The Carrot And Stick Approach

We're now getting to the point of Israel's Operation Cast Lead where the current status quo, in this case Israeli air strikes, are all but exhausted as a tactical and political option. Valuable tactical targets will have moved or have already been hit, and politically the pressure on Israel to cease fire from both within and externally has grown considerably. The longer this goes on, the more Israel stands to lose.

With reports of Israeli forces interfering with humanitarian aid and the conflict giving Hamas a reason to be in the spotlight, the Israelis are considering calling a 48 hour truce to give humanitarian efforts a chance to work...but also to give Israel the opportunity to prepare a major ground offensive.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Tuesday that Israel's military offensive on the Gaza Strip would continue for as long as necessary to achieve the goals of the defense establishment against the ruling Hamas regime.

"The Gaza offensive has begun and will not end.... until our goals our reached, we are continuing according to the plan," Olmert said.

The prime minister's statement came in response to reports that defense officials intended to recommend a 48-hour truce to abate the war against Hamas and embark on a temporary truce before it became necessary to begin a significant ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.

The thing is, Israel now either has to commit to withdrawal or a major ground invasion in the next few days. Hamas is betting it can declare victory in either situation once again. Given the tough talk out of Olmert over the last few days, it looks like that ground offensive is a very distinct possibility.

Things could very quickly get a lot worse, and we've still got three weeks until Obama is even sworn in.