Home, Home I'm Deranged

Where the fear and the antipathy play...

The pace of sales of existing homes in the United States fell 3.1 percent in October to a 4.98 million-unit annual rate, while the median home price dropped to its lowest in more than four years, a National Association of Realtors report showed on Monday.

Economists polled by Reuters were expecting home resales to set a 5.00 million-unit pace. September's figure was revised downwards to 5.14 million from 5.18 million.

"Many potential home buyers appear to have withdrawn from the market due to the stock market collapse and deteriorating economic conditions,'' said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

The inventory of existing homes for sale slipped 0.9 percent to 4.23 million from 4.27 million in September. The median national home price declined 11.3 percent from a year ago to $183,300, the lowest since March 2004 when the median price was $183,200.

The percentage drop in prices was the biggest since the NAR started keeping records in 1968.

"We have favorable affordable conditions, but we need more than that to give buyers with jobs the confidence they need. Without home price stabilization, there will not be an economic recovery,'' Yun told reporters.

Ding ding ding!

Smartest piece of economic analysis you'll hear all year, right there.

Without home price stabilization, there will not be an economic recovery.

And as long as home prices continue to fall month after month, we're trapped in a deflationary spiral. Who's going to buy a home if the price is falling at 15-20% per year, guaranteeing negative equity in a few months and seeing an underwater mortgage in a year?

The problem is deflation now, not inflation. Particularly on long-term borrowing, deflation is going to be a killer on the markets. Less demand leads to price deflation, leading to higher unemployment as people are laid off, leading to even lower demand: the classic deflationary spiral.

The housing collapse is leading to trillions in deflationary pressure. Until housing stops falling, we're in trouble. The housing depression has gone on so long it's becoming self-perpetuating now, and that's the real danger.

Unless Obama can stabilize housing prices, everything else is spitting in the wind.