright in Louisiana too.  If both runoffs are avoided, then expect action sooner rather than later.

It's political, yes.  But that's how this shakes out.  That Georgia runoff especially would delay any action for at least two months, and you'd better believe the GOP will be running against OBAMNESTY the whole way.

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