What's the Why in South Ossetia?

The question people are asking now about the conflict in Georgia is "Why?" Why did the Russians come down like an Iowa tornado on Georgian troops?

There are two theories. One, the other, or both may be correct.

Theory one is that Russia is going after the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline which is the main moneymaker for the Central Asian former Soviet Republics to make money by delivering oil to the Med...oil that does NOT go through Russia. The West has been funding this project for 15 years now, and BP owns the pipeline.

Much like Russia continues to fund Communist Cuba on America's doorstep, we're trying to give Georgia an economic boost into capitalism. About 1/3 of the pipeline runs through Georgia. It's all about the oil.

Theory two is that it's not all about the oil, but the fact the Russians aren't going to put up with any more Kosovo situations. Sick of the West funneling arms and equipment into places like Georgia and setting up pro-Western dictators like Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgians thought the US would back them up if they made a play for South Ossetia. NATO made Kosovo off limits to the Russians and REALLY pissed them off. They have decided that it will not happen again. NATO will not claim Georgia.

The Georgians were wrong. The proxy war led to the proxy being smashed by the Russians. We left them out in the storm just like we did with the Iraqi Kurds, who got smashed by Turkey.

One, the other, or both may be correct. For theory one to be correct, Russia would have to occupy Georgia. This may be the beginning of a series of "annexations", the stuff of nightmares in the region, and the US being involved in yet another war.

But Russia may opt to do the same thing to send a message to the US on theory two...get your pro-Western governments off our back yard. This is our turf. We're daring you to do something about it. Theory two also looks strong. I think it's both economic and political, as they are often tied together with oil being involved.

Considering NATO is tied up in Afghanistan and the US is tied up in Iraq, Russia clearly feels it can operate with impunity in the region, and is feeling pretty burly right now.

The United States on Sunday accused Russia of trying to overthrow the government of the former Soviet republic of Georgia, where Russian troops have been battling Georgian forces over the breakaway territory of South Ossetia.

At an emergency session of the United Nations' Security Council, the U.S. alleged Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili "must go."

"This is completely unacceptable and crosses a line," said the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Zalmay Khalilzad, who made the allegation.

In a crackling exchange of a type rarely seen since the end of the Cold War, Khalilzad asked Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin whether the Russians were seeking "regime change" in Georgia with the military operation they launched Friday.

In response, Churkin objected to the disclosure of a confidential phone call between top diplomats and said "regime change" was "an American expression."

The Russians are now playing hardball with Georgia and with the West. They've seen the US get away with Iraq and Afghanistan now for years. Now it's their turn. This is what the Bush Doctrine has wrought upon realpolitik. Again, they are daring the world to do something about it. There's little it can do, frankly. The rapid expansion of NATO into Russia's turf has clearly been viewed as a hostile act. Russia has moved swiftly against Georgia given the excuse of bringing liberty to the Russian people of South Ossetia.

Given that we've got a lame duck President, an election year, and we're militarily tied up, Russia saw the brass ring and went for it. Whether it's for oil or territory or both, they moved.

Will they stop or keep going? Can the world even respond militarily? John McSame wants to clearly antagonize Russia further. But it's not the Georgians who were sent a clear message over the last four days. It was the United States. That message is "Get Out."

This is the inevitable next step in the Bush Doctrine: other powers will see what we did and copy it to their own benefit. McSame promises more of this. I'm not sure if Obama doesn't yet, but I believe McSame would actually be far worse.