Don't Sweat The Polls

As Chris Bowers reminds us at OpenLeft, the last week of this election is just statistical noise. Obama wins running away, it's only the degree of victory. Remember, the most lopsided popular vote victory was not either of Reagan's electoral "landslides", but Clinton's 8.5% in 1996.

Worried about "the tightening?"

Well, Obama's national lead has been stable at 7% for a month now. The national campaign is not tightening, and we are just seeing statistical noise.

Even if the campaign were tightening, Obama would still have a comfortable national lead. According to polling conducted over the weekend during the tracking poll "tightening," Obama reaches 264 electoral votes in states where he leads by 9.5% or more, passes 277 in Virginia where he leads by 8.0%, and hits 286 in states where he leads by 7.3% or more. So, he is actually doing even better in the Electoral College, where 270 votes are needed to win, than he is doing in national polls where he leads by 7%.

Obama has this thing. All we have to do is vote.