Tuesday, November 4, 2014

The Once And Future Rand

MSNBC's Benjy Sarlin reminds us that the most important races in Kentucky today may not be Alison versus Turtle, but which party ends up controlling the Kentucky State House in Frankfort, and the aswer will have a direct impact on what Sen. Rand Paul does in 2016.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who is openly considering a presidential run, is not on the ballot this time, but his state’s legislative elections have enormous implications for his political future, however. Under Kentucky law, candidates are not allowed to run for two offices simultaneously, meaning that in order to run for president he would have to give up his seat in the Senate. Republicans are eager to change the law to accommodate him, but Democrats control the state house of representatives and aren’t having it. The GOP has been trying for years to flip the chamber and Paul is doing his part, but if they come up short the senator will have a hard decision to make about whether he wants to abandon his influential perch in Washington for a difficult presidential bid.

Right now the Kentucky State House is 54-46 Dems.  If the GOP can pick up 5 or more seats, then they can conceivably pass such a law.  That would put it in the hands of Dinosaur Steve for a possible, but his term is up in 2015.  That could mean that if a Republican wins in 2015 a new law could be in place in early 2016.  How soon Paul would need to decide would be one factor, given that campaigning for 2016 will effectively start Wednesday.

How that all shakes out, I'm not sure.

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