We'll have our full poll on the Wisconsin conflict out tomorrow but here's the most interesting finding: if voters in the state could do it over today they'd support defeated Democratic nominee Tom Barrett over Scott Walker by a a 52-45 margin.
The difference between how folks would vote now and how they voted in November can almost all be attributed to shifts within union households. Voters who are not part of union households have barely shifted at all- they report having voted for Walker by 7 points last fall and they still say they would vote for Walker by a 4 point margin. But in households where there is a union member voters now say they'd go for Barrett by a 31 point margin, up quite a bit from the 14 point advantage they report having given him in November.
It's actually Republicans, more so than Democrats or independents, whose shifting away from Walker would allow Barrett to win a rematch if there was one today. Only 3% of the Republicans we surveyed said they voted for Barrett last fall but now 10% say they would if they could do it over again. That's an instance of Republican union voters who might have voted for the GOP based on social issues or something else last fall trending back toward Democrats because they're putting pocketbook concerns back at the forefront and see their party as at odds with them on those because of what's happened in the last month.
That's right folks...not every union employee is a die-hard Democratic party operative. Plenty of blue collar workers and public employees like cops, firefighters and teachers have Republican party registrations, and they belong to unions. It's these folks who are feeling burned by Walker the most.
Does anyone think patrolling a city beat, running into a bruning building, or dealing with 35 fourth-graders all day is an easy job? These folks work damn hard and they know it, and now folks are discovering the Tea Party message of "work hard and keep what you earn" doesn't apply to workers in jobs a generation ago we called heroes. They're the ones being made to sacrifice, far more than the CEOs and corporate types.
They're figuring out what Democrats and and increasing number of independents already know: Republicans don't give a damn about workers.