Shutdown Countdown, Part 10

With news that Republicans may agree to a two-week extension of government funding, a new poll at The Hill shows 43% of Americans would equally blame both parties if there was a shutdown.

The Hill’s survey, conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, comes as lawmakers are heading into high-stakes spending negotiations that will seek to avert a shutdown.

Republicans have a substantial edge among independents: Thirty-four percent would blame Democrats, while only 19 percent would blame the GOP.

However, there are dangers for both parties, the poll indicates. A plurality of voters, 43 percent, would blame both Republicans and Democrats if the lights go out at midnight on March 5. Forty-five percent of respondents said neither party would benefit politically from a shutdown.

This compares to 14 percent who think Democrats would benefit and 18 percent who said Republicans would.

These numbers are fairly consistent when just Republicans, Democrats or independents are asked. Forty-seven percent of Republicans think that neither party would benefit, while 42 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of independents agree.

Some 29% of voters would blame solely the Democrats and 23% solely the Republicans if a shutdown happened.   That seems to indicate that whichever party looks like the adult in the room wins, and whichever party (or parties) look like spoiled kids will lose big time heading into 2012.  That situation favors Obama initially, but he's going to have to make his case instead of trying to stay out of the fight and leaving it to Dems in Congress without any backup.

It also indicates that the GOP's message that it's "Washington's fault" is clearly winning, unlike 1995-1996 where it quickly became the Republican's fault, specifically through Newt Gingrich.

But the bigger issue is that the forces of austerity have clearly won here.  Deep draconian cuts are coming in the federal budget, ones that will have a maximum impact on the poor and the elderly, and have minimum impact on the deficit.  If both sides get blamed for that, Obama's in real trouble.