A couple of months ago I would have said that the Dems were in serious trouble. Now? With less that two weeks to go, it's looking more and more like the Dems will not only keep the Senate, but actually pick up a number of seats. Of course, to the Washington Post, that means that the races are "essentially tied" and that "Republicans are very optimistic."
In the battle for control of the U.S. Senate, there are now at least eight critical contests in which polling shows essentially a dead heat, encouraging Republicans’ hopes that they may yet snag the chamber, which very recently seemed beyond their reach.
Some of the GOP boost is coming from the top of the ticket in the form of Mitt Romney, whose recent surge in the polls seems to be helping Republican candidates across the country.
Democrats still have an edge in their effort to keep control of the Senate, and they may have been helped Tuesday when Republican candidate Richard Mourdock in Indiana suggested that pregnancies resulting from rape are God’s will, possibly damaging his chances to succeed Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R).
But both parties agree that many of the most important races have become more competitive in recent days, and their outcomes harder to predict.
Really? Let's take a look at the WaPo's own predictions. Right now it has the Dems getting to 50, with 6 toss-ups. That means in order for the Republicans to get control, they would have to win all six toss-up races and Romney would have to win the White House, making Paul Ryan the tiebreaker. How is that in any way "optimistic"?
There's no evidence that Romney's surge, being based on Obama's shortcomings in the first debate, had any effect on the Senate races at all.
I don't see it happening. Even the guys at Power Line, who all but have crowned Romney an easy win in November, are not seeing the GOP takeover of the Senate.
I still say the Dems will pick up a couple of seats. They could pick up 4, maybe even 5. It's just as likely as the GOP picking up the six they would need, right?