So if the only facts I knew about this election were that it was 1) October of an odd-numbered year; 2) Democrats had an average lead of about 7 points on the generic ballot; and 3) the incumbent Democratic president had an approval rating in the low forties, I would not believe that Democrats were poised to retake the chamber.
And we know more about this election than those three facts. Here’s one fact: The newfound Democratic advantage on the generic ballot comes in at the height of a government shutdown, which could easily be as bad as it gets for the GOP. And yet even now, Democrats aren’t approaching 50 percent of the vote in generic ballot surveys. So if there’s no tsunami now, there’s plenty of cause to be doubtful that one will emerge later. The preponderance of undecided voters are Republican-leaners who voted to reelect their representatives last November; they’ll probably come home by Election Day.
Just consider the last 13 months. The president was reelected, Newtown, the fiscal cliff, gun control failed, the NSA and Snowden, the sequester, immigration reform stalled, Syria, and now a two-week government shutdown. Some of these things benefited the Democrats, others, probably more, benefited the Republicans. We live in interesting times, and memories of the shutdown will fade by November 2014.
They'll go back to the GOP for the same reason "moderate" House Republicans all voted to shut down the government. They hate Obama and the Democrats more than they hate losing, and if their desire to see Democrats and their supporters punished wasn't white hot before, it's now burning a hole through the ground towards the center of the earth.
Some 95% of House members will be re-elected next year. That will include the Tea Party, and that's just reality.
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