StupidiNews!

• Triple digit heat is expected to scorch the Northeast over the next several days.
• Tarballs have been found now as far westward as Galveston, Texas, and that has Lone Star State residents worried there may be more.
• Israel has relaxed the Gaza blockade somewhat ahead of today's meeting between President Obama and Israeli PM Nethanyahu.
• Rough times may be ahead for the Euro as some analysts see parity with the dollar.
• With the US government getting out of the helium business, stockpiles could shrink and prices shoot up like, well, a balloon.

Last Call

Been a long day, I've been out and about but this story caught my eye about our old friend Minnesota's other crackpot Republican, would-be Governor Tom Emmer.  He's got a great plan to help Minnesotans.

Minnesota state Rep. Tom Emmer, the presumptive Republican nominee for governor, has put forward a new policy for helping the state's businesses: Lowering the minimum wage for waiters and waitresses, and forcing them to rely more heavily on tips.

Minnesota is one of seven states that do not permit employers to pay less than the standard minimum wage to tipped workers. Federal law permits tipped workers' wages to be as low $2.13 per hour, with tips given to workers credited against the minimum wage of $7.25 an hour employers are required to pay. Emmer's proposal would get rid of Minnesota's law against using that credit, and thus bring the minimum wages for restaurant staff and other gratuity-based workers down to $2.13 per hour plus tips, a reduction of nearly two-thirds. Emmer said this proposal would result in a "level playing field so the employers can continue to exist, survive and thrive."

Yep, you heard that right, lower wages for waiters and waitresses because...they earn too much.  Knock $5 an hour off of people's pay because...I'm not sure why, what does this accomplish, again?  Last time I checked waitstaff aren't union employees or state employees, so how does this save Minnesota any money?  How does this help the economy since the whole problem right now is demand?  He wants to fight wage deflation by...cutting wages!

There's no state budget here to cut.  There's no union employees to blame.  This is just declaring that waiters and waitresses make too much money somehow, and they need to take a $10,000 yearly pay cut, I guess.

I guess since waiters and waitresses are all lazy welfare cases or whatever, we need to punish them.  That makes sense, right?

Destroying Afghanistan In Order To Save It

Meet the new, old boss in Afghanistan. Same as the old, old boss (as well as the old, new boss.)  Spencer Ackerman:

In a new letter to the troops and civilians of NATO’s International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, their new commander, General David Petraeus, underlined a point he made in his confirmation hearings last week: the overall task is to secure the Afghan people from harm, but the rules of engagement won’t stop you from finishing fights with insurgents.

“We must also continue our emphasis on reducing the loss of innocent civilian life to an absolute minimum. We must never forget that the decisive terrain in Afghanistan is the human terrain,” Petraeus writes today in the letter. “Protecting those we are here to help nonetheless does require killing, capturing, or turning the insurgents. …[A]s you and our Afghan partners on the ground get into tough situations, we must employ all assets to ensure your safety, keeping in mind, again, the importance of avoiding civilian casualties.”

(Note the addition of “turning the insurgents,” a tweak of the typical kill/capture formulation, indicative of the Karzai government’s desire to “reintegrate” or “reconcile” with Taliban and other insurgent forces.)

We must destroy the village in order to save it, yadda yadda.  This is where we're at after almost 9 years: still can't tell the good guys from the bad guys, so let God sort em out after the ordnance is done.

Same as it ever was.

The Kroog Versus The Coalition Of The Mean

Paul Krugman continues to beat the drum on America's unemployment situation, trying to convince people that this time it really is different.  How did we end up in an America where we're now trying to cut off the unemployed just as the second leg down in our economy begins to pick up speed (emphasis mine)?

The answer is that we’re facing a coalition of the heartless, the clueless and the confused. Nothing can be done about the first group, and probably not much about the second. But maybe it’s possible to clear up some of the confusion.

By the heartless, I mean Republicans who have made the cynical calculation that blocking anything President Obama tries to do — including, or perhaps especially, anything that might alleviate the nation’s economic pain — improves their chances in the midterm elections. Don’t pretend to be shocked: you know they’re out there, and make up a large share of the G.O.P. caucus.

By the clueless I mean people like Sharron Angle, the Republican candidate for senator from Nevada, who has repeatedly insisted that the unemployed are deliberately choosing to stay jobless, so that they can keep collecting benefits. A sample remark: “You can make more money on unemployment than you can going down and getting one of those jobs that is an honest job but it doesn’t pay as much. We’ve put in so much entitlement into our government that we really have spoiled our citizenry.”

Now, I don’t have the impression that unemployed Americans are spoiled; desperate seems more like it. One doubts, however, that any amount of evidence could change Ms. Angle’s view of the world — and there are, unfortunately, a lot of people in our political class just like her. 

It's the same folks who say America is a the greatest country on Earth, that its people are exceptional and destined, who talk about how special we are as a people, invariably they are the first to turn on their neighbors and say "I don't care if there's not any jobs out there, go paint fences and collect aluminum cans.  I'm not helping you.  Get a job you lazy bastard."

The deficit numbers are just an excuse to heap more misery upon the unemployed.  That's because a lot of people in Krugman's first two categories believe everyone who is unemployed still must be lazy, or trying to scam the system, or trying to fleece them personally.  It's a depressingly cynical worldview, and in reality that's just covering up for fears of something far more nasty:  that everyone who's still unemployed by this point is shall we say of a certain ethnic background.

That brings us to category three, which is not just populated by Republicans, either.

But there are also, one hopes, at least a few political players who are honestly misinformed about what unemployment benefits do — who believe, for example, that Senator Jon Kyl, Republican of Arizona, was making sense when he declared that extending benefits would make unemployment worse, because “continuing to pay people unemployment compensation is a disincentive for them to seek new work.” So let’s talk about why that belief is dead wrong.

Do unemployment benefits reduce the incentive to seek work? Yes: workers receiving unemployment benefits aren’t quite as desperate as workers without benefits, and are likely to be slightly more choosy about accepting new jobs. The operative word here is “slightly”: recent economic research suggests that the effect of unemployment benefits on worker behavior is much weaker than was previously believed. Still, it’s a real effect when the economy is doing well.

But it’s an effect that is completely irrelevant to our current situation. When the economy is booming, and lack of sufficient willing workers is limiting growth, generous unemployment benefits may keep employment lower than it would have been otherwise. But as you may have noticed, right now the economy isn’t booming — again, there are five unemployed workers for every job opening. Cutting off benefits to the unemployed will make them even more desperate for work — but they can’t take jobs that aren’t there. 

Now that makes perfect sense to me:  Our problem here is stimulating demand, not supply.  The supply siders have been in charge since 1980.  We've finally gotten to the point where all the supply side economics on Earth won't fix the basic problem where Americans just don't have the wages, the savings, or the equity to pay for things anymore.  No demand, tons of supply = deflationary death spiral.


 And we're lining up millions of jobless as human shields against that.

First Half Stats Look Grim

America's first six months of 2010 economic stats, that is.  Housing is in the crapper, jobs are starting to slip again and personal bankruptcy filings are on the rise as unemployment benefits are running out leaving hundreds of thousands in limbo.

Bankruptcy filings surged 14% during the first half of 2010, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. Filings totaled 770,117 through June, compared to 675,351 during the same period last year.

"Years of rising consumer debt and low savings rates, combined with the housing and unemployment crisis, are causing bankruptcy levels not seen since the 2005," said Samuel Gerdano, executive director of the institute, in a press release.

In 2005 Congress amended the Bankruptcy Code, making it harder for Americans to file and sparking a rush to file by October of 2005, when the amendments kicked in. In 2005, bankruptcy filings totaled more than 2 million.

By comparison, Gerdano expects there will be more than 1.6 million new bankruptcy filings by the end of 2010.

The institute also said that bankruptcies totaled 126,270 in June, a jump of 8.5% from the same month in 2009, when they totaled 116,365.

Expect that to keep rising, folks.  Families are starting to fall between the cracks now, and we're told this has to happen to save the rest of us, that we can't afford to help them anymore, that this will motivate them to take minimum wage jobs that will somehow make ends meet.

It's odd that our response to the biggest banks on Earth wrecking our economy is to blame the working-class people who got laid off.  They must be lazy, after all.  Real Americans I guess work three 40 hour minimum wage jobs.

StupidiNews!

• Initial figures on the massive A Whale oil skimmer ship may be in as early as today, indicating just how effective the cargo ship may be.
• The Governor of Wyoming is looking to sell part of the Grand Teton National Park if the Feds won't exploit the land.
• Mexico's opposition PRI party broke even in Sunday's election as the country continues to reel from drug cartel violence.
• Europe's central bank is the latest to call for austerity measures in the wake of deficits.
• The recently busted Russian spy ring was doing at least one thing right:  passing messages hidden in pictures called steganography.

Hot Dog Days Of Summer

You can't mention Joe Frazier in the history books without Muhammad Ali.  John McEnroe would never have risen to his greatness without Jimmy Connors.  Skeletor sure as hell needed He-Man, and just as American and Britain are forever linked by breaking apart on this day 234 years ago, Joey Chestnut needs Takeru Kobayashi.

He didn't compete for the hot dog eating title this year, but he did cause a scene at the contest.

Takeru Kobayashi was arrested at Coney Island after his rival, Joey Chestnut, won the annual Nathan's International Hot Dog Eating Contest.

The six-time champion of the contest was trying to make his way on stage after this year's event, according to a representative for Kobayashi and a New York police officer at the Brooklyn precinct booking desk.

This year's competition had already caused a stir after word that Kobayashi -- who took home the title every year from 2001 to 2006 -- would not be participating because of a contract dispute with Major League Eating. He watched from the stands.

Kobayashi was trying to prove he was better than other competitors, said Yuki James, one of Kobayashi's handlers.

Chestnut won by consuming 54 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes. The win -- Chestnut's fourth straight -- was short of his 68-hot dog record set last year.

The police officer said Kobayashi faces charges of resisting arrest, interfering with a police officer and disorderly conduct. Kobayashi was being held at the Brooklyn jail, the officer said.

In the days leading up to the event, Kobayashi said he loves the contest and he wanted to participate, but that the contract was too restrictive. Speaking through a Japanese interpreter, he said that all his income is earned through competitive eating. He said the new contract required by the competition would bar him from competing elsewhere in the United States or Canada for a year.

Both sides said contract negotiations went on until Saturday morning.

MLE chairman George Shea called Kobayashi's arrest "unfortunate."

"It makes you wonder what his thinking was," Shea said.

"Major League Eating made an enormous effort to get him into the contest," he added. "We wanted him there. Nathan's wanted him there. The fans wanted him there."

Have a safe and happy 4th, folks.  Have a hot dog while you're at it.

The Situation Is Beyond Our Controller

I talked about The Governator's plan to knock some 200,000+ California state workers down to minimum wage due to there being no 2011 budget on Friday.

Turns out that California's paymaster, State Controller John Chiang, has said that retooling the state's 1970's-era payroll system to handle the Governor's orders will take a little time.  Like, October, 2012.

Chiang cited Friday's ruling by the 3rd District Court of Appeals, which said "unfeasibility" would excuse him from complying with Schwarzenegger's minimum wage order. He said a fix to the state's computerized payroll system won't be ready until October 2012.

Meanwhile, more than 200,000 state workers remain in limbo about the size of their July paychecks while Chiang asks the court for guidance on how to proceed. If wages are indeed cut to $7.25 an hour, employees will be reimbursed once a budget is signed.

John Harrigan, who served as a division chief for the state's payroll services from 1980 to 2006, said upgrading the system would be complicated, time-consuming and expensive. He said it could be done, but not without violating the federal Fair Labor Standards Act and substantially altering the payroll process.

"It's not something that you can take lightly and do overnight," said Harrigan, who also served as chief deputy controller from 2000 to 2002. "You have all the collective bargaining for civil servants and (state universities) that have to be taken into consideration. ... It's very complicated. It would take considerable effort."

The state's payroll system was designed more than 60 years ago and was last revamped in 1970, Hallye Jordan, state controller's office spokeswoman, said in an e-mail.

A report by the nonpartisan legislative analyst's office said an overhaul of the state's computerized payroll system was proposed by the controller's office in 2004. A year later, the Legislature approved $130 million for the effort, called the 21st Century Project.

Work to complete the project has been postponed by the controller's office repeatedly over the past several years, said Lynelle Jolley, spokeswoman for the governor's Department of Personnel Administration.

"They had various setbacks that only they can explain," she said.

Harrigan said he was involved with the 21st Century Project when it was conceived in the late 1990s. He said the state fired the vendor executing the project in 2008 because the company went bankrupt.

In other words, it may cost more money to fix California's ancient payroll system than cutting state workers' pay would save on a temp basis, considering they would have to pay the workers the lost wages anyway.

California is pretty much deep into failed state status at this point.

That Whole Independence Thing

And as we celebrate America's birthday, let's keep in mind the details as to why we have a day off.

Every Fourth of July, Americans gather to celebrate the country's declaration of independence from ... um, what country was that again?

If you answered the above question with the word "England" or "Britain," you would be obviously correct. But a new Marist poll finds that more than a quarter -- 26 percent -- of Americans polled couldn't bring to mind the name of the country from whom the original 13 colonies gained independence.

Results were especially poor among the young: Of respondents aged 18 to 29, only 60 percent correctly identified Great Britain. A full one-third were unsure.

Maybe history class was too long ago. Or maybe, as the New York Daily News would have it, Americans are "pretty dumb."

Overall, 20 percent of the population answered "not sure" to the question, while six percent declared it to be a country other than Great Britain. "Among the countries mentioned are France, China, Japan, Mexico, and Spain," Marist reports.

Given the state of our economy, China may actually be a quasi-acceptable answer if we ever do get free of them.  But France?  Really?

Oy.

Last Call

Welp, got everything I need for a crock pot pork shoulder BBQ tomorrow.  Hope you all have a good day planned!



Because of course Independence Day means the Swedish Chef.

World Cupdate

Day 2 of the Quarterfinals brought us a pair of highly anticipated matches, Argentina vs. Germany and Paraguay vs. Spain.  First up, Zee Germans were loaded for bear against La Albiceleste, running a 4-2-3-1 attack with the powerful Miroslav Klose at point, to control the midfield against Diego Maradona's 4-4-2 attack featuring Higuain and Tevez.  Germany came off an absolute smashing of England, while Argentina was all smiles to see Brazil gone.  It took all of three minutes for Germany to draw first blood.  Thomas Muller pounded in a free kick at 3' and Germany then proceeded to systemically dominate the midfield, but Argentina would not be denied.  They slowly built momentum up against the German juggernaut and counterattacked when they could, relying on infernally fast break chances to thread the German defense.  Several opportunities just missed and by halftime we had a real match on our hands.  In the second half, both sides fought valiantly, Argentina was beginning to look like they could break through at any moment...and that's when Germany slammed the door on the Gauchos for good.  Klose blasted in a goal at 68' and Arne Friedrich added one at 74' to rip out Argentina's heart.  The Germans added a fourth goal, another from Klose, at 89' to put an exclamation point on it and to serve notice to all that this Cup belonged to them, and it was theirs to lose.  Argentina certainly was in no shape to argue as they were skunked 4-0.

Meanwhile in the late game, Paraguay took on Spain for the last Semifinal spot and and both teams were pumped.  Paraguay took a 4-4-2 squad into battle led by Valdez and Cardoso, while La Furia Roja spotted up a 4-3-3 attack with Iniesta, Torres, and David Villa in the middle.  The opening gambit belonged almost solely to La Albirroja as Paraguay worked to control the midfield early and did, patiently playing a counterstrike strategy against Spain's powerful offense.  Spain looked sloppy early and this allowed Paraguay to dictate the flow and played the long ball to try to burn Spanish keeper Iker Casillias, while Spain couldn't organize anything on offense with Paraguay's midfield swarming Villa and company, despite Spain's 2-1 advantage on time of possession.  Spain just couldn't manufacture a chance if it came with a kit and instructions.  Valdez dented the back of the net at 40' but a clear offisides meant it was all for show, and Spain just didn't seem to know what to do on offense, and Paraguay just sat there on defense.  The second half was more of the same, a battle for the middle that devolved into trench warfare.  Finally frustration bubbled over and the fighting began.  Pique yanked down Cardozo in the box for a penalty and Casillas took the shot for Paraguay only to see keeper Casillas vacuum the ball up.  But not 2 minutes later Alcaraz takes an arm to David Villa on the other side of the field and Spain got a PK!  Villa's shot sailed right into keeper Villar's arms, and both teams...went right back to trench warfare.  Finally, the fates took pity on the crowd and it was David Villa's pinball off both posts that found its way into the back of the net at 82' for Spain, and that was your winner, smartly sparing the universe from another 30 minutes of "game play".  Spain will face Germany, and the winner will take on either Holland or Uruguay.

My prediction here is that despite South American dominance in the event, you'll see Germany and Holland in the final match.  We'll see.

The Week Sauce

So, looking over the political weekly mag titled...well...The Week, it appears to be missing a few words from said title, as with the mag's contributors being the likes of folks on my blogroll, namely intelligent people I respect like Daniel Larison and Brad DeLong, well that's pretty good.  On the other hand, the outfit also includes obnoxious faux-centrist concern-trolling hippie-punching types like David Frum (Krugman is right but we need tax cuts anyway), Tish Durkin (Robert Byrd was history's greatest monster), and of course, Clinton operative Bob Shrum.

It's Shrum's article that epitomizes The Week perfectly.  He wants Obama to hold Congress over in August.

The president should announce the special session, lay out the agenda — and as Harry Truman did when he recalled Congress in the summer of 1948, challenge the Republicans to do “what they are saying they are for.”

On employment, even better-than-expected jobs numbers won’t be sufficient to persuade people that the worst is over. The millions of Americans whose unemployment benefits are running out can’t subsist on a trend. The Republicans in the Senate refuse to extend jobless benefits on the grounds that the cost can’t add to the deficit, that unlike GOP tax cuts for the rich, Bush’s prescription drug benefit, and two wars, it must be paid for. That’s stupid economics in the case of automatic stabilizers that are designed to generate demand and new jobs.

But the president and Democrats could split the difference here. Why not, for example, revive the $19 billion tax on banks in the Wall Street reform bill? Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown blackmailed Democrats to remove it — in exchange for his vote. But shouldn’t the banks that received hundreds of billions in taxpayer bailout funds pay something to help the unemployed whose livelihoods they shattered by their financial recklessness?

Almost certainly, the Republicans would filibuster anything like this — which would vividly demonstrate whose side they’re on. In fact, a special August session would give them opportunities to reveal themselves again and again.

The Republicans say that since the oil spill, the president and Democrats have done too little on energy; in truth the Senate GOP has blocked the energy bill. Give the party of “no” the chance to do the bidding of big oil and their big contributors — and to vote against the environment and energy independence — in the globally warmed glare of the August sun.

The xenophobes claim that anti-Hispanic profiling like the recent Arizona law is a reaction to the Obama administration’s failure to act on immigration. Never mind that Sen. Lindsey Graham and the few so-called moderate Republicans walked away from reform, along with Sen. John McCain, who appears willing to do anything to salvage his degraded career. Give the GOP the chance to rebuke racism and help pass a fair solution — or alternatively, to spew anti-Hispanic rhetoric and doom the party’s presidential prospects for a generation. 

Now, on the surface, this would be a good idea.  The problem is actually pretty simple:  The Republicans will simply block everything day after day.  This only works if the Democrats can actually pass the legislation in question, and barring that, it would only work if they don't get stabbed in the back by Ben Nelson, Evan F'ckin' Bayh, Joe Lieberman, etc.  Senate Dems voting against Obama's agenda only gives the GOP the opportunity to say "Hey, even the Democrats don't like this.  Clearly this must be stopped."

The problem with Shrum's logic is that the Republicans have already filibustered jobs legislation and everything else time and time again, and people refuse to call the GOP out on it.  Even worse, Democrats are helping them filibuster things.  Something like this is a waste of time unless the politics are there to pass the damn bills, and that's something Obama, Reid, and Pelosi have to do when Congress is actually IN session.

You don't pick a fight you're not going to win.  Getting beaten up doesn't make you a winner in politics.

The words missing from The Week's title are in Village Idiocy.

Oil's Well That Doesn't End Well For This Oil Well, Part 20

Now the worst environmental disaster in American history by more than a few measurements.

A Taiwanese supertanker skimmed oil from the Gulf of Mexico Saturday as the months-long disaster became the worst accidental spill on record.

Rough seas and strong winds continued to delay clean-up efforts, displace protective booms and push the oil deeper into fragile coastal wetlands, endangering wildlife preserves and the thousands of birds nesting there.

"This is going to be a very long and arduous clean-up operation in the days to come," said Coast Guard Admiral Paul Zukunft.

"I'm especially concerned with some of the wildlife habitats."

An estimated 35,000 to 60,000 barrels of oil per day has been gushing out of the ruptured well since the BP-leased Deepwater Horizon drilling rig sank on April 22, some 50 miles (80 kilometers) off the coast of Louisiana.

A containment system has captured about 557,000 barrels of oil, but rough seas have delayed the deployment of a third vessel which is set to increase capacity from 25,000 barrels to 53,000 barrels a day.

That means an estimated 1.9 to 3.6 million barrels -- or 79.5 to 153 million gallons -- of oil has now gushed into the Gulf.

Using the high end of that estimate, the spill has now surpassed the 1979 Ixtoc blowout which took nine months to cap and dumped an estimated 3.3 million barrels (140,000 million gallons) into the Gulf of Mexico.

Still no relief in sight.  Still weeks, months, perhaps longer until this thing can be contained.  Still untold damage to Gulf Coast states, to the people that live there and make their living off the ocean, and to the wildlife.

All of it preventable and unnecessary.

Again With The Kvetching

It seems that once again we've got folks in the back whining that the Hope And Change Train ain't moving fast enough, and DOOOOOOOOOOOOM is coming in November no matter what Dems do.

To be sure, things could change in the four months between now and November 2. The GOP's failure to get Republicans to vote in the May 18 special election in Pennsylvania's 12th District underscores that the party can't just sit back and await spontaneous combustion in terms of turnout. Still, the potential is here for a result that is proportional to some of the bigger postwar midterm wave elections. These kinds of waves are often ragged; almost always some candidates who looked dead somehow survive and others who were deemed safe get sucked down in the undertow. That's the nature of these beasts. But the recent numbers confirm that trends first spotted late last summer have fully developed into at least a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.

Digby has a theory on why that is. 

You can't help but wonder if the Democrats have decided that having the votes of "liberals, African-Americans, self-described Democrats, moderates and those living in either the Northeast or West" just aren't worth having so they are going to fight the Republicans for every last one of those John McCain voters. How else to explain the ongoing derision of their rank and file? ("They look like absolute idiots" is the quote that comes to mind.)

So does Greg Sargent. 

I tend to fall into the camp that holds that the Dem base's lack of enthusiasm is out of sync with the size and scope of the accomplishments racked up thus far by Obama and Dems. The excitement around Obama's victory was so intense, and the sense of a "big change moment" was so palpable, that people were bound to feel let down despite Obama's clearly historic achievements.

But reasonable or not, something is apparently turning off these voters in a big way.

Me, well, let's be honest.  There's a pretty large contingent out there that enjoys kvetching about how doomed we are, and it happens at the drop of a hat (or an Obama poll number.)  I'm here to remind you that instant gratification in politics just doesn't happen, folks.  It's not a short-term tactics "win the 24-hour news cycle" game, but a long term "build the foundation, shore it up, and then build upon that" kind of deal.

Look at the past.  The New Deal.  Civil Rights.  Women's Suffrage.  This stuff didn't get passed in 18 months and the world was magically better, it got improved in stages, fits and starts, suffered setbacks and challenges, and those were overcome through perseverance and effort.  Obama's smart enough to get that necessity dictates he play the short game as well as the long one, but the problem is he's playing them against each other.  Long term he wants to build the Democratic base.  Short term he wants to get Republican votes.

What Obama doesn't get is that there's zero way he can get Republican votes in the short term (at least not until he shows Republican voters that his long term plan is working for all Americans).  The economy is making that really, really hard.  The austerity hysteria as a result of that is making it near impossible.  Obama's going to have to make a choice here.

The Dems should be running on "Here's what we've done and why you should vote for us!" and not "So what are you going to do, vote Republican?  I didn't think so."

StupidiNews, 4th of July Weekend Edition!

• A newly passed gun ordinance in Chicago has some residents seeing red.
• A Ukranian cryogenics company gives a whole new meaning to the terms "brain freeze" and "White Russian".
• Scientists say that while you may enjoy fireworks, your pets may be pretty blue.
• BP is bringing in more equipment to declare their independence from their oil geyser.
• The mathematics of electromagnetic cloaking may be an American revolution.