MAVERICKED The Revengification

I'm glad I'm not the only guy who sees the wrecking ball coming at high speed this morning. Steven D at the Frog Pond:

McCain's campaign denies he has backed any plan, yet, but this smells like a doublecross to me, and we all know Steve Schmitt, McCain's campaign manager is a Rove protege who cares more about winning elections than doing what's best for the country. This so called plan (outlined on a one page handout given to reporters) is a mere election year ploy so these conservative Republicans and the McCain camp can run campaign ads blaming Obama and the Democrats for not taking action on "their" bailout plan, which they will claim would have cut your taxes.

It's cynical, its a non-starter with the Bush administration and it has no basis in reality much less any chance of successfully stopping the financial sector bleeding even if it could be passed. Just one example of how ridiculous this approach is: how do you know how much to charge a bank for this insurance program when you can't evaluate the value of the asset because you don't know the default risk of that asset? The answer: you can't.

In other words, this is a a typical right wing Republican solution. A gimmick that places party before country. Expect its proponents to get lots of airtime on the cable news shows, however. After all, these are very serious people with a "plan" to save the world. The fact that they are playing games with your financial future: Priceless.

Tristero at Hullabaloo:

In other words, what we need is someone to make everyone sit down and cut the bullshit. Just like St. John McCain says he is prepared to do with the real Shia and Sunnis. And don't for a minute think this September Surprise won't work with the hoi polloi.( Or that there won't be an October surprise even more grandiose and dramatic than this one.)

What to do? If they are truly serious about solving the financial crisis - which has the unfortunate aspect of actually being really real - then first, Congress should adjourn until that narcissistic idiot McCain is safely out of town. The second step? Blame McCain for any and all delays. The third step? Blame McCain. Get it?

This isn't about obstreperous Republicans blocking a needed financial bailout because it doesn't fit some whacked ideology. This is about a campaign bailout. McCain's campaign bailout. The focus must remain entirely on his manipulativeness and his deeply unserious meddling in affairs he has not the slightest ability to understand. Once he slinks away, the very serious business of what to do can be addressed.

And then it's time to blame House Republicans for being ideological dingdongs.

Clif at Sadly, No!:

The claim by the conservative dirtbags in the House that their “insurance” plan is kinder and gentler to the taxpayers seems to me to be a rancid stream of raw sewage being marketed as chocolate fondue. Without the full details of either plan, I could be wrong, but, in general, it seems that the “insurance” model is simply a way of giving more taxpayer money to the companies that created the mess.

The difference between the dirtbag proposal and the White House proposal is that under the dirtbag proposal, the distressed company holding a troubled mortgage-based asset gets a taxpayer-funded insurance policy for the full value of the asset in exchange for a small premium payment. Under the White House proposal the federal government pays an amount to the distressed company that will, at least temporarily, assuage the company’s financial woes in exchange for the troubled mortgage assets and an equity interest in the company.

Now compare the two results. Under the dirtbag proposal, if the mortgage-based asset performs, all the upside goes to the distressed company, and if it doesn’t, the taxpayers bear the full downside, potentially the entire “face value” of an otherwise worthless asset. Under the White House proposal, if the mortgage performs, the taxpayers may get more than they payed for the asset plus an appreciation in the government-held equity interest; if it doesn’t perform, the taxpayers’ liability is limited to the amount paid to buy the asset. The dirtbag proposal potentially costs the taxpayers more and gives the taxpayer no upside.

Granted the final dirtbag plan might continue provisions that mitigate or eliminate some of these problems. But the point is that on its face the insurance model will cost taxpayers more and provide all the upside to distressed companies. Or am I missing something here?

The question is once again:

1. Do the Dems fail to see the trap once more?
2. Will they fall for the trap?
3. Will they become trapped and be forced to fold?
4. Can McSame take advantage and use it to vault to the White House?

Unfortunately, I'm thinking the answers to all four of those are "Yes" and it pisses me off. As Digby says, the GOP started a frackin war on general principle. They'd rather let the market crash than admit their basic, fundamental economic policies have been precipitously wrong.

And once again the Dems have been right there with the assist, failing to do a damn thing about it over the last eight years. Why would they start now?

We're about to get MAVERICKED. McSame will swoop in when the time is right. The Bailout will not happen, and over the next couple weeks as Steven D says the "conservative Republicans and the McCain camp can run campaign ads blaming Obama and the Democrats for not taking action on "their" bailout plan, which they will claim would have cut your taxes."

The only question is how quickly the Dems will fold.

Given what I think's going to happen on Wall Street, the answer may be as soon as this weekend at the worst, but I honestly think we're going to the see the GOP use the same tactics we've seen before. Wall Street will crash over the next couple of weeks and the GOP will blame the Dems for it, the the Dems fold and GOP has "fixed" the economy THEY THEMSELVES BROKE. Checkmate.

With the overwhelming evidence of past performance of both the GOP and the Dems, I'm just not seeing other outcomes. Because the truly scary part is the things Preznitman were saying 36 hours ago are very real outcomes of this game of chicken. We could very well see a systemic meltdown from this, as I've been warning about for months now. It's not going to take much at this point, and the GOP is betting our country on the theory they can get enough political mileage to put McSame in the White House before a global systemic collapse happens.

Given the GOP's history of being off by orders of magnitude in their calculations, what do you think?

This is the BIG ONE, folks, that's what I think. It's happening now. The Crash of Ought Eight is upon us. Dow's down 100, Bush is screaming that he'll get the GOP in line, but it's too late. Not going to happen. They know their only political chance is to run against Mr. 26%.

Assume the position, folks. This is one game of chicken we're all about to lose.